ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

September 02, 2013; 6:42 AM

A system entering the Caribbean could bring flooding downpours to Puerto Rico by midweek.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

['CaneFreak]

9/01 12Z Yesterday - Has since been removed from the TFCA page.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

I totally agree with NHC's decision to lower to 20 % this morning and wish they would have done it yesterday.

Tropical-Cyclone Formation Alert

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... i&PROD=gif

[Sanibel]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

I don't consider myself a stationary person but thanks anyways.

[cycloneye]

Well,it looks afterall that Puerto Rico instead of Hispanola may be on the track of whatever this may be.

[tolakram]

this is from HurricaneDave, sounds ominous:

It could move between pr and / dr. When this system enters the bahamas it will have moved toward the weakness in west atlantic/bahamas. Conditions will favor rapid intensification by day 5. Beyond that it is speculative on where this goes and how strong and ignore the blue lines.

HurricaneDave Discov Everyone in hispanola/pr/cuba and east coast should be mindful to closely watch this system given the seemingly favorable conditions and no apparent shortcoming of ingrediants to intensify this.

Who is HurricaneDave and what makes him an authority on tropical cyclones? Does he have a good track record of accuracy?

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of 97L by Dr Jeff Masters. Is pretty long but hits all the important factors.

A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west to west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Monday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased in organization since Sunday, and is spread out over a larger area, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the atmosphere has moistened since Sunday. The 12Z Monday balloon sounding from Barbados in the southern Lesser Antilles showed less than 10 knots of wind shear and a moist atmosphere. Wind shear was in the moderate range and the atmosphere was drier in the northern Lesser Antilles at Guadeloupe.


Forecast for 97L

Wind shear is expected to be low for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. A key factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days is the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts.

The models have shifted markedly in their projected path for 97L, and now take the system more to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. A track over the high mountains of that island would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on on Thursday, after it has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning's 06Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble--which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks--foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. However, a number of storm tracks from the 00Z Monday GFS and ECMWF ensembles foresee a more westerly track for 97L over Eastern Cuba, which would further disrupt the storm. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Monday and Tuesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Southeast Bahamas on Thursday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and dropped the 2-day odds to 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L on Tuesday.

[NDG]

Dry air in the mid levels is having the best laugh at me, I woke up at 6 AM, looked at the satellite which showed building convection near the vorticity north of Barbados and I thought it was a sign that it was getting organized, I took a break from the laptop to come back now and see that there is barely a pop corn shower near the vorticity.
97L has everything working for it for it to strengthen but the dry mid levels is keeping it in tap. The GFS and Euro might be correct after all in that nothing will get much organized until this whole mess gets closer to Hispaniola/Bahamas area, away from the dry MDR.

[tolakram]

Anyone have a link to mid-level water vapor imagery for the Caribbean and west Atlantic. The CIMSS product barely reaches the islands.?

[Alyono]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

The EC is not a graveyard. One really needs to stop listening to the disproven John Hope Rule

Earlier in the thread I posted the 12 storms that formed in the last 10 years in the EC. That means we average 1.2 storms there a season

[cycloneye]

The squadron folks still are planning to fly Air Force plane and Nasa Global Howk on Tuesday.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 02 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
 VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
 TCPOD NUMBER.....13-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
 FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
 A. 03/2100Z
 B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
 C. 03/1500Z
 D. 16.0N 63.0W
 E. 03/2030Z TO 03/2330Z
 F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION @ 04/2100Z NEAR
 19N 67W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

 3. REMARKS: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
 MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
 A. NASA 871 TAKE-OFF: 03/1100Z
 B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-
 C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1100Z, 03 SEP
 D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
 E. IP: 1500Z, 03 SEP; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
 F. EP: 0600Z, 4 SEPT; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
 G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
 H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 04 SEPT
 I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM
 J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
 K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF TD
 CIRCULATION IN BOX BOUNDED BY 25.0N 68.0W
 17.0N 68.0W, 14.0N 55.0W, 19.0N 52.0W
 FOLLOWED BY BUTTERFLY WITHIN REGION OF
 CONVECTION ~ 200 NM RADIUS FROM 18.0N 67.5W
 4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- BACK TO BACK GH MISSIONS:
 A. NA871 LANDING, 1100 Z, 04 SEP
 B. NA872 TAKE OFF 1500Z, 04 SEP

[tailgater]

I don't see anything out there, the large broad criculation seems to magically dis appeared in the last 18hrs. something may become of the complex to the east but as I see it 97L is gone gone gone!
But I'm just a gawker.

