blp wrote:ozonepete wrote:cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track
AL, 95, 2013070800, , BEST, 0, 100N, 460W, 35, 1008, WV
Hmmm. That puts the center quite close to the developing convective concentration overhead. Also, it looks like this has started a jog to the west-northwest, which concurs with the NHC statement. That would bring it closer to the more northerly islands.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
What is your take on this possible WNW heading and it's future prospects. I am thinking the further south it stays will give it its best shot to survive. It is moving closer to the dry air and the shear will be bad above 15n when it gets to the Caribbean.
Well it really looks like the WNW heading isn't possible but rather actual right now. The NHC sees it that way and each best track position shows it. It isn't really moving closer to the dry air - the dry air is receding ahead of it. The shear is tricky - shear forecasts are notoriously bad so we can only wait and see, but the best chance of increased shear will be as it nears PR and DR. Given its current WNW heading and using the middle of the majority of the forecast tracks, it should move over the mid to northern islands of the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday / Wednesday. I personally don't like to make forecasts past that time because there is little forecast skill in the models that far out. But the gist of it is that this will be a strong TS or weak Cat 1 as it nears the islands and then it could right over or go just north or just south of PR and DR. If it goes over them, especially the great mountains of DR, it will get weakened quite a bit. Also, by that time there should be a trough developing over the eastern U.S. which could pull it north over or just east of Florida. All of that is just conjecture this far out in time. We just have to wait.
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
yes welcome as well madinina972. Luis (cycloneye) has given you good advice there. Please look at all of these locations to keep informed, and feel free to ask us what you need to know. 
