ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[tailgater]

For entertainment purposes only( not a reliable model for tropics)

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=

[Aric Dunn]

ssd working again

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Annie Oakley]

Levi Cowan made a video about the Remnants of Chantal. Most of it relates to Chantal but the last part is about another ULL in Western Atlantic and the waves emerging Africa.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... e-bahamas/

Brilliant. (video and post)....still watching..... Thanks C.

[TheStormExpert]

Other than the change from "Western Caribbean Sea" to "Northwestern Caribbean Sea", that TWO is a word-for-word copy/paste from the 2pm TWO.

Most likely because conditions have not become more favorable just yet like they are expecting. I expect the percentages will gradually go up over the next 24hrs.

[fci]

I don't see South Florida having a direct effect from 95L/Chantal/96L/Dorian/The Artist Formerly Known as Chantal.
If she/he becomes a TS again, South Florida is on the weaker side and it should stay offshore. It will though fight upper winds from the West which will enhance afternoon thunderstorms on the East Coast of Florida.
Personally, I'm more concerned about what's brewing way back behind it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

For entertainment purposes only( not a reliable model for tropics)

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=

I don't know much about the RAP model. Can someone fill me in on it's basics?

[ouragans]

cycloneye, one "technical" question:

Let's say 96L survives and is classificated as a TS, will it Chantal or Dorian? This system has already shown it could go against all odds... why not this time also?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, one "technical" question:

Let's say 96L survives and is classificated as a TS, will it Chantal or Dorian? This system has already shown it could go against all odds... why not this time also?

It would be Chantal. There was a little confusion when ATCF renumbered as 96L but NHC clarified at NRL and in the TWO.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2013071200, , BEST, 0, 233N, 790W, 25, 1014, WV

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC FRI JUL 12 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE CHANTAL (AL962013) 20130712 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130712 0000 130712 1200 130713 0000 130713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 79.0W 25.0N 80.2W 27.0N 80.5W 29.0N 80.9W
BAMD 23.3N 79.0W 24.4N 79.6W 25.7N 79.7W 27.4N 79.9W
BAMM 23.3N 79.0W 24.7N 79.9W 26.3N 80.0W 28.2N 80.3W
LBAR 23.3N 79.0W 25.0N 80.2W 26.7N 80.8W 28.4N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130714 0000 130715 0000 130716 0000 130717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 82.0W 33.7N 86.2W 36.3N 90.7W 39.9N 93.5W
BAMD 29.2N 81.1W 32.5N 86.2W 36.4N 92.4W 42.1N 96.4W
BAMM 30.1N 81.4W 33.3N 86.3W 37.0N 92.0W 42.3N 95.2W
LBAR 30.2N 81.5W 34.6N 84.7W 39.8N 91.6W 44.3N 93.6W
SHIP 47KTS 51KTS 49KTS 47KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 21.4N LONM12 = 76.6W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 18.4N LONM24 = 73.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[jlauderdal]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC FRI JUL 12 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE CHANTAL (AL962013) 20130712 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130712 0000 130712 1200 130713 0000 130713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 79.0W 25.0N 80.2W 27.0N 80.5W 29.0N 80.9W
BAMD 23.3N 79.0W 24.4N 79.6W 25.7N 79.7W 27.4N 79.9W
BAMM 23.3N 79.0W 24.7N 79.9W 26.3N 80.0W 28.2N 80.3W
LBAR 23.3N 79.0W 25.0N 80.2W 26.7N 80.8W 28.4N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130714 0000 130715 0000 130716 0000 130717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 82.0W 33.7N 86.2W 36.3N 90.7W 39.9N 93.5W
BAMD 29.2N 81.1W 32.5N 86.2W 36.4N 92.4W 42.1N 96.4W
BAMM 30.1N 81.4W 33.3N 86.3W 37.0N 92.0W 42.3N 95.2W
LBAR 30.2N 81.5W 34.6N 84.7W 39.8N 91.6W 44.3N 93.6W
SHIP 47KTS 51KTS 49KTS 47KTS
DSHP 39KTS 28KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 21.4N LONM12 = 76.6W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 18.4N LONM24 = 73.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

i would discount everyone of those models in this particular setup

[jlauderdal]

I don't see South Florida having a direct effect from 95L/Chantal/96L/Dorian/The Artist Formerly Known as Chantal.
If she/he becomes a TS again, South Florida is on the weaker side and it should stay offshore. It will though fight upper winds from the West which will enhance afternoon thunderstorms on the East Coast of Florida.
Personally, I'm more concerned about what's brewing way back behind it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Interesting best track is at 79w and we are at 80 but no global model support for it to do much here...sw flow should keep it real stormy anyway in se fla next few afternoons

[cycloneye]

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep an eye on that area SSE of Miami, which long range radar has it.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[floridasun78]

Need to keep an eye on that area SSE of Miami, which long range radar has it.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

that look like want move to fl

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep an eye on that area SSE of Miami, which long range radar has it.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

that look like want move to fl

Looks like the break in the ridge is actually a little further west right over the peninsula too me and with the wave axis this far west already a ride right up the spine of the peninsula or even right up along the west Coast wouldn't even surprise me at this point.

[floridasun78]

you think their move plane to homestead that close to area?

[Annie Oakley]

you think their move plane to homestead that close to area?

hmmm. Good observation. (OBS)

[artist]

notice the initialization of the models are different and where each one causes it to go.

[floridasun78]

you think their move plane to homestead that close to area?

hmmm. Good observation. (OBS)

their done it before when area off south fl i heard their come from tampa too