ATL: INGRID - Models

[HouTXmetro]

Is there anything we need to watch for after this? If the ridge is going to be gone 5 days or so, is there a chance something could be coming from the Caribbean that we have to worry about?

Iv'e seen this scenario too many times. This part of the Gulf is wide open for Tropical Systems but nothing tropical develops. That's usually a good thing sans a drought.

[Rgv20]

18zGFS Ensemble Means are right on top of the Operational Run of the GFS thru 108hrs Late Night Monday.



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[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM just south of Brownsville....probably best case scenario...ridge buckles pretty good..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

[ROCK]

18Z GFDL and HWRF are jacked up...they want to have 90E eat 93L...pretty messed up...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't see any reason not to believe the more reliable models for where they show this going into mexico. Track looks pretty cut and dry within a couple hundred mile area. Ridge across the north central gulf looks to hold strong through at least tuesday. Storm will be well inland by then. No rain for us for another week.

[gatorcane]

Don't see any reason not to believe the more reliable models for where they show this going into mexico. Track looks pretty cut and dry within a couple hundred mile area. Ridge across the north central gulf looks to hold strong through at least tuesday. Storm will be well inland by then. No rain for us for another week.

Yeah it looks pretty cut and dry to me also this goes into Mexico. Latest guidance:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormlover2013]

All about timing!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not unless this stays drifting down in the boc for six more days. Which will not happen.

[jeff]

18Z GFDL and HWRF are jacked up...they want to have 90E eat 93L...pretty messed up...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18Z HWRF buries a small circulation in the deep southern Gulf...I do not see that happening given the broad circulation in place. It then sends another weak broad low NW into the TX coast. Looks like two different systems on this run.

[jeff]

Don't see any reason not to believe the more reliable models for where they show this going into mexico. Track looks pretty cut and dry within a couple hundred mile area. Ridge across the north central gulf looks to hold strong through at least tuesday. Storm will be well inland by then. No rain for us for another week.

Yeah it looks pretty cut and dry to me also this goes into Mexico. Latest guidance:



It is always about timing...or intensity.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

if its not on the move like currently forecasted and does drift....it wont have to drift long since the ridge buckles on tues and Wed. All 12Z guidance says this will be inland by that time though....

[ROCK]

18Z GFDL and HWRF are jacked up...they want to have 90E eat 93L...pretty messed up...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18Z HWRF buries a small circulation in the deep southern Gulf...I do not see that happening given the broad circulation in place. It then sends another weak broad low NW into the TX coast. Looks like two different systems on this run.

its an odd ball run for sure....

[jeff]

if its not on the move like currently forecasted and does drift....it wont have to drift long since the ridge buckles on tues and Wed. All 12Z guidance says this will be inland by that time though....

It is going to have to move some by then or upwelling will do it in.

[ravyrn]

Still a bit of uncertainty, as there always is with the models, but it certainly looks areas to the south of Tampico and northward towards Brownsville should all keep an eye on this. If the northern trend continues, perhaps even other areas of South Texas. However, it is often we see models creep north, only to retreat the opposite direction the following day. Tampico certainly is in the crosshairs for this one at the moment.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jeff]

A slight N track shift at 10pm. Error cone now includes all of S TX..looks like Kingsville is the northern edge

[ConvergenceZone]

A slight N track shift at 10pm. Error cone now includes all of S TX..looks like Kingsville is the northern edge

I know Rock has been pretty persistent in his opinion on the storm going more North than what's forecasted. I also noticed this quote from the last discussion

"The tvca multi-model consensus has shifted
northward this cycle in response to the GFS showing a somewhat
weaker ridge and a more northward track at days 3 and 4. The NHC
track has been adjusted in that direction and is close to tvca...
but a little south of the GFS and ECMWF. Given that the cyclone is
still organizing...and the weak steering pattern over the next
couple of days...uncertainty in the track forecast is a little
larger than usual.. "


I've noticed from my past tracking of tropical systems that sometimes when the track shifts a little bit North, the shift continues in further updates. It will be interesting to see if that plays out here or not...

[Kludge]

A slight N track shift at 10pm. Error cone now includes all of S TX..looks like Kingsville is the northern edge

Go, ROCK....Go ROCK...Go...!!! <Hi Fives>

[ROCK]

yes I have for good reason...the EURO showed a weaker ridge....its ensembles showed spread out probabilities last run farther up the coast. Look at the NAM at 84hrs 500mb heights....dont look at where TD10 is because the NAM is crapola with tropical systems......

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[ROCK]

0Z GFS is running...I am so excited...


24hr....high sitting on my house...TD in the BOC....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_8.png

[ROCK]

front coming down to the NGOM....might try to come in the backdoor here in TX...

30hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png