CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Stays at 30%

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[lester]

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

Nice deep burst of convection right now on AVN loops.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[hawaiigirl]

I'm getting excited! Do you guys think it will be of hurricane strength by the time it reaches Hawaii?

[HURAKAN]

I'm getting excited! Do you guys think it will be of hurricane strength by the time it reaches Hawaii?

Unlikely, look at the sea-surface temperatures ... on a track from the west, the system will have to move over water sub-26C.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm getting excited! Do you guys think it will be of hurricane strength by the time it reaches Hawaii?

No way. Name me one storm that was of hurricane strength when it reached Hawaii coming from the west.

[Yellow Evan]

It's where all of the good EPAC storms form. It has a closed LLC, it's had that all along. It' that as we learned last night with 98L, it has to maintain convection for several hours. I think the convection is south of the center, but it is becoming more concentrated. I do expect that this storm will make it to code red at 18z f not 0z. As for intensity, it has only 2 days to do so, so hurricane intensity may seem a little far fetched. I think a 50-55 knt TS is more likely.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Florida1118]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, I did not think they would go to 80% from 50%. Glad they did though.

[Kingarabian]

If this thing bombs into a nice hurricane, no way it doesn't feel the soon to come weakness and head NW. The only way this can affect Hawaii is if it remains weak...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

12Z Euro running right now.

12Z GFS has a TD bearing down on the Islands.

[CrazyC83]

24/1800 UTC 13.7N 119.6W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific

[galaxy401]

Doesn't look bad at all. If more convection develops, which seems to be, it will probably get upgraded.

[Kingarabian]

Nice outflow. Need to sprout more consistent convection.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND IT
WAS PRODUCING WINDS OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

One (kinda stupid) question I've always wondered but never askes: Does a "well-definded" center mean a closed one?

[Yellow Evan]

Looks marginally open.

[Kingarabian]

I'm assuming they will name it once it gains enough core organization since it already has tropical storm winds.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
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040
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201307250040
NONE
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