ATL: INGRID - Models

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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#381 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:40 pm

"Don't look at NAM" but someone keeps posting the NavGem :wink:
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ROCK
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#382 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:41 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:"Don't look at NAM" but someone keeps posting the NavGem :wink:



:lol: just trying to put a different spin on things.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#383 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:42 pm

Very true sir! Maybe GFS has Sabine Pass on this run! I kid, I kid. Or do I ?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#384 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:43 pm

48hr.....sub 1000.....drifting slightly NW

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_15.png
Last edited by ROCK on Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#385 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:43 pm

Thru 48 hours the 0zGFS is a bit Faster compare to the 18z run with TD10..

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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#386 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:45 pm

51hr look at the 500mb heights...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_18.png


60hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png
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#387 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:50 pm

Definitely a faster movement by the GFS...by Sunday Morning is NE of Tampico, same as the 12zECMWF.

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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#388 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:50 pm

66h

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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#389 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:51 pm

66hr.....looks like 90E wanted to hitch a ride on TD10.... :D ridge building in

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_23.png
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#390 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:53 pm



0z GFS trended toward the 12zEuro timing wise for landfall of TD10 Sunday Evening/late night.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#391 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:54 pm

:uarrow:
Will the faster movement make it more difficult for it to head further north?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#392 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:55 pm

seems a lot faster than last run for sure....inland at 75hr...
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#393 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:57 pm

at 81hr the ridge retreats some from Texas but its already inland...
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#394 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:01 pm

ROCK wrote:at 81hr the ridge retreats some from Texas but its already inland...


Unfortunately, Almost doesn't count. But since you have been watching has the spread between landfall and the Ridge collapsing shrank from previous runs?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#395 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:02 pm

Ridge really builds in after 48 hours on GFS. With the faster speed which matches well with the Euro I think the forecast is pretty clear cut.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#396 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:08 pm

Dang this is all about timing!!! Ridge breaks down quick on tues.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#397 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:08 pm

Think it might be about time to put this one to bed Rock. Just don't see this ridge moving enough by landfall to even let it legitimately threaten deep south Texas. Maybe just maybe the gulf has one or two more weak systems left in it to give us hope. But then by the time that happens the fronts will probably be so strong they will curve everything ne into Florida instead :grr:
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#398 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:10 pm

well hold on the GFS has this making a loop after heading inland and gets back into the GOM?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_42.png
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#399 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:11 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Ridge really builds in after 48 hours on GFS. With the faster speed which matches well with the Euro I think the forecast is pretty clear cut.



Yep PT. After this front makes it down to us with little fanfare the ridge quickly builds in and parks itself right over us. Y'all getting really dry over there as well?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#400 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:19 pm

yeah looks pretty clear cut....it goes inland..just lower pressures in the BOC after it leaves.

but thou shalt not give up hope as the NAVGEM is running..... :lol:
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