ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

Originally this morning I was basically ready to write this off and move on, but as of this afternoon and evening I think it still has a somewhat good chance of reforming even if it is a whole new storm. I give the chances of reformation 30-50% overall.

[cycloneye]

If the 8 PM TWO says remnants of Chantal,then the title will change as Invest 96L - Remnants of Chantal.

What if they say "Associated with the remnants of Chantal"? Same thing?

Yes.

[Evil Jeremy]

Originally this morning I was basically ready to write this off and move on, but as of this afternoon and evening I think it still has a somewhat good chance of reforming even if it is a whole new storm. I give the chances of reformation 30-50% overall.

I had it at 30% this morning, but now I think it's a good 50/50 chance. Chantal/Dorian/Drencho/Whatever has been resilient it's entire life. This is a system that developed and strengthened while moving at around 25mph. This system still has a good 24 hours for development until it gets shunted west into Florida or whisked away north. If anything does form though, shouldn't be more than a minimal TS, 45mph tops IMO.


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[blp]

The ULL over central Cuba is inhibiting any possible development right now. The ULL is moving west and once the area of interest lifts out into the central Bahamas is when I think it will be in a favorable position to regenerate with ULL to its southwest.

[Fego]

From the NRL Tropical Cyclone Page:

NOTE: this page is short lived (10 m). Please DO NOT bookmark it or save it to Favorites; instead, bookmark http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html thank you.
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.

[cycloneye]

From the NRL Tropical Cyclone Page:

NOTE: this page is short lived (10 m). Please DO NOT bookmark it or save it to Favorites; instead, bookmark http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html thank you.
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.

I will wait for the 8 PM TWO to look for a more clear guidance about this and change the title accordinly.

[HurricaneBelle]

If the 8 PM TWO says remnants of Chantal,then the title will change as Invest 96L - Remnants of Chantal.

I vote for designating this system with a unpronounceable symbol or glyph and referring it to as The Artist Formerly Known as Chantal.

[blp]

Take a look at Holguin, Cuba (MUHG) it has West winds now but look at the wind history.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHG.html

I don't know if it is local effect winds but it is showing a rotation.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30% and are the remnants of Chantal so title of thread is modified.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[BrandonFSC]

I would put the chances of regeneration of Invest 96L/ Remnants of Chantal into a TC at 40%. I think a minimal tropical storm impact (45-50 mph) is possible as it drifts N/NW towards the Carolina coast and a decreased speed should help it maintain itself if it gets organized into a tropical cyclone.

[Evil Jeremy]

Other than the change from "Western Caribbean Sea" to "Northwestern Caribbean Sea", that TWO is a word-for-word copy/paste from the 2pm TWO.

[TexasF6]

If the 8 PM TWO says remnants of Chantal,then the title will change as Invest 96L - Remnants of Chantal.

I vote for designating this system with a unpronounceable symbol or glyph and referring it to as The Artist Formerly Known as Chantal.

LIKE

[Evil Jeremy]

For what it's worth, the 18z GFDL briefly forms a weak closed low (TD strength really) for one frame, in 36 hours off of the SE FL coast. It then opens the system back up again and brings the wave energy to the Carolinas.

Meanwhile, the 18z HWRF also forms a closed low in 36 hours (very broad, from Miami to Cuba) also around TD strength. It tightens the circulation off of the SE FL coast before heading north to the South Carolina/Georgia border as a TD.

[Annie Oakley]

Remains at 30% and are the remnants of Chantal so title of thread is modified.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

lol......you go Cycloneye.......

Chantal-will she or won't she? They need to name a perfume after her.

[capepoint]

All it will take is a TD to cause trouble in the coastal carolinas. ground is saturated and rivers already at flood stage.

[capepoint]

If the 8 PM TWO says remnants of Chantal,then the title will change as Invest 96L - Remnants of Chantal.

I vote for designating this system with a unpronounceable symbol or glyph and referring it to as The Artist Formerly Known as Chantal.

I'll second that motion. lol

[Alyono]

it will be Chantal... not sure why the name change

[capepoint]

It wont take much more than a TD to cause problems in the coastal carolinas. Ground is saturated and rivers already at flood stage.

[ozonepete]

This is still very disorganized, and an area that large takes a long time to consolidate. I wouldn't expect a clear, dominant MLC to get organized before tomorrow midday at the earliest. But its got pretty good odds given the dropping shear, moist air, warm water and persistent convection.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan made a video about the Remnants of Chantal. Most of it relates to Chantal but the last part is about another ULL in Western Atlantic and the waves emerging Africa.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... e-bahamas/