ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Time_Zone]

It honestly seems quite content just sitting where it's at right now.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Some hope for Texas in the WRF Model;



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[Alyono]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

my thinking is we dont see a TS until tomorrow and only slow development until Saturday. Then, once the shear decreases, we could see more significant intensification. Still looking for a cane landfall

[RL3AO]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

my thinking is we dont see a TS until tomorrow and only slow development until Saturday. Then, once the shear decreases, we could see more significant intensification. Still looking for a cane landfall

I should say not impressive in terms of intensity, but impressive in terms of structure. You are already seeing signs of improving structure on the south side of the storm.

[Time_Zone]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

my thinking is we dont see a TS until tomorrow and only slow development until Saturday. Then, once the shear decreases, we could see more significant intensification. Still looking for a cane landfall

Anti-cyclone should help with the small amount of shear.

Shear isn't going to be a serious issue imo

[Time_Zone]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-avn.html
Man this thing is a freakin mess.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains as TD.

AL, 10, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 938W, 30, 1005, TD

[TheStormExpert]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

my thinking is we dont see a TS until tomorrow and only slow development until Saturday. Then, once the shear decreases, we could see more significant intensification. Still looking for a cane landfall

I should say not impressive in terms of intensity, but impressive in terms of structure. You are already seeing signs of improving structure on the south side of the storm.

Are any of the models forecasting this to become a hurricane still?

[CrazyC83]

12/2345 UTC 19.7N 94.0W T2.0/2.0 10L -- Atlantic

[ozonepete]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/mflash-avn.html
Man this thing is a freakin mess.

You must not have seen many tropical depressions if you think this is a mess, lol.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains as TD.

AL, 10, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 938W, 30, 1005, TD

ATCF made an update on the pressure on the 00z Best Track.Down from 1005 mbs to 1003 mbs.

AL, 10, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 938W, 30, 1003, TD

[ozonepete]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

my thinking is we dont see a TS until tomorrow and only slow development until Saturday. Then, once the shear decreases, we could see more significant intensification. Still looking for a cane landfall

I should say not impressive in terms of intensity, but impressive in terms of structure. You are already seeing signs of improving structure on the south side of the storm.

Yup. It has been trending towards a nice circular symmetry and is sitting right in the middle of the BOC. It looks like outflow is really starting to improve as shear drops. What shear there is on the northern side seems to only be aiding outflow right now instead of hurting the symmetry and vertical stacking. If it doesn't move much it is in a pretty good place and environment to intensify at a decent pace.

[TheStormExpert]

New Video Discussion by Tropical Tidbit's Levi Cowan:
TD #10 to Strengthen for Days over Water before Hitting Mexico – Could Become a Hurricane
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2013/09/13/td-10-to-strengthen-for-days-over-water-before-hitting-mexico-could-become-a-hurricane/

[Alyono]

I think we could wake up to an impressive system in the morning. Overall banding is improving by the hour.

my thinking is we dont see a TS until tomorrow and only slow development until Saturday. Then, once the shear decreases, we could see more significant intensification. Still looking for a cane landfall

I should say not impressive in terms of intensity, but impressive in terms of structure. You are already seeing signs of improving structure on the south side of the storm.

may have a TERRIBLE structure tomorrow. Shear may actually increase. Conditions are marginal and should remain that way through Saturday.

NHC is off this time when they say very favorable conditions. 20 KT of shear is not very favorable

[MaineWeatherNut]

may have a TERRIBLE structure tomorrow. Shear may actually increase. Conditions are marginal and should remain that way through Saturday.

NHC is off this time when they say very favorable conditions. 20 KT of shear is not very favorable

That's a pretty bold thing to be saying... You may be a pro but if you think you know more then the NHC then why don't you get a job working for the NHC?

[Alyono]

may have a TERRIBLE structure tomorrow. Shear may actually increase. Conditions are marginal and should remain that way through Saturday.

NHC is off this time when they say very favorable conditions. 20 KT of shear is not very favorable

That's a pretty bold thing to be saying... You may be a pro but if you think you know more then the NHC then why don't you get a job working for the NHC?

Because I already have a job in the field, thank you very much.

[Tireman4]

may have a TERRIBLE structure tomorrow. Shear may actually increase. Conditions are marginal and should remain that way through Saturday.

NHC is off this time when they say very favorable conditions. 20 KT of shear is not very favorable

That's a pretty bold thing to be saying... You may be a pro but if you think you know more then the NHC then why don't you get a job working for the NHC?

I am GLAD all of the pro mets are here. Thank you to all that are here. That, my friend, is a very bold thing to say. I am glad they speak up.

[ozonepete]

may have a TERRIBLE structure tomorrow. Shear may actually increase. Conditions are marginal and should remain that way through Saturday.

NHC is off this time when they say very favorable conditions. 20 KT of shear is not very favorable

Shear forecasts in general are pretty varied for this TD's environment. Most have anywhere from 5-15 knots from now thru tomorrow night but I do see some forecasts increasing to 20 knots on Saturday. So I would say tomorrow shouldn't be a problem but Saturday might. Meanwhile, we know how poor shear forecasts (and even current analysis) can be - there are too few cases where it's pretty obvious what the shear will be. This is definitely a case where it's hard to tell, so as we often do we just have to watch and wait if the forecast models come to more of a consensus on how shear will turn out by Saturday.

[MGC]

TD 10 looks to be sitting under fairly OK upper level conditions. However, the shear to its north is high due to the ULL over lower Texas. I would not expect any rapid intensification due to the depression's close proximity to land. It should slowly intensify though. Something to watch the next few days.......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Hammy]

may have a TERRIBLE structure tomorrow. Shear may actually increase. Conditions are marginal and should remain that way through Saturday.

NHC is off this time when they say very favorable conditions. 20 KT of shear is not very favorable

That's a pretty bold thing to be saying... You may be a pro but if you think you know more then the NHC then why don't you get a job working for the NHC?

Because I already have a job in the field, thank you very much.

The shear is already showing up, over the last several hours the stronger storms that had formed were blown off to the east and weakened, and a dry slot appears to be opening up immediately to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rbtop-long.html