EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS LOW MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WATCHES
OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IF ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

EP, 96, 2013062918, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1032W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

Convection starting to fire at last over the LLC.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTER AT 12N103W 1008 MB HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ILL-
DEFINED AND A CYCLONE TO ITS NW BRINGS STRONG CONVERGING FLOW
ALOFT UNFAVORABLE TO THE OUTFLOW. WHILE CONVECTION HAS NOT
REALLY KICKED IN YET...CURVING BANDS INDICATE SOME TROPICAL
ORGANIZATION IS TAKING PLACE AROUND A ELLIPTICAL CENTER NEAR ITS
POSITION. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 DEG AND WARM MOIST AIR
MASS SURROUNDING LOW PRES. MODEL GUIDANCE FAVOR ITS SLOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH MOST SOLUTIONS POINTING TO A N DRIFT APPROACHING
THE COAST THEN TURNING NW AND EVENTUALLY TURNING W ALONG 20N AWAY
FROM COAST. NHC HAS TAGGED LOW PRES AT 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.

[cycloneye]

Up to near 100%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
INITIATED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IF ADVISORIES
ARE INITIATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Hurricaneman]

this will probably be declared at 11pm, lets wait for the reneumer

[cycloneye]

RENUMBER


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962013_ep042013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306300024
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

EP, 04, 2013063000, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1030W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[Kingarabian]

Appears to be that it will be a compact storm instead of a large one like Cosme. Bad news because these smaller storms can intensify quickly and it has decent time over waters before it reaches the MX coast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Organizing.

[RL3AO]

Another tropical storm would put this year about a week ahead of 1994.

[cycloneye]

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6794/puu2.jpg

Appears to be that it will be a compact storm instead of a large one like Cosme. Bad news because these smaller storms can intensify quickly and it has decent time over waters before it reaches the MX coast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I imagine they will have watches up for portions of the Mexican coast from the first advisory

[Yellow Evan]

Another tropical storm would put this year about a week ahead of 1994.

We are already ahead of 1994. We are 3 storms behind 1992 ATM if that is what you meant.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 103.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA
FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS NOW ACQUIRED
ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FEATURES A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH SOME RAGGED CONVECTIVE
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE
SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/09...GIVEN
THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES. THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION FEATURES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...FOLLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS MODEL TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SEVERAL OF THEM DO NOT
INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING
THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE APPARENTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF
THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72
HOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY DAY
4...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.7N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.9N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.1N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.1N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Any reason why the storm is not expected to RI?

[Extratropical94]

Say hi to Dalila.

TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 103.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS.

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING SMALL SHEAR OVER
DALILA...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE CAUSING SLIGHT SHEAR. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED
WEST OF DALILA WEAKENS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SHIPS MODEL IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH DALILA...AND
ONLY SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. HWRF AND FL STATE SUPERENSEMBLE
MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...DALILA WILL SOON ENCOUNTER A LARGE DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
IN FACT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE
TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS MODEL TREND...BUT
SINCE IT IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.6N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 17.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 19.3N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 19.3N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...DALILA MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 103.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...DALILA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 103.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA...AND
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE.
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB. DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE
ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST
OR NEAR 340/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[sammy126]

Hi, I have a question. why are the storms south of Mexico and not coming off the coast of Africa?
Thanks, Lisa

[Yellow Evan]

Hi, I have a question. why are the storms south of Mexico and not coming off the coast of Africa?
Thanks, Lisa

Slightly off-topic, but because the environment is not favorable for storm formation off the coast of Afrcia yet.