ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 011213
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1213 UTC SUN SEP 1 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130901 1200 130902 0000 130902 1200 130903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 60.5W 14.6N 62.6W 14.4N 64.6W 14.2N 66.2W
BAMD 14.6N 60.5W 14.9N 62.3W 14.9N 64.0W 14.9N 65.6W
BAMM 14.6N 60.5W 14.5N 62.4W 14.1N 64.2W 13.9N 65.8W
LBAR 14.6N 60.5W 14.9N 63.0W 15.1N 65.3W 15.3N 67.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130903 1200 130904 1200 130905 1200 130906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 67.9W 14.6N 71.5W 16.5N 76.1W 18.0N 81.1W
BAMD 15.2N 67.4W 16.7N 71.6W 19.0N 76.1W 21.1N 79.9W
BAMM 13.7N 67.5W 14.6N 71.3W 16.4N 75.8W 17.9N 80.5W
LBAR 15.6N 70.0W 17.0N 74.8W 19.9N 79.4W 22.9N 82.8W
SHIP 55KTS 70KTS 78KTS 82KTS
DSHP 55KTS 70KTS 78KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 60.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 57.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Shear doesn't look like a big problem.

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 8 6 11 2 9 4 13 6 10 9

Code: Select all

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
 * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
 * INVEST AL972013 09/01/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 55 64 70 75 78 82 82
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 55 64 70 75 78 82 82
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 45 53 63 75 87 96 102 103Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 8 6 11 2 9 4 13 6 10 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 0 1 -3 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 224 188 193 175 163 165 167 155 130 140 213 198 237
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 153 153 154 153 150 147 148 148 151 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 146 149 148 150 148 146 144 145 144 146 144
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 12
700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 57 58 62 65 63 64 60 62 61 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 28 29 35 52 64 69 69 68 61 44 33
200 MB DIV 34 43 33 22 19 29 18 29 30 22 25 12 -3
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 0 2 4 1 0
LAND (KM) 425 419 422 400 378 368 282 228 237 279 161 76 234
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.5 62.4 63.3 64.2 65.8 67.5 69.2 71.3 73.5 75.8 78.2 80.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 43 39 42 43 48 48 44 48 51 43 50 39 58

 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0
 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)

 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
 -------------------------------------------------- --------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
 SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -6. -8.
 PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
 THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
 GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
 -------------------------------------------------- --------
 TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 34. 40. 45. 48. 52. 52.

 ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 12 UTC **
 ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

 ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 12 UTC ##
 ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
 ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/01/2013 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

[ronjon]

Models are shifting south and westward. Land interaction in the Caribbean doesn't look to be an issue now. Looking more and more likely to be a GOM issue down the road.

[RL3AO]

Models are shifting south and westward. Land interaction in the Caribbean doesn't look to be an issue now. Looking more and more likely to be a GOM issue down the road.

Not surprised. Models have a habit of developing systems too quickly causing an early northward movement.

[perk]

Models are shifting south and westward. Land interaction in the Caribbean doesn't look to be an issue now. Looking more and more likely to be a GOM issue down the road.

wxman57 mentioned 97L being a GOM storm in a post yesterday.

[jinftl]

Interesting for sure....let's see if other models jump on board and if there is consistency between model runs

[tolakram]

Don't forget the UK has been on board for a while now.



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

The latest GFS vorticity map takes the maximum vorticity in the same general area as the other models, but then keeps it weak and moving west.

[ninel conde]

based on the season so far unless the GFS and euro both show a well defined tropical storm it must be considered below climo to develop.

[gatorcane]

Check out this loop of the 12Z GFS 250MB upper-level flow:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090112/gfs_uv250_atl.html

You will see a swirl over Hispaniola. That is an Upper-Level low (ULL) that is the main thing I can see right now that will try to hold back development as it is causing SW shear over the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea.

As we go out over the next several days, you will see the ULL moves W then WNW and dies out over Cuba/NW Caribbean area.

But look at the big upper-high that builds in over the Caribbean with center over Hispaniola by day 5.

That upper-high is conducive for development. Thus, conditions look like they will improve for this invest over the next several days especially once it gets into the Western Caribbean.

Despite the fact the GFS and ECMWF don't develop it (yet), I think chances are increasing of development of this invest.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

does the 12Zgfs show any actual development?

