ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191725
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20130619
171500 2154N 09207W 3923 07746 0427 -170 -191 109008 008 029 000 00
171530 2152N 09210W 3929 07735 0426 -170 -188 106008 008 028 000 00
171600 2150N 09212W 3926 07741 0426 -170 -190 098008 009 028 000 00
171630 2148N 09214W 3926 07741 0425 -170 -189 099008 009 028 001 00
171700 2147N 09216W 3927 07738 0424 -170 -188 098009 009 028 001 03
171730 2145N 09219W 3926 07740 0426 -167 -194 090009 009 029 000 00
171800 2143N 09221W 4039 07541 0434 -156 -181 096011 012 029 001 03
171830 2141N 09223W 4304 07066 0412 -128 -151 110012 012 /// /// 03
171900 2139N 09225W 4584 06587 0384 -105 -107 114012 013 /// /// 03
171930 2137N 09228W 4865 06123 0340 -080 -085 089017 019 /// /// 05
172000 2135N 09230W 5185 05622 0310 -053 -058 078019 019 /// /// 03
172030 2133N 09232W 5483 05178 0281 -027 //// 090020 021 /// /// 05
172100 2132N 09234W 5758 04772 0120 -006 -013 107018 021 /// /// 05
172130 2130N 09236W 6031 04397 0138 +009 //// 124019 020 /// /// 05
172200 2128N 09238W 6343 03982 0134 +034 +031 124019 020 /// /// 03
172230 2126N 09240W 6583 03676 //// +046 //// 129022 024 029 000 05
172300 2125N 09242W 6770 03443 0142 +059 +054 129025 026 029 000 00
172330 2123N 09244W 6958 03217 //// +070 //// 120027 028 029 001 05
172400 2122N 09246W 7167 02970 //// +080 //// 115029 029 /// /// 05
172430 2120N 09248W 7352 02757 //// +093 //// 111031 031 030 007 05
$$
;

At operational altitude

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 191729
XXAA 69174 99226 70913 08221 99014 28230 10522 00125 27021 10022
92812 22650 11535 85544 18461 12533 70181 08058 14527 50589 05925
12010 40761 15345 11015 88999 77999
31313 09608 81703
61616 AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 04
62626 MBL WND 10024 AEV 07520 DLM WND 12522 014393 WL150 10022 08
4 REL 2256N09131W 170355 SPG 2260N09136W 171411 =
XXBB 69178 99226 70913 08221 00014 28230 11959 23808 22935 23250
33882 20056 44850 18461 55804 17268 66719 09462 77710 08657 88663
04828 99631 03605 11495 06128 22457 10720 33435 11760 44410 /////
55393 17138
21212 00014 10522 11978 10024 22928 11035 33850 12533 44748 13027
55701 14527 66643 14017 77605 16014 88533 12013 99513 13013 11504
11512 22491 13512 33450 13513 44433 11015 55414 14016 66393 10014
31313 09608 81703
61616 AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 04
62626 MBL WND 10024 AEV 07520 DLM WND 12522 014393 WL150 10022 08
4 REL 2256N09131W 170355 SPG 2260N09136W 171411 =
;

[Hammy]

Looks like they're hitting into winds just below storm force, 31kts.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191734
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20130619
172500 2118N 09250W 7503 02587 //// +103 //// 114032 032 031 001 01
172530 2117N 09252W 7672 02399 //// +112 //// 115030 031 030 000 01
172600 2115N 09254W 7846 02216 //// +125 //// 116030 030 031 001 01
172630 2114N 09256W 8021 02029 //// +133 //// 116030 030 030 001 01
172700 2112N 09258W 8220 01819 //// +146 //// 116030 030 030 002 05
172730 2111N 09300W 8440 01590 //// +157 //// 115030 030 032 002 05
172800 2110N 09302W 8658 01374 //// +171 //// 119033 033 030 002 05
172830 2108N 09303W 8920 01126 0140 +187 +183 115033 033 /// /// 03
172900 2107N 09305W 9169 00875 0136 +200 +195 110034 035 030 001 01
172930 2106N 09306W 9369 00681 //// +210 //// 108035 035 030 000 01
173000 2104N 09308W 9475 00581 //// +217 //// 107034 035 030 000 01
173030 2103N 09309W 9583 00482 //// +221 //// 102032 033 030 001 01
173100 2102N 09310W 9625 00435 //// +225 //// 099032 034 032 001 01
173130 2100N 09312W 9631 00428 //// +232 //// 099032 033 031 002 01
173200 2059N 09313W 9634 00424 //// +225 //// 101033 033 031 000 01
173230 2058N 09314W 9630 00426 //// +225 //// 104032 033 031 000 05
173300 2057N 09316W 9631 00427 //// +225 //// 105031 032 031 000 01
173330 2056N 09317W 9632 00424 //// +227 //// 105034 035 032 003 05
173400 2055N 09319W 9649 00411 //// +227 //// 099033 035 033 003 01
173430 2054N 09320W 9666 00391 //// +229 //// 097032 033 033 003 01
$$

