ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

2013: Been there, seen that.
Wave near Cape Verde looks good, develops; maybe into a TD or named storm and then runs into areas not conducive for development or hostile.
Yet another with 98L.
We will stay tuned.
Certainly not complaining about the lack of threats this season!

Exactly. Look at Narda in ePac for example. Forecasted to become a hurricane, yet stopped at 65 mph.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO is with no change in the %.


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[HURAKAN]

looks like it has dried up

[blp]

[img]https://scontent-b-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/1385141_625821897440271_788246826_n.jpg

looks like it has dried up

Looks like another case of a 2013 overhyped system on the models. I think the Euro has the right idea in keeping this week for several days. It may find a more favorable area west of 55.

[Sanibel]

Good. I already used up two out of three of my prediction for remaining named storms.

[wxman57]

I remain completely unimpressed with the appearance of this disturbance on satellite and in TPW loops. It looked more impressive yesterday.

[Ntxw]

Latest satellite loop of 98L. Dmax did nothing for it.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update

Stu Ostro and Michael Lowry, The Weather Channel

Oct 8, 2013 6:21 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

INVEST 98-L


The broad area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic has changed little in organization Monday evening. Although the environment ahead looks favorable for development, organization will likely be slow over the next few days. A large eastward moving atmospheric disturbance will produce an unfavorable wind pattern that should stunt 98-L's growth in the near term.

It's worth noting that only 9 tropical systems have ever formed east of 35 W this late in the season (98-L is currently near 27 W). Of those, none has ever made it across the Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N27W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W
AND 27W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 5 KNOTS.

[HurrMark]

30%/40%...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[gatorcane]

Not looking nearly as good today...and of course models have trended more west with this system now that they think it will stay weak with the ECMWF taking it through the NE Leewards now. First question though: will it ever develop?

[hurricanes1234]

Not looking nearly as good today...and of course models have trended more west with this system now that they think it will stay weak with the ECMWF taking it through the NE Leewards now. First question though: will it ever develop?

As you would probably know, I am slightly pessimistic with these overdeveloped systems. I don't think this would develop, as can be seen by increasingly unfavourable conditions. Not official.

[Hammy]

As soon as I saw the GFS do what it did with it initially, that pretty much told me right there that it wouldn't develop.

[hurricanes1234]

As soon as I saw the GFS do what it did with it initially, that pretty much told me right there that it wouldn't develop.

Exactly, nothing new. Skeletal convection struggling with dry air and exposing an ill-defined circulation that appears to only be deteriorating. One of the countless tricks of 2013. That is why the ACE is so low, we have these failing invests back to back like this, and only weak tropical storms that add no more than 2 units. You can just say Humberto and Ingrid and that makes up over 80% of the season right there.

[TJRE]

still has legs.... IMHO


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

NHC Floater
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/98L_floater.html

TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Eumetsat
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/




Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

still has legs.... IMHO

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/7342/bpzz.gif
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

NHC Floater
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/98L_floater.html

TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Eumetsat
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/


http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/5311/lxaa.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

But no arms. Or eyes. Maybe it'll grow some eventually, who knows.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO...AND REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ConvergenceZone]

Doesn't the fact that this Isn't developing at the moment mean that it's going to continue westward as opposed to shooting north or northwest out to sea like it would do if it did develop?

[Hammy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL982013&starting_image=2013AL98_4KMIRIMG_201310081715.GIF

It looks like its really trying to develop, there is decent rotation and convergence, but it'll probably look that way up until the time it almost develops and probably go poof.

[stormkite]

Just my 2 cents it's been like watching ground hog day every potential system is getting hammered by sinking dry air. And the cooler than normal waters of Portugal have had negative affect on development durring the season.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.