WPAC: SOULIK- Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

ragged eye - the northern portion needs more convection

[euro6208]

Rapid intensification going on. Eye is clearly evident.




CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 979.7mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.7 6.0

[dexterlabio]

Lack of deep convection to its north is because of subsidence from the high pressure. But still, one of the best looking tropical storms I've seen. At this rate of organization, we might see a lot stronger system tomorrow.

[euro6208]

Very exciting storm to track. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a category 5 tomorrow morning.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lack of deep convection to its north is because of subsidence from the high pressure. But still, one of the best looking tropical storms I've seen. At this rate of organization, we might see a lot stronger system tomorrow.

The convection is starting to develop in the Northern portion of the storm but it still lacks outflow and organization. If this will be a Category 5, this will be the first super typhoon (for a long time) this year.

IT'S SO EXCITING TO TRACK THIS!!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm

WHAT A FAST UPGRADE!

STS 1307 (SOULIK)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 8 July 2013
<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°10'(19.2°)
E142°40'(142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N440km(240NM)
S390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E140°25'(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL180km(95NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E138°05'(138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E132°55'(132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

AMSU still showing open eyewall to the north... also would be nice if we could get that strong convection wrap into the northern periphery... i think it's just taking its sweet time, a Typhoon by tomorrow is likely given the current favorable conditions..

as for the models, looks like HWRF and GFDN are the most aggressive showing 120 to 130kt range by day 4...

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

JMA has issued a typhoon warning (TW) on Soulik, meaning it will be upgraded to a typhoon within 24 hours.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just made a video update on this, lots of information jam packed in to it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFvMjMbncEk[/youtube]

[Meow]

55kt now per JMA. It seldom changes the strength at 15Z despite rapid intensification or rapid weakening.

[mrbagyo]

the eye disappeared but the convection improved.
I think its trying to build a solid Central Dense Overcast before popping an eye again.. I'm expecting a much smaller eye this time around

[phwxenthusiast]

yeah, just a normal TC evolution i think...

well, the eyewall is starting to close off it seems.. although it still looks too rugged for my liking...

[dexterlabio]

with a little help from diurnal max, this could be done closing off its eyewall by dawn...

[Hurricane_Luis]

Severe Tropical Storm (Future Typhoon) Soulik

[Hurricane_Luis]

Now Typhoon Soulik according to the JMA.

[Typhoon Hunter]

EDIT: My word I just saw ECMWF 12z run, it show Soulik impacting NE Taiwan with 850hPa winds of 67m/s. I don't think I've ever seen that model crank a storm so much, it's absurdly strong!!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Now Typhoon Soulik according to the JMA.

60kts severe tropical storm from JMA at 21z, however JTWC did upgrade this to typhoon at 18z.

Fully expect JMA to follow suit in just over an hour when 00z forecast come out.

[Typhoon Hunter]

And that 67m/s from ECMWF would translate to bottoming out at 924hPa before landfall on Taiwan. Grim 12z run:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[euro6208]

forecast to intensify to near category 4!

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.1N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.1N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.7N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 139.8E.
TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHWARD OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHWARD OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AND A 082231Z TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING A
CLEAR LOW-LEVEL EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER,
AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING STRUCTURE, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, AND A CONTINUATION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER,
DECREASING OUTFLOW SHOULD REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE, WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. BASED ON
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY, AND BOTH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIE NEAR THE CENTERLINE OF AN EVENLY-
DISTRIBUTED FORECAST SET.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE
STEERING RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER LAND LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120.
AFTER TAU 72, UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A BREAK IN
THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A COMMENSURATE SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, LENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. SEVERAL
MODELS, INCLUDING THE UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND ECMWF, CONTINUE TO
SHOW TY 07W TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL
BETWEEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAIWAN. A GROUPING INCLUDING HWRF, THE
JAPANESE TYPHOON ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW THE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF TAIWAN AND MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI. GFS DEPICTS AN EARLIER POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
RAPIDLY-DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF/JAPANESE ENSEMBLE/NCEP ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS/GFDN/ECMWF GROUPINGS GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK OVER THE PAST FOUR RUNS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.//
NNNN

[Meow]

No one cares JMA. It upgraded Soulik to a typhoon at 00Z.