ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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southerngale
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#41 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:12 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Swing where?

ROCK wrote:I am sniffing a major model swing at 0Z on some of the big boys....

Towards the lone star state....yesterday it was season cancel on thge board, today its two invests


Huh? He has consistently said that he thought it was a BOC issue, like some of the models have been showing. I haven't seen ANYONE post that they thought it was a Texas issue, except possibly the North MX / Deep South TX area.
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#42 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:14 pm

I took "towards the lone star state" to mean Texas :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#43 Postby bamajammer4eva » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:22 pm

Levi mentioned that this could get buried in the BOC and sit there for a while waiting for a trough to come pick it up if one comes down far enough. Sounds like something that's happened before. Note for example how far this storm moved from the 27th of Sept until the 3rd of Oct. I'd say it was buried!

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#44 Postby perk » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:25 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:I took "towards the lone star state" to mean Texas :double:



South Texas maybe.
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#45 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:29 pm

SHIPS shear is meaningless as it is using the BOC BAMM track
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Re:

#46 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:34 pm

Alyono wrote:SHIPS shear is meaningless as it is using the BOC BAMM track


I agree, it is totally meaningless.
We are going to have to wait until they switch it to the TVCN or to the official forecast track by the NHC once we have a TD formed.
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#47 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:34 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:I took "towards the lone star state" to mean Texas :double:

Yeah. Texas is the Lone Star State. That's why I responded the way I did. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#48 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:40 pm

0Z NAM out.....same as before....BOC bound....does send the FL panhandle some thunderstorms.....

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#49 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:47 pm

Gale, I have south texas/north Mexico favored. (Not by much, but it is a legitimate scenario)

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#50 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:50 pm

It stalling in the BOC and then getting picked up is worrisome. We have seen storms really strengthen and find nice conditions in the BOC. It could sit around and ramp up before being guided north into a weakness. Not saying it will happen, just that it could end up being the worst scenario rather than it just going North or West into land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#51 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:51 pm

Steve wrote:Gale, actually I have south texas/north Mexico favored. (Not by much, but it is a legitimate scenario)

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Yeah... I started to edit to add " except maybe Deep South Texas / North Mexico," but I didn't. I think I will now. My point was still the same, though. :)
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Re:

#52 Postby bamajammer4eva » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:55 pm

BigB0882 wrote:It stalling in the BOC and then getting picked up is worrisome. We have seen storms really strengthen and find nice conditions in the BOC. It could sit around and ramp up before being guided north into a weakness. Not saying it will happen, just that it could end up being the worst scenario rather than it just going North or West into land.



I would really think that would be more likely in late September/October but the way this year has gone with the persistent trough in the East, you never know.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#53 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:58 pm

ROCK wrote:0Z NAM out.....same as before....BOC bound....does send the FL panhandle some thunderstorms.....

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


It has actually has shifted northward from previous runs, could be the start of it trending towards the GFS :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#54 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:22 pm

For some reason that NAM Loop never loads for me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#55 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:26 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:For some reason that NAM Loop never loads for me.


Or me. The screen just stays grey.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#56 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:26 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:For some reason that NAM Loop never loads for me.


Or me. The screen just stays grey.


Same here, thought it was just my computer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#57 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:30 pm

NDG wrote:
ROCK wrote:0Z NAM out.....same as before....BOC bound....does send the FL panhandle some thunderstorms.....

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


It has actually has shifted northward from previous runs, could be the start of it trending towards the GFS :)


it stopped at 84hr sort of strung out but still in the WGOM. I will give you that.... :D

but really need to watch it as it sits in the WGOM....the NAVGEM a few days ago suggest this solution then a ride up the coast to STX....FIM9 a few days ago had mid-TX coast and Upper TX coast, West LA....

TAFB changed their map.....
HPC DISCO
NWS out of Miami DISCO suggest BOC / MX solution....so do these guys...
NWS CC
NWS NO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#58 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:30 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:For some reason that NAM Loop never loads for me.


Or me. The screen just stays grey.


Same here, thought it was just my computer.


not loading here either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#59 Postby canetracker » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:33 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:For some reason that NAM Loop never loads for me.


Or me. The screen just stays grey.


Try this link:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... area=wnatl
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#60 Postby lester » Tue Aug 13, 2013 10:47 pm

the NAM's a horrible model period, why are we even talking about it?
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