ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ronjon
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Re: Re:

#3361 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:53 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:
fci wrote:Looks like Miami NWS is buying the stays offshore of the east coast solution.


The GFS has performed better then the Euro this year and it has it going inland in 18 hours. I don't know what's their reasoning for that, even the CMC has it just offshore in 18 hours.


Yeah looks like Miami Nws is euro hugging, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3362 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 30%

DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Ah, I was wrong. Back to my corner. :cry:
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#3363 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:57 pm

This evenings sat loops and some surface obs along with a radar.. are showing what appears to a weak rotation trying to take shape right under that persistent convection just west on andros island. can see some weak low level sw inflow in that area... needs to be watched much more closely now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3364 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:59 pm

Too funny.I have tremendous respect for your opinion Wxman57 but just as you said they'd drop it to near zero they up it to 30%. I think even you got a chuckle out of that one! Just goes to show you, no two scientists think alike sometimes.
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Re:

#3365 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This evenings sat loops and some surface obs along with a radar.. are showing what appears to a weak rotation trying to take shape right under that persistent convection just west on andros island. can see some weak low level sw inflow in that area... needs to be watched much more closely now

Agreed. Aric, do you see this as a GOM storm?
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Re: Re:

#3366 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:03 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:This evenings sat loops and some surface obs along with a radar.. are showing what appears to a weak rotation trying to take shape right under that persistent convection just west on andros island. can see some weak low level sw inflow in that area... needs to be watched much more closely now

Agreed. Aric, do you see this as a GOM storm?


not likely. steering is pretty straight forward atm. its in a bit of col atm if the trough lifts out and some ridging builds westward than maybe over FL .. but gulf not likely
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Re:

#3367 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:03 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Any guesses for the 8pm TWO, anyone? I'm guessing 30%

I dont want to be self absorbed but right on the nose...just a lucky guess :D
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#3368 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:07 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_91.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion:Up to 30%

#3369 Postby hurrtracker79 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:08 pm

Can someone please post this link on where to find ASCAT passes? Thanks!!
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#3370 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:14 pm

close up view with radar over lay...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/e ... h-rgb.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion:Up to 30%

#3371 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:23 pm

Image
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#3372 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:29 pm

anyone have the gfs ensemble members?
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Re:

#3373 Postby hurrtracker79 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:30 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

That is the BAMM models showing a GOM track. Not an accurate model.
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Re:

#3374 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:36 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have the gfs ensemble members?


Aric here are the 12z plots..

Image
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Re: Re:

#3375 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:37 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:anyone have the gfs ensemble members?


Aric here are the 12z plots..

[img]http://i40.tinypic.com/14o1u9w.png[/ig]


yeah thats way to far east not even useable.. thanks though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3376 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:40 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013080200, , BEST, 0, 249N, 791W, 25, 1013, WV
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion:Up to 30%

#3377 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:47 pm

hurrtracker79 wrote:Can someone please post this link on where to find ASCAT passes? Thanks!!


http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php
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#3378 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:49 pm

radar showing clear rotation.. not quite to the surface completely yet but with the convection its quite possible over night it will
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#3379 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:53 pm

also convection on the increase from the miami radar..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3380 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:55 pm

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

latest
Image
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