[jlauderdal]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

The EC is not a graveyard. One really needs to stop listening to the disproven John Hope Rule

Earlier in the thread I posted the 12 storms that formed in the last 10 years in the EC. That means we average 1.2 storms there a season

this needs a sticky..comes up every year

[psyclone]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

The EC is not a graveyard. One really needs to stop listening to the disproven John Hope Rule

Earlier in the thread I posted the 12 storms that formed in the last 10 years in the EC. That means we average 1.2 storms there a season

Half of your 12 storms were crammed into 2 seasons (2005 and 2008). that really skews the numbers. I think Mr Hope was onto something.

[NDG]

The stationary people were right. I can't believe it. A staller here is more likely to move north. However a staller here is not good for development because the graveyard will more likely crush it - especially in 2013. Circulation is 9/10th of the law so we'll see if it survives.

The EC is not a graveyard. One really needs to stop listening to the disproven John Hope Rule

Earlier in the thread I posted the 12 storms that formed in the last 10 years in the EC. That means we average 1.2 storms there a season

I agree with you, IMO the graveyard in the eastern Caribbean only happens on certain years and or certain times of the year, like you said many storms have formed here or have moved through this area without a problem.

[lester]

this is from HurricaneDave, sounds ominous:

It could move between pr and / dr. When this system enters the bahamas it will have moved toward the weakness in west atlantic/bahamas. Conditions will favor rapid intensification by day 5. Beyond that it is speculative on where this goes and how strong and ignore the blue lines.

HurricaneDave Discov Everyone in hispanola/pr/cuba and east coast should be mindful to closely watch this system given the seemingly favorable conditions and no apparent shortcoming of ingrediants to intensify this.

Who is HurricaneDave and what makes him an authority on tropical cyclones? Does he have a good track record of accuracy?

You and I both know he doesn't

[ninel conde]

this is from HurricaneDave, sounds ominous:

It could move between pr and / dr. When this system enters the bahamas it will have moved toward the weakness in west atlantic/bahamas. Conditions will favor rapid intensification by day 5. Beyond that it is speculative on where this goes and how strong and ignore the blue lines.

HurricaneDave Discov Everyone in hispanola/pr/cuba and east coast should be mindful to closely watch this system given the seemingly favorable conditions and no apparent shortcoming of ingrediants to intensify this.

Who is HurricaneDave and what makes him an authority on tropical cyclones? Does he have a good track record of accuracy?

he frequently posts on wxrisks facebook. he did drop his seasonal numbers to 11/2/1 i think long before anyone but me did.

[ninel conde]

Dry air in the mid levels is having the best laugh at me, I woke up at 6 AM, looked at the satellite which showed building convection near the vorticity north of Barbados and I thought it was a sign that it was getting organized, I took a break from the laptop to come back now and see that there is barely a pop corn shower near the vorticity.
97L has everything working for it for it to strengthen but the dry mid levels is keeping it in tap. The GFS and Euro might be correct after all in that nothing will get much organized until this whole mess gets closer to Hispaniola/Bahamas area, away from the dry MDR.

its the cap at 10k my good friend.

[blp]

We have a flip today from yesterday. Today we have greater vorticity at the mid levels and a disorganized voriticity at the lower levels. I think today that mid level vorticity will work its way down. This delay in my opinion has only helped this system to further avoid the shear associated with that ULL over Hispaniola that continues to move west.

Also, I don't see any organized vorticity at any level with the blob further East. The action, if it is going to take place will be around Barbados today.

Now


24 hours ago

[alienstorm]

What I see happening here is that the LL disturbance north of Barbados will be approached by the new LL disturbance (part of TW) east of it and they will combine their energy and kick off the development. Once this happens (24 - 36 hours) then it will move to the WNW over PR and close to the SE Bahamas. There it will sit again and slowly drift while the pattern changes (trof lifts out and ridge builds in over it) after that the storm will start to intensify and pose a potential treat to Florida to South Carolina.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.