[perk]

Check out this loop of the 12Z GFS 250MB upper-level flow:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090112/gfs_uv250_atl.html

You will see a swirl over Hispaniola. That is an Upper-Level low (ULL) that is the main thing I can see right now that will try to hold back development as it is causing SW shear over the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea.

As we go out over the next several days, you will see the ULL moves W then WNW and dies out over Cuba/NW Caribbean area.

But look at the big upper-high that builds in over the Caribbean with center over Hispaniola by day 5.

That upper-high is conducive for development. Thus, conditions look like they will improve for this invest over the next several days especially once it gets into the Western Caribbean.

Despite the fact the GFS and ECMWF don't develop it (yet), I think chances are increasing of development of this invest.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gatorcane that ull you mentioned is already moving west.

[blp]

Check out this loop of the 12Z GFS 250MB upper-level flow:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013090112/gfs_uv250_atl.html

You will see a swirl over Hispaniola. That is an Upper-Level low (ULL) that is the main thing I can see right now that will try to hold back development as it is causing SW shear over the Eastern and Central Caribbean Sea.

As we go out over the next several days, you will see the ULL moves W then WNW and dies out over Cuba/NW Caribbean area.

But look at the big upper-high that builds in over the Caribbean with center over Hispaniola by day 5.

That upper-high is conducive for development. Thus, conditions look like they will improve for this invest over the next several days especially once it gets into the Western Caribbean.

Despite the fact the GFS and ECMWF don't develop it (yet), I think chances are increasing of development of this invest.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gatorcane you can see on the loop below that ULL is moving west at a good clip and I don't think it will be much of a negative factor soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[Alyono]

I suspect the canadian is turning this north too quickly because f the phantom cyclone immediately to the NE... that weakens the ridge more than it will weaken

[Hammy]

based on the season so far unless the GFS and euro both show a well defined tropical storm it must be considered below climo to develop.

once again, the GFS has an extremely poor track record this season and has successfully developed only a small number of systems that have actually developed globally while overdeveloping others, while it was pointed out that the Euro has an only 8% success rate of catching a system before, while the UK (which has shown development for a few days now) has the highest success rate. Euro is best once a system has actually developed, and is best on track primarily. Why your insistence on using faulty or incorrect data?

--

satellite shows a very well defined rotation, though it is still unclear if there is a well defined LLC. Martinique radar shows the rotation too. This is definitely the best looking wave that has been out there possibly all season so far, certainly post-July. And if anything convection seems to be expanding while shear is decreasing.

Probably won't develop in the next day or two but it could be like a few of the systems in 2010-11 that were strong waves when they went through the Lesser Antilles and developed later in the western Caribbean.

A small side note, which could be completely meaningless, but if you look closely at 14/59, the cloud flow changes near the end from SSW winds to WSW winds, so could a circulation be developing closer to the convection?

[Rgv20]

12zGFDL Ensembles like 97L! My thinking of 97L track is on the southern side of the GFDL Ensembles, between the bottom 2 tracks. In my opinion the GFDL Ensembles may be a tad too fast with the speed of 97L.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has a hurricane just south of Hispanola.

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET by day 6 has 97L in the NW Caribbean.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[gatorcane]

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1734 UTC SUN SEP 1 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130901 1800 130902 0600 130902 1800 130903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 59.7W 14.6N 61.5W 14.7N 63.1W 14.7N 64.7W
BAMD 14.6N 59.7W 14.7N 61.4W 14.6N 63.1W 14.8N 64.8W
BAMM 14.6N 59.7W 14.4N 61.4W 14.2N 62.9W 14.1N 64.5W
LBAR 14.6N 59.7W 14.6N 61.2W 14.8N 62.9W 15.1N 64.8W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130903 1800 130904 1800 130905 1800 130906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 66.5W 16.6N 70.7W 18.6N 75.5W 19.8N 80.2W
BAMD 15.2N 66.7W 17.1N 70.9W 19.4N 75.3W 21.3N 78.5W
BAMM 14.4N 66.1W 15.8N 70.1W 17.9N 74.6W 19.3N 78.6W
LBAR 15.7N 66.8W 18.0N 71.7W 21.1N 76.3W 24.3N 78.4W
SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 85KTS 87KTS
DSHP 63KTS 76KTS 85KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 56.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SFLcane]