ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[tailgater]

Hmm.

http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/output/nowcoas ... 784310.jpg

what that?

looks like a closed surface low to me.. i.e. LLC

What level is that and when was it taken?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What level is that and when was it taken?

Surface winds as of midnight.

It's a surface wind analysis done by the nowCOAST satellite service. Not sure the reliability of it, but another meteorologist posted it elsewhere.

[tailgater]

Looks like we have multipule circulations. that small one and another just south of the central Cuban coast and the one in the eastern Bahamas, which is likely at the mid levels still and the ULL in the Fla. straits.

[Extratropical94]

Remains at 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recent ASCAT pass. Nothing close to a closed circulation, but you can tell Chantal is trying to get her act together quickly.



Judging by the ASCAT and RAMDIS images this morning, there are two possible locations for an LCC to spin up. First area is SW of Andros Island (and just a bit North of Central Cuba), and the second area is around the Bahamas islands of Exuma and Cat.


Going by the CIMSS Vorticity chart, the rotation close to Andros Island has the better chance of developing:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

Additionally, wind shear has been dropping around the Florida Straits as the ULL weakens. Currently there are only 5-10kts of shear in the area, which isn't that much.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

I think were going to see Chantal make a run at redevelopment today, but there's only a small window of opportunity. If Chantal does redevelop in the FL Straits, SW of Andros Island, I doubt she would make it north of Jacksonville before being forced inland.

[Syx6sic]

When is recon set to take off if it doesn't get canceled?
Not sure on the times of it but it does already say they are to invest chantal and not a wave or invest maybe they already know something lol

[wxman57]

That's an upper-level low in the FL Straits. No evidence of a surface circulation in the observations. No development today. Nothing for recon to fly into.

[Syx6sic]

That's an upper-level low in the FL Straits. No evidence of a surface circulation in the observations. No development today. Nothing for recon to fly into.

So far recon still set to investigate it though

[StormTracker]

notice the initialization of the models are different and where each one causes it to go.

Indicative of the two areas that could possibly develop!

[tolakram]

Live sat loop to watch today: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

10% and recon canceled.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL...IS MOVING
NORTHWARD. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

A suggestion to the rookies is to listen to the pro-mets and not argue with them ... they know what they're talking about.

[RL3AO]

A suggestion to the rookies is to listen to the pro-mets and not argue with them ... they know what they're talking about.

IS THAT AN EYE????

[Decomdoug]

I was just wondering, in light of some of the posting on this tread over the past several days, isn't it time for school to start again??

[lester]

I was just wondering, in light of some of the posting on this tread over the past several days, isn't it time for school to start again??

Not for another month or two i'm afraid Prime hurricane season is going to be "fun" on the boards and chat.

[Stormlover2012]

This isn't going to develop, bad intialization not 2 areas where it could develop.

[northjaxpro]

I wanted to take this time and say thanks to all the wonderful professional mets who come on and share their insights on this board. This is what makes Storm2K a wonderful site to come on in my free time.



As for the remnants of Chantal, after the overnight developments and the mere fact that the ULL is continuing to impart shear over the whole vicinity, I don't know about the rest of you, but I think wxman57 you should once again find Bones and have him come back and finally make his announcment really official!!!!

[Dave]

Recon missions have been cancelled for today.

[Dave]

A suggestion to the rookies is to listen to the pro-mets and not argue with them ... they know what they're talking about.

We need Recon now! Why are they waiting?

[Dave]

Everyone have a safe weekend! Maybe now I'll have time to FIX my signature...it's not winter yet!

It's all of you that make Storm2K the place that it is and for me it's the number one place to be during all types of weather. Take care...I'll see you soon I'm sure!