ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

circ definately east of st lucie or pierce pretty much staiinary atm. radar beginning to fill in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/m ... h-rgb.html

[artist]

off topic, but hopefully pertinent - if s2k does goes down again here is the facebook page where you can get updates -

https://www.facebook.com/groups/165085193521199/#!/

[tolakram]

saved 40 frame radar loop

[wxman57]

Lots of obs around the weak low. Each one indicating rising pressure. Typical pressures near the low 1017.5mb.

[StormTracker]

Aric, could that be a result of the ridge building back west and/or the trough weakening?

[Aric Dunn]

Lots of obs around the weak low. Each one indicating rising pressure. Typical pressures near the low 1017.5mb.

yeah , that typically happens with developing pressure systems they can send out a pressure wave that initially may cause a rise in pressure then falls as the pressure gradient from the center expands out.


also not surprised the presurrs at stations are high the backroung pressure from that massive ridge are extensive

[NDG]

The disturbance appears to not be stacked, the mid level circulation is a good 30-50 south of the weak LLC.

[artist]

I can feel the battle of the systems in my bones today.

[jlauderdal]

eveeyone else having problems loading?

besides that. sprial bands developing on radar a sat ... convrction is limited but i think with any increase in convection the nhc may bring him back to life tonight.

Yep. Host appears to be having issues, up and down all morning. Let's hope it's ended.

hostgator is having a major data center issue today

[northjaxpro]

Weatherboy1 makes a very good observation. 91L is supposed to get picked up by the trough, but I hope that it doesn't miss the connection. I don't want another Elena type situation with it meandering around in a COL waiting for something to come along (i.e. building ridge or another trough as a kicker) occuring off the east coast of Florida.

[hurricanekid416]

It looks to have a closed llc but exposed

[NDG]

You can see the low level circulation to the east of Vero Beach but the mid level circulation is off the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/MLB.N0Z ... .35_an.gif

[AdamFirst]

It's been quite a wet morning here. Sprinkles now but heavy dousing rains rolled through an hour ago.

Nice to see Dorian is at my doorstep more or less

[northjaxpro]

91L is trying desperately to align itself, but shear and dry air are just about to put the whammy on it within the next 6-12 hours. This is this system's last gasp, but then again I have thought that 2 or 3 other times thses past several days, so who knows.. LOL...

[Weatherboy1]

Yes it appears maybe Dorian's old remnants are trying to "restack" down by grand Bahama, at least in my best estimation. We shall see! There have been lots of these "semi-naked swirl" low end TS and TD type systems that have formed in this general area off the FL coast over the years and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see this one reach that level in the next 12-24 hours

[tolakram]

It appears to my amateur eyes that the low level flow off Florida is now moving West into the lower blob near the Bahamas.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7



However I would expect to see falling pressure at this buoy, and it's rising.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[tolakram]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IS MAINLY
LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER THAT...DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[fci]

It's funny, Dorian and/or remnants have looked SO GOOD on the satellite so many times during its ill-fated lifetime. One look at the satellite pictures in this thread, especially the one above on this page with the comma and outflow and one would think a TS or even Hurricane was just off the coast. But....alas; nothing much at all.
Pretty unique system we have watched for the last almost 2 weeks.

[Weatherboy1]

Well settlement point station at the west end of grand Bahamas island is now reporting 24 knot winds steady with gusts to 27 out of the south. That's been rising steadily all day. Could indicate this thing is tightening up a bit more

[robbielyn]

oh wow its spinning up nicely that's for sure.