CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Building an eyewall.

http://oi42.tinypic.com/15e9qpe.jpg

45 knts at 3z then maybe?

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 310251
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL STORM GIL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 117.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. GIL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND GIL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[galaxy401]

40 knots seems too low. Seems more like 50 knots honestly.

[supercane4867]

40 knots seems too low. Seems more like 50 knots honestly.

It has better structure than Dorian and Chantal ever did

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF BOTH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS AT
30/2227 UTC INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
MORE THAN 70 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND ADT...AND A 2124 UTC AMSU
ESTIMATE OF 48 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAL AND
EXPANDING...WITH A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAVING BECOME
BECOME ESTABLISHED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REAMINS 285/13 BASED ON VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX DATA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE NORTH OF GIL. THIS VERY STABLE STEERING FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST THEREAFTER. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS GIL APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

BASED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A CDO-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING...PLUS THE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURE NOTED IN
THE LATEST AMSU MICROWAVE DATA...GIL APPEARS POISED TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTFLOW
PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND EXPAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE TOO LOW.
REGARDLESS...OF THE DEVELOPMENT RATE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. AFTER A
SHORT LEVELING OFF PERIOD...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND BY 96 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.1N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.6N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.9N 128.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.4N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 16.5N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

I sense a Special Advisory as soon as the NHC sees that eye picture...I'd say at least 55 kt.

[Ntxw]

Gil certainly looks very good. Could get it's act together very quickly.



Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

[Kingarabian]

Stewart acknowledged that the intensity may be too low, so I agree with you, CrazyC83. Man I wish we had people like Stewart working at the CPHC. Look at how detailed that discussion is.

[Kingarabian]

Looks really good...

[Yellow Evan]

Stewart acknowledged that the intensity may be too low, so I agree with you, CrazyC83. Man I wish we had people like Stewart working at the CPHC. Look at how detailed that discussion is.

Or the CPHC should be merged with the NHC. As a whole yea, the CPHC disco's are longer than the NHC one. Interesting to note that the Stewart who IMO is not very conservative said the intensity was too low.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0
FROM TAFB AND THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT...WARRANTING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NEGLIGIBLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIL COULD BEGIN
TO INGEST A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...SHOWING GIL REACHING HURRICANE
STATUS IN 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13 KT. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE GIL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND GIL
SHOULD RESPOND BY SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE...AND THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH ON THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED
SOUTHWARD...ENDING UP CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.4N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.8N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.2N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.7N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ninel conde]

Gil certainly looks very good. Could get it's act together very quickly.

http://i41.tinypic.com/f1i1z8.gif

Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

that pic would make me think a strong el nino is ongoing.

[mrbagyo]

Gil certainly looks very good. Could get it's act together very quickly.

http://i41.tinypic.com/f1i1z8.gif

Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

that pic would make me think a strong el nino is ongoing.

good looking system, I really like the banding feature of Gil... I think this system has a good chance of "MAJOR-ing" if it doesn't encounter hostile environment.

[WeatherGuesser]

Still showing it curving south though.

[Yellow Evan]

Gil certainly looks very good. Could get it's act together very quickly.

http://i41.tinypic.com/f1i1z8.gif

Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

that pic would make me think a strong el nino is ongoing.

No. This is nothing really above normal here in the EPAC. This July, we've gtten 3 storms and 1 hurricane. On average, we get 4 storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major The EPAC is more active than the ATL on average. Triplets are not that uncommon were last noted in 2009 (Two-C, Jimena, Kevin).

[tolakram]

Still showing it curving south though.

What is showing it curving south?

The GFS shows north then west movement, the euro only shows a small area of vorticity ... really struggling this year with development.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A DISTINCT AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A
FEW HOOKING BANDS. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GIL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN
A DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FORECAST AN
INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN...IN
COMBINATION WITH COOLER WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE BEST
ESTIMATE IS 285/12. GIL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS WOULD OFTEN IMPLY A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED AND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH IS IN FACT
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE WESTWARD MOTION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IMPLIED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 13.6N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.1N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.6N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.3N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 15.8N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 134.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting that the NHC keeps showing a slow intensity rate each package. At its first advisory, winds of 25 knts were given, and within 3 days, a peak of 65 knts was expected and within a day winds of 45 knts were expected. Now, they show a slower rate of intensification, despite it getting somewhat stronger than expected. The only reason I can think of is the the SHIPS RI probability went down, but I have no way of knowing here for sure since the NHC has not mentioned them.

[Ntxw]

Not sure if RI will occur but given the small size it would be as good a candidate as any so far in the EPAC to make a run at a major for a short period of time. These compact systems tends to surprise sometimes.