ATL: INVEST 90L

[ROCK]

Looking at the mess in the carib if you look to the west of Jam there seems to be a mid- level twist happening. Though outflow boudaries all over the place so nothing at the surface.

[weatherwindow]

gonna be a couple days till we start seeing the signs. the mid level circ from Barbara has been pushed back to the sw over mx again. the left over vorticity combined with the energy/ wave in the carribean should come together in about 2 to 3 days and thats when it will need to be watched.

Good afternoon, Aric...as usual you are spot on...per the 1405 TWD for the GOM...Surface ridging will dominate for the next 24-48 hours before weak and broad low pressure forms in the Southwest GOM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

[cycloneye]

I know this is not the BOC but interesting things going on in the NW Caribbean with plenty of convection and maybe a weak MLC embedded and this energy may track towards the BOC. As always time will tell.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman in miami say that mess in nw carribbean could be what cause low form in boc or north of Yucatan Peninsula

[Sanibel]

The remnants may be offshore but the bottom line is too weak in May GOM conditions.

[CourierPR]

[quote="cycloneye"]I know this is not the BOC but interesting things going on in the NW Caribbean with plenty of convection and maybe a weak MLC embedded and this energy may track towards the BOC. As always time will tell.

Luis, that area in the NW Caribbean doesn't appear to be tracking toward the BOC.

[OuterBanker]

After attending the Lost Colony opening night I get home and the euro has a right weighted east coast hugger. Looks rather nasty weather from Fl north. Of course it will change. But it is interesting.

[CrazyC83]

Welcome to the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season - officially. This doesn't appear to be a threat for development though IMO.

[AdamFirst]

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TheStormExpert]

Even The Weather Channel is already mentioning the potential for tropical development. Mostly on weather.com. They're also considering this area to be the remnants of Barbara.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Even thou they have not updated the positions nor runned the bams on 90L,it is alive with this first 10% that they gave.

[cycloneye]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[artist]

from our local NWS -

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE YUCATAN
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FALLING IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS COULD START EARLIER. AREA-WIDE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS THIS SITUATION UNFOLDS

.

[Sanibel]

This has the look of slow development if it stays over water. Homebrew is very unlikely in the GOM this early but it had the advantage of a slight head start in the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Finnally,ATCF updated. Here is the 12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2013060112, , BEST, 0, 203N, 956W, 20, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[tropicwatch]

Maybe they will put the floater back up shortly? Of course they will I just removed the image link from my site

[Dean4Storms]

Big burst of deep convection and what appears to be a MLC just SW of the Isle of Pines, Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Do not discount the plausibility of development due to shear. In some cases, depending upon the speed and movement of the storm relative to the shear vectors, the TC may actually strengthen. In this case, I think this is plausible. By day 3, although the 00Z GFS shows strong UL winds of 50 kt in the SE Gulf, the SW-to-NE angle of the vectors is pointing in the same direction as the low-level winds which will carry 90L NE toward FL. On the GFS and the ECMWF, this pattern persists in days 4 and 5. This means that 90L will be in the right-exit region of an UL jet and will be paralleling the shear vectors. This will not mean much intensification, but this set-up is actually favorable for a weak system to organize into a depression and then a weak TS, due to enhanced ascent and divergence providing a poleward outflow channel. I think that this should allow 90L to become a weak TS (35-40 kt / 40-45 mph) before making landfall in SW FL in about five days. The GFS does show a 35-kt/40-mph TS producing TS winds in SW and SE FL in three and a half days.



In fact, based upon the above, the system may have a chance to become even stronger than 45 mph if a weak upper low forms to the west of FL, thereby imparting even more favorable UL support. That could easily make a 20-mph difference in strength (i.e. between 40 kt/45 mph and 55 kt/65 mph). So no one should let his or her guard down as four- or five-day intensity estimates can be off by quite a bit. The GGEM, in fact, hints at an upper low forming NW of 90L and then leading to a deeper, 1001-mb landfall just N of Boca Grande, though the timing, showing LF in four days, seems a bit too rapid.

Forecast winds in S FL show a weak TS heading for landfall near Fort Myers:



And of course this type of set-up would be favorable for tornadoes in S FL. NWS Miami is already concerned about severe weather from the system early next week.

[AnnularCane]

Why is there no floater? And why does it still say "no active storms" up there?

[cycloneye]

Why is there no floater? And why does it still say "no active storms" up there?

That is because they have not made an update to the Tropical Models and when those occur,normally the floater moves from one position to another. And our graphic works with the updates that ATCF provide. I hope that very soon they will begin updating the Bams and that will turn the floater and our graphic active.