ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My development probabilities
48 Hours: 30%
72 Hours: 40%
120 Hours: 50%

[SouthDadeFish]

Sometimes it's nice to look at the big picture to keep things in perspective:

[Hurricane Andrew]

What on EARTH is that just east of the Antilles? Some weird thing...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a very impressive wave. While OSCAT missed the center on its pass last night, it did show winds of TS force on the west side of the circulation:



Currently, the wave is embedded in the ITCZ, which is helping it fight off the SAL by providing a moisture source. If it develops and detaches from the ITCZ, its circulation will probably entrain some of that dry air. I think it's best bet for survival is to either stay really far south, or develop a strong enough circulation quickly, so it can somewhat fight off the shear and dry air in its path. Personally, I would put the odds higher than 20% of this thing becoming a TC in the next 48 hours. More like 50%. The Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on this thing.

Again, this is all just my opinion.

yeah from microwave and oscat it is getting a moisture feed but there appears to be no attachment of the LLC there are plenty of true west winds even at the 15mph its moving. like a round paddle spinning in the water the circ is skimming the top of itcz in a way pulling just enough moisture but far enough to be its own entity..

[CrazyC83]

They are going to be conservative in that region though, since it isn't impacting anyone right now and they don't know what kind of persistence there will be.

Based on the OSCAT pass and likely underestimation, I would say 40 kt is the intensity.

[cycloneye]

What on EARTH is that just east of the Antilles? Some weird thing...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html

That is the sun glare.

[Hurricane Andrew]

No, there is this weird blue area, that shows up differently in the sun glare.

[Aric Dunn]

That and at least in the mid and upper levels its in a nice pocket of moisture. low shear.

[Hurricaneman]

the 12ZGFS rams it into South America, then relocates north offshore of South America but doesn't do much with it

[SFLcane]

Very impressive TW for early july..when that sal clears in a few weeks look out.

[CrazyC83]

Makes me wonder if they will come back to this and call it an unnamed system if it doesn't develop?

[Aric Dunn]

Its extended sector of the NASA Site ... works till a floater gets put up.

However I really really really dont not like the new animator the NASA is using... its choppy and wont loop fast enough

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

[cycloneye]

Folks, look at this loop. Turning is very obvious.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 061145.GIF

[rockyman]

I'm showing that the 12z GFS brings the system into the central Lesser Antilles:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... b&hour=072

Then, passes south of Puerto RIco, heading WNW toward Hispaniola:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... b&hour=087

Clips the south shore of Hispaniola:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... b&hour=096

[Aric Dunn]

Folks, look at this loop. Turning is very obvious.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 061145.GIF

nice where did you find that ?

oh nevermind rammb has it on 1km not on there 4km good

very nice banding beginning to develop. if the convection hangs this next couple hours bet the nhc goes orange.. however its likely very near TD if not there already.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 95L

[ROCK]

man this looks really really good for the 1st week of July...

[Hurricaneman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_38.png

is south of Cuba at 117

[CrazyC83]

That looks pretty convincing to me...

[rockyman]

Yes, according to the 12z GFS, the system will gradually strengthen as moves WNW across the eastern Caribbean, then weaken as it crosses the southern tip of Hispaniola, then die out as it passes south of Cuba. Of course, it dies out because it was already weak to begin with.