ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[gatorcane]

take that back on the NAV.....at 120hr in the central GOM...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png

NAVGEM makes a hard right with this system and sends it ENE across the GOM into the West Coast of Florida...

144 Hours:

[N2FSU]

12Z GEM; 90hr

[ROCK]

144hr....NAV into Tampa...front just deep enough to pull it out...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png

[N2FSU]

12Z NAVGEM; 132hr

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM actually similar to the GFS which shows a big bend area of Florida hit. GFS is a little more north.

GFS 129 hour image below:

[N2FSU]

12Z NAVGEM; 144hr

[stormlover2013]

Like I said earlier models have a hard time on fronts and troughs!!

[N2FSU]

Just to follow it through, 12Z GEM at 180hr. Looks like it continues ENE and emerges off the NC coast then redevelops a little.

[tolakram]

Keep your eye n the vorticity charts, not just the pressure charts IMO. Vorticity is all strung out, making this look non tropical.

Amateur Analysis follows ...

12Z GFS 850MB vorticity http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091712/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl.html

Looks like it almost heads into Mexico as a tropical entity, then gets scattered around and leaves some in the Gulf while something forms moving up the front.



Then at 192H it appears something might be developing at the end of a front.



Looking at the shear for the same time periods (and remember how bad shear forecasts are), you can see the first Florida hit really looks frontal in nature, but in the second it's feasible that it may be tropical.







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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Okay, well i'm a slow and deliberate typist LOL, but I'd guess the NAVGEM outlines what my above thoughts were. Anyway, ultimimately still has so much to do with whether 95L can join the Cruise tourists in Yucatan and just stay awhile rather than just "eat and run" LOL. Its getting more interesting now that the GFS in getting more on-board with with this possible solution. C'mon 12Z Euro!. Things might get interesting here!

[chaser1]

..what a mess I am, LOL...meant the following for this thread, but originally stuck in the discussion thread...."mess fixed"

Not sure who mentioned it (may have been from the 95L Discussion thread), but I would agree with a prior observation made this a.m., that 95L just doesn't look like its moving all that quickly. That, and its increasing organization might be causing pressures to further drop a bit and thus potentially aiding a temporary slow down or stall. That all said, I'd throw out all of the dynamic models at the moment at least until they might get a somewhat better handle of this system after a few runs. I might guess that a somewhat deeper and more organized system that perhaps exits the W. Yucatan Penninsula a few degrees further north might cause the dynamic modeling to better (or at least differently) analyze how this might gain more latitude in light of the possible breaking down of the ridging in the Northern Gulf. Timing IS everything, and if 95L were somehow able to sit and simmer for an additional day with not too much westward advance, than I could easily see a forming storm just entering the S.W. Gulf potentially moving towards the N.W. or even NNW.

Such a scenario could be a potential hurricane threat to the Central Texas coast, and perhaps depending on the timing of the trough that will be swinging through, could well even "push" the storm suddenly off to the East or ENE. I'm trying to remember such instances from the past but seem to think that those few circumstances that I remember something like that, there were also increasing upper level westerlies that impacted some shear (unless the system was negating that shear by its own changed forward motion). I recall other later season storms that responded to an approaching trough that just started to become baroclinic...but that was likely end of Oct. or Nov.

Bottom line, any near term increasing development along with a stall, slower WNW motion than anticipated, or simply a formation a little further north than earlier anticipated might make a significant impact in what comes out of this. How 95L develops might also prove out why some models were more robust on developing one single system that eventually threatens some part of the Conus, verses other models seeing a weaker and more southern forming system that follows Ingrid's path just to have yet another area of residual vorticity to then slide north along or ahead of the Eastward front over Florida.

[Frank2]

It might form, but it might not - it seems further inland (south) than Ingrid, so perhaps it'll just continue to be a part of the monsoon trough, and in the meantime here in South Florida we're in the September doldrums of thunderstorms at any time of the day or night and variable winds - our pre-Fall weather pattern...

[ROCK]

hard to go against the EURO....takes whatever into MX at 72hrs...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=072

96hr just off the coast in the BOC...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=096

[Stormcenter]

In 3 days .....I have to see that to believe it. IMO

The thing is barely crawling right now.

hard to go against the EURO....takes whatever into MX at 72hrs...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=072

[ROCK]

120hr EURO stringing this out along the MX Coast...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013091712&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

[tolakram]

144 hours has a low moving NE now, while what looks like the frontal low mess is impacting the big bend area. Vorticity (from a pay site) is fairly compact.

[tolakram]

Hmmm,

192 is stalled. Vorticity looks better, but pressure looks higher. What an odd run so far. Meanwhile mess in Florida can be seen as a low pressure area well to the east.

[cycloneye]

18z BAMS Guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130917 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130917 1800 130918 0600 130918 1800 130919 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 88.3W 18.7N 89.7W 19.5N 91.2W 20.0N 92.7W
BAMD 18.1N 88.3W 18.4N 89.6W 18.8N 91.0W 19.2N 92.5W
BAMM 18.1N 88.3W 18.5N 89.6W 19.0N 91.1W 19.4N 92.6W
LBAR 18.1N 88.3W 18.5N 89.3W 19.4N 90.6W 20.4N 92.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130919 1800 130920 1800 130921 1800 130922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.7N 94.2W 22.2N 97.0W 22.4N 98.5W 21.6N 100.2W
BAMD 19.7N 94.1W 20.6N 96.8W 20.6N 98.6W 19.9N 100.6W
BAMM 19.9N 94.2W 20.9N 96.8W 20.9N 98.3W 20.1N 100.0W
LBAR 21.8N 93.3W 25.2N 94.8W 27.0N 92.9W 27.1N 89.2W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 75KTS 80KTS
DSHP 46KTS 59KTS 34KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 87.8W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 87.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Wx_Warrior]

HWRF...front picks it up. BLOWS it up. Then heads NE



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tolakram]

12Z Euro 240H aiming towards the northern Gulf coast.



http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013091712&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240