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 4

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 19th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 22.6N 91.3W
Location: 156 miles (251 km) to the NW (316°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (29.94 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 105° (from the ESE) 22 knots (25 mph)
1000mb 125m (410 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 100° (from the E) 22 knots (25 mph)
925mb 812m (2,664 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) Approximately 18°C (64°F) 115° (from the ESE) 35 knots (40 mph)
850mb 1,544m (5,066 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F) 125° (from the SE) 33 knots (38 mph)
700mb 3,181m (10,436 ft) 8.0°C (46.4°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F) 145° (from the SE) 27 knots (31 mph)
500mb 5,890m (19,324 ft) -5.9°C (21.4°F) -8.4°C (16.9°F) 120° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
400mb 7,610m (24,967 ft) -15.3°C (4.5°F) -19.8°C (-3.6°F) 110° (from the ESE) 15 knots (17 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:03Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 22.56N 91.31W
Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 17:03:55Z

Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 22.6N 91.36W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 17:14:11Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 24 knots (28 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 393mb to 1014mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)

[NDG]

We will see what the recon finds.

[lester]

33 kts surface winds unflagged found at the last update

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 191736
97779 17340 41209 93308 03900 10033 23//8 /0011
41130
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 05
SWS = 33 KTS
;

[Dave]

Missing obs 15...waiting

[NDG]

I hate when that happens, when we need it the most.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's thoughts on TD#2:

TD#2:

Poorly organized tropical depression # 2 has emerged over the Bay of Campeche. The system is currently undergoing fairly strong SW wind shear with nearly all of the deep convection displaced to the northern side of the circulation. Forecast models show the wind shear greatly lessening in the next 24 hours as the depression slowly moves westward. Given the increasingly favorable conditions in the Bay of Campeche, the depression should intensify into a tropical storm prior to landfall late Thursday on the eastern coast of Mexico. With the system deep in the southern Gulf and its limited time over the open waters to generate swells, do not see much if any impact toward the TX coast from either moisture or wave action. Upper ridging building into TX over the next few days will help shunt all of the moisture west into MX well south of the TX coast.

[Dave]

that was a wait...

000
URNT15 KNHC 191755
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20130619
173500 2053N 09322W 9664 00394 //// +227 //// 103032 034 033 004 01
173530 2052N 09323W 9662 00394 0110 +233 +233 099033 034 039 014 03
173600 2051N 09325W 9663 00396 0112 +230 //// 108032 034 035 009 05
173630 2050N 09326W 9655 00410 0115 +224 //// 119037 040 036 013 01
173700 2048N 09327W 9664 00395 0112 +221 +221 131034 038 038 011 00
173730 2047N 09327W 9661 00401 0118 +216 +216 131032 034 043 018 00
173800 2046N 09328W 9663 00396 0117 +218 +218 128036 036 048 019 00
173830 2044N 09328W 9661 00400 0117 +220 +220 124033 036 041 014 00
173900 2043N 09329W 9666 00395 0117 +220 //// 125033 033 039 012 05
173930 2042N 09330W 9663 00399 0113 +226 +226 124033 035 037 008 00
174000 2040N 09331W 9646 00417 0119 +220 //// 125021 031 035 007 01
174030 2039N 09332W 9676 00383 0115 +220 //// 143026 028 034 007 01
174100 2038N 09332W 9663 00400 0116 +214 +208 156031 034 044 012 03
174130 2037N 09333W 9662 00396 0118 +210 +209 149031 035 047 024 03
174200 2036N 09334W 9668 00391 0120 +196 +196 154030 032 057 034 00
174230 2034N 09335W 9662 00398 0120 +198 +198 146028 031 057 034 00
174300 2033N 09336W 9666 00391 0119 +205 +205 128030 030 054 029 00
174330 2032N 09337W 9665 00395 0116 +214 +214 128031 033 045 019 00
174400 2031N 09338W 9668 00391 0113 +221 +221 132026 028 037 012 00
174430 2029N 09339W 9662 00395 0111 +220 //// 128026 027 035 008 01
$$
;

sfmr 57 kts no flag; flt lv 40 kts

[cycloneye]

