ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

The lastest Blob is on the eastern edge of wave axis and expanding westward if that continues the pressure could drop and mid level circ. won't be working against wave axis. a long ways to go before a llc forms but it wouldn't be soo decoupled this time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[stormhunter7]

Pretty sure that blob is from where the low surface coc would be... its doesn't appear to be closed, but i would think it wouldn't take long for that to happen at surface.. i know the convection is on the leading edge of the wave, but its where the the low should be and its firing on cue... i think the convection will continue for a few more hours (2-4hrs min), and the ULL to the west will continue to weaken and help the outflow improve. i would think the actually movement of the surface feature would begin to slow down some, not the quick 20mph movement we have seen to wnw.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

*these are just my opinions and nothing official*

[tailgater]

We'll get to watch it on long range radar for a little while
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[stormhunter7]

watching the convection over Haiti and Dominican Rep. the upper level winds are not that bad and actually think are going to help the 91L to the NE of Island. The outflow on 91L will be able to expand out to the SW and S and SE easy?

[fci]

Given the lack of other Atlantic systems at this time; it will be amusing to read the posts of people who are imagining that Dorian will resurrect.

[tailgater]

Almost as amusing as people that come back to a thread they are so sure has no chance of development.

[funster]

Given the lack of other Atlantic systems at this time; it will be amusing to read the posts of people who are imagining that Dorian will resurrect.

You must also be amused by the NHC which gives it a "MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD."

Dorian is blobbing out again right now. Anything could happen. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[fci]

Almost as amusing as people that come back to a thread they are so sure has no chance of development.

It's Hurricane Season; this board is a must see whenever there are Invests that are relevant to me. And I am very sure (not necessarily "so sure") that Dorian is history.

Of course,

"anything can happen"

as Funster notes......

[tailgater]

Almost as amusing as people that come back to a thread they are so sure has no chance of development.

It's Hurricane Season; this board is a must see whenever there are Invests that are relevant to me. And I am very sure (not necessarily "so sure") that Dorian is history.

Of course,

"anything can happen"

as Funster notes......

Very sure so sure whatever, you just insulted me and others on here

[ROCK]

0Z GFS and CMC show just a wave...go figure


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Ivanhater]

If people want to discuss the possibility of regeneration, that is the whole purpose of this thread. If you don't think it will regenerate, feel free to post that as well but don't knock the people for having another opinion. Get back to 91L

[Hurricane Alexis]

It's been doing the same thing it's been doing the last 3 nights. What's interesting is how the statistical models still strengthen 91L to a TS and the globals show nothing at all.

[Hurricane Alexis]

2 am TWO.

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING A
SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 150
MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...BUT COULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[ROCK]

It's been doing the same thing it's been doing the last 3 nights. What's interesting is how the statistical models still strengthen 91L to a TS and the globals show nothing at all.

Have to go with the globals for now..however wind shear is starting to fall. Old map from earlier...before Mr Blob came to life....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Hurricane Alexis]

It's been doing the same thing it's been doing the last 3 nights. What's interesting is how the statistical models still strengthen 91L to a TS and the globals show nothing at all.

Have to go with the globals for now..however wind shear is starting to fall. Old map from earlier...before Mr Blob came to life....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Yea, the trend is for the shear continuing to drop. I wonder if it will affect Dorian's chances of redevelopment.

[Hurricaneman]

The SHIP and LGEM models should be discounted due to there not being a closed low as those models assume theres a LLCC

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RandumbReasons]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqyy1BcSA5Y[/youtube]

[fci]

Almost as amusing as people that come back to a thread they are so sure has no chance of development.

It's Hurricane Season; this board is a must see whenever there are Invests that are relevant to me. And I am very sure (not necessarily "so sure") that Dorian is history.

Of course,

"anything can happen"

as Funster notes......

Very sure so sure whatever, you just insulted me and others on here

Not at all an insult.
I think you took a shot at me for continuing to follow the thread and I explained why.
Plus, I acknowledge what Funster said; "that anything can happen". I've seen strange things happen before that were unexpected.
I might have an opinion that the system is not going to regenerate due to the conditions and lack of model support; but I respect that "anything can happen" and others' opinions.
Absolutely!!!
Sorry Ivan if I beleaguered the discussion but I don't want miss-conceptions of my intentions. If I choose to insult someone; I will not post it as in the past it has resulted in penalties and wrist-slapping from Mods which I DO NOT enjoy!

[GCANE]

Nice looking flare up over the LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 300402.jpg


Firing moderate rain rate

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg


Cloud tops about the coldest I have seen so far with this system

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[george_r_1961]

Dry air is no longer an issue and shear is in the range of 10-20 knots. Not super conducive but unless my eyes are deceiving me it looks like shear will be dropping. My rule of thumb is to never ever write anything off down there that is still popping convection. Especially since its closer to land now. I do not like surprises.

I am still not 100 percent sure that this flare up is not nocturnally driven and I wont be sure until we have several hours of daylight down there. If it is still flaring up this afternoon then chances of redevelopment will go up a notch,