ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[funster]

It will probably still be here tomorrow, sitting in its favorite spot north of Puerto Rico.

[ROCK]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png


http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png


man, these intensity models are really tripping out...IMO...

[TheStormExpert]

Already over 100 pages for 60mph storm that struggled most of it's life! Just imagine how many pages there would be if it was a major hurricane threatening the U.S.

[jlauderdal]

Is it finally done

it will be dead when wxman57 posts a bones picture...twice in a week and its not even aug 1..things look quiet for the next 10 days in the basin then we should see some improvement in the overall mood on this forum as things finally get real

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[SapphireSea]

It's done. The TUTT has mauled any LLC that may have been generating instability to the west of it. The MLC is indeed waning in vorticity. It could not and most likely will not make it to DMAX to keep it up. Bones can soon redeclare him dead.

[ronjon]

If this thing ever gets going, the track guidance has been really consistent on taking this through the straits and into the eastern GOM.

[beoumont]

An appropriate theme song for Dorian (FYI lyrics start at 30 second mark)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrIE266rqnw

The title of the song is certainly appropriate for the current situation. BUT, I thought you were displaying the "original" Is That All There IS, by Peggy Lee, 1969: where the words of that one are also appropriate to Dorian's life story. Check it out:

http://www.last.fm/music/Peggy+Lee/_/Is+That+All+There+Is%3F

Here is the lyrics to one chapter of the song:

And when I was 12 years old, my father took me to a circus, the greatest show on earth.
There were clowns and elephants and dancing bears.
And a beautiful lady in pink tights flew high above our heads.
And so I sat there watching the marvelous spectacle.
I had the feeling that something was missing.
I don't know what, but when it was over,
I said to myself, "is that all there is to a circus?

[SapphireSea]

Is it finally done

it will be dead when wxman57 posts a bones picture...twice in a week and its not even aug 1..things look quiet for the next 10 days in the basin then we should see some improvement in the overall mood on this forum as things finally get real

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wxman57 has posted bones when it looked healthier than this. I am sure it warrants double bones from his next post, lol. I say that August 15+ is when things will get real. We all see the new pattern in choice threads on talking tropics. Like I have said, huge ridges are normal and kill storms. New pattern with persistent E coast troughing is being predicted, once the ridge is eroded and displaced north we will see more storms.

[CaneCurious]

Wxman57 is the negative nelly of this forum.

[bahamaswx]

The circulation actually looks like it's starting to elongate.

[beoumont]

Looking at the latest satellite, the naked mid-level swirl is still N. of PR, but the actual wave axis looks like it might have already reached Oklahoma:

[bahamaswx]

Quite a big flareup in the last hour... but I'd be more impressed if it was over the MLC.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Quite a big flareup in the last hour... but I'd be more impressed if it was over the MLC.

Mid level vorticity seems to be in that area of the flare up.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Its still an active tropical wave

[Blown Away]

BLOB ALERT!!
One last gasp for Dorian?? It's in the area of where a circulation could be??

[fci]

Already over 100 pages for 60mph storm that struggled most of it's life! Just imagine how many pages there would be if it was a major hurricane threatening the U.S.

Very normal page flow for a system that has been around for a week, started as an Invest last Monday at 10:43 AM and became a Tropical Storm 5 days ago; with models showing it as a possible threat for most of its lige.
Certainly there will be many times more pages for a major hurricane as there has been in the past.
All very typical and expected....... :

[boca]

BLOB ALERT!!
One last gasp for Dorian?? It's in the area of where a circulation could be??

Its the mid level vorticity you dont dare say low level vorticity with this system.Its a firecracker thats a dud.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Bonnie from 2010 bit the dust a few times like this one and ended up making it to a 50 mph TS. Also had no model support either.

[bahamaswx]

That blob is expanding QUICKLY.

[SapphireSea]

That blob is expanding QUICKLY.

Looks like shear induced convection. I don't see any signs of upper outflow. I guess give it some time, but I am willing to bet it will be ephemeral.