Unflagged

174200 2036N 09334W 9668 00391 0120 +196 +196 154030 032 057 034 00
174230 2034N 09335W 9662 00398 0120 +198 +198 146028 031 057 034 00

[NDG]

Unflagged SFMR estimated winds of 57 knots

URNT15 KNHC 191755
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20130619
173500 2053N 09322W 9664 00394 //// +227 //// 103032 034 033 004 01
173530 2052N 09323W 9662 00394 0110 +233 +233 099033 034 039 014 03
173600 2051N 09325W 9663 00396 0112 +230 //// 108032 034 035 009 05
173630 2050N 09326W 9655 00410 0115 +224 //// 119037 040 036 013 01
173700 2048N 09327W 9664 00395 0112 +221 +221 131034 038 038 011 00
173730 2047N 09327W 9661 00401 0118 +216 +216 131032 034 043 018 00
173800 2046N 09328W 9663 00396 0117 +218 +218 128036 036 048 019 00
173830 2044N 09328W 9661 00400 0117 +220 +220 124033 036 041 014 00
173900 2043N 09329W 9666 00395 0117 +220 //// 125033 033 039 012 05
173930 2042N 09330W 9663 00399 0113 +226 +226 124033 035 037 008 00
174000 2040N 09331W 9646 00417 0119 +220 //// 125021 031 035 007 01
174030 2039N 09332W 9676 00383 0115 +220 //// 143026 028 034 007 01
174100 2038N 09332W 9663 00400 0116 +214 +208 156031 034 044 012 03
174130 2037N 09333W 9662 00396 0118 +210 +209 149031 035 047 024 03
174200 2036N 09334W 9668 00391 0120 +196 +196 154030 032 057 034 00
174230 2034N 09335W 9662 00398 0120 +198 +198 146028 031 057 034 00
174300 2033N 09336W 9666 00391 0119 +205 +205 128030 030 054 029 00
174330 2032N 09337W 9665 00395 0116 +214 +214 128031 033 045 019 00
174400 2031N 09338W 9668 00391 0113 +221 +221 132026 028 037 012 00
174430 2029N 09339W 9662 00395 0111 +220 //// 128026 027 035 008 01
$$

[wxman57]

Recon ob #15 in. 28kts FL and 57kts sfc. Doubt the surface winds are twice the flight level winds. Peak FL wind 37 kts in the heaviest squalls NE of the center. Assuming the plane finds a well-organized LLC, it could be a borderline TS.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[NDG]

Recon ob #15 in. 28kts FL and 57kts sfc. Doubt the surface winds are nearly twice the flight level winds. Peak FL wind 37 kts in the heaviest squalls NE of the center.

I do agree that is kind of fishy, especially with the recon flying so low.

Edit: They did find a 40 knot flight level wind.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191757
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20130619
174500 2028N 09339W 9669 00389 0110 +217 +216 127028 029 033 004 01
174530 2027N 09340W 9667 00390 0109 +218 //// 130029 030 034 004 01
174600 2026N 09341W 9664 00391 0107 +219 +218 132028 029 035 004 00
174630 2024N 09342W 9664 00391 //// +216 //// 131029 030 034 002 01
174700 2023N 09343W 9667 00388 //// +216 //// 129030 030 036 003 01
174730 2022N 09344W 9668 00387 //// +220 //// 132028 030 036 002 01
174800 2021N 09345W 9664 00391 0107 +220 //// 129029 030 036 004 01
174830 2019N 09346W 9660 00395 0107 +222 //// 131025 028 035 004 01
174900 2018N 09347W 9667 00389 //// +220 //// 135023 024 031 001 01
174930 2017N 09348W 9664 00391 //// +221 //// 135022 024 029 001 01
175000 2016N 09349W 9662 00393 //// +220 //// 136024 025 029 002 01
175030 2014N 09350W 9667 00388 //// +220 //// 138026 027 029 001 01
175100 2013N 09351W 9663 00393 0106 +220 +219 140027 029 029 000 01
175130 2012N 09352W 9663 00391 //// +219 //// 141027 027 029 000 01
175200 2011N 09353W 9663 00390 //// +220 //// 141026 027 029 000 01
175230 2010N 09354W 9663 00390 //// +220 //// 137026 027 030 001 05
175300 2009N 09355W 9663 00390 //// +219 //// 137024 026 029 001 01
175330 2008N 09357W 9663 00390 //// +217 //// 137023 024 029 000 01
175400 2007N 09358W 9663 00390 //// +219 //// 137022 023 029 000 01
175430 2006N 09359W 9666 00387 //// +218 //// 137021 023 027 000 01
$$
;