ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[southerngale]

thx. I was more pointing out that "hoping" of any kind in a storm discussion thread is pretty bush league. Maybe I'm too harsh but these storms will do what they do regardless of any hoping, wishing, rooting, etc. This kind of banter ruins and clogs threads IMO. Maybe this forum is not for me. I will stay quiet until I figure it out.

That may be a good idea. While everyone knows that they will do what they do regardless of anyone's input, on this forum, people like to speculate, make forecasts, and simply discuss the various possibilities.

[ninel conde]

this one is likely to be the opposite of dorian in that it will be very slow to move.

[Gustywind]

2 AM discussion. 93L has been mentionning as a special feature...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N18W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N18W TO 10N17W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF W AFRICA AND 25W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME IT
WILL BE MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR WHICH COULD
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[RL3AO]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

Unhopefully we don't have the direction and the speed of 93L. Maybe the NHC forgot that ...

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Season

Tropical Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Aug 14, 2013 6:27 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

- Strong disturbance moving off Africa could organize this week over the eastern Atlantic

ATLANTIC

Invest 93-L in the far eastern Atlantic near the coast of Africa is showing signs of organization. Development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwestward.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE W AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N20W THROUGH A
1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N21W TO 9N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE COVERS THE AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 18W-
27W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest sat pic of increasing 93L?

[ninel conde]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

Unhopefully we don't have the direction and the speed of 93L. Maybe the NHC forgot that ...

based on the weakness of the high i think its going to crawl along and not get too far west. i cant get the links for the nhc sites to work.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, could we have the latest sat pic of increasing 93L?

Here you go.Saved loop.

[Gustywind]

Thanks .

[tolakram]

Here's the hires view from meteosat: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

You can zoom into an area using the always awkward shift + dragging the mouse.

[Gustywind]

Curiously, the SSD positions do not mention 92L and 93L... matter of time?!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.


AL, 93, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 129N, 208W, 25, 1010, LO

[Gustywind]

First appearence on SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L

[cycloneye]

Visible saved loop.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:40 GMT le 14 août 2013

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2489

New African Tropical Wave 93L Organizing
A tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa on Tuesday (93L) is showing a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin on satellite loops as it heads west-northwest at 10 mph. The wave is over warm waters of 28°C and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, which should allow continued development today and Thursday. The 00Z SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate for the next five days, which favors development. However, the waters beneath 93L will steadily cool to a marginal 26°C by Friday, and the atmosphere will steadily get drier, as 93L encounters the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), discouraging development. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 60% of developing by Monday, and a 60% chance of developing by Friday. The expected west-northwest track of 93L over the next five days will carry it into a region of ocean where it is uncommon for tropical cyclones located there to eventually impact any land areas except Bermuda.

[jaguarjace]

Off topic but GOES-12 is scheduled to be decommissioned on August 16th if anyone wants to know:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/MESS/MSG2251608.01.txt

GOES-13 (Goes East) will be put in rapid scan after the decomission.

[CrazyC83]

Has a TCFA been issued on this one yet?

[cycloneye]

Has a TCFA been issued on this one yet?

Not yet. I assume one will be issued later today if it continues the organization process is going thru.