ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ronjon]

NHC flip flopping on the track - had a BOC solution this morning, now back to Mobile Alabama LF. My only thoughts are maybe they're seeing the LLC forming further north, getting stronger, and pulled more poleward?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

Ah IH you bet me to it!

[StormTracker]

Make sure you pre-prep your peeps in Pensa. You never know...ST

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic= There is a poll at Talking Tropics with the question "92L or 93L develops first" Go here

[StormTracker]

NHC flip flopping on the track - had a BOC solution this morning, now back to Mobile Alabama LF. My only thoughts are maybe they're seeing the LLC forming further north, getting stronger, and pulled more poleward?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

I think climo is starting to kick in! The western solution is gonna get kicked to the curb!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Especially the sooner this develops. But if it stays weak and does manage to cross over the Yucatan can easily see it going more west.

[CaneCurious]

[quote="ronjon"]NHC flip flopping on the track - had a BOC solution this morning, now back to Mobile Alabama LF. My only thoughts are maybe they're seeing the LLC forming further north, getting stronger, and pulled more poleward?

It's also only showing a wave. If it gets pulled north, will it not intensify?

[psyclone]

NHC flip flopping on the track - had a BOC solution this morning, now back to Mobile Alabama LF. My only thoughts are maybe they're seeing the LLC forming further north, getting stronger, and pulled more poleward?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

I think climo is starting to kick in! The western solution is gonna get kicked to the curb!

Mid August is the time of year a western solution would be expected

[ROCK]

easy now to see a developing center.....1KM scan...but its getting close to the Yucatan. Probably knock it down some as it moves across. I put it on the coast about 8pm tonight..

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[StormTracker]

NHC flip flopping on the track - had a BOC solution this morning, now back to Mobile Alabama LF. My only thoughts are maybe they're seeing the LLC forming further north, getting stronger, and pulled more poleward?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

I think climo is starting to kick in! The western solution is gonna get kicked to the curb!

Mid August is the time of year a western solution would be expected

I thought that most "home-grown" systems go more poleward this time of year!

[ronjon]

If I had to place a center I'd put it near 18N-84W.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

[ScottNAtlanta]

Traffic must be increasing here. I've been having a hard time getting pages to load here

[ROCK]

more like 85W....out in front of the heavy convection to the West.....not completely stacked. Better to see it on 1KM scan than 4KM scan...

[Ivanhater]

Have many times have we seen the Yucatan kill any weak low moving onshore and with the main MLC and convection to the NE take over...

[deltadog03]

I honestly think this is destined for the AL/MS coast as a sheared TS (maybe 55-60kt) This has been the year of a NO summer with trof's effecting the East coast with EASE. There is not much doubt in my mind that whatever is out there, is gonna get picked up northward.

[Aric Dunn]

From the looks of it this afternoon there appears to be a developing well defined LLC starting to come together at around 18n very likely we will have a td by morning.

[HouTXmetro]

Have many times have we seen the Yucatan kill any weak low moving onshore and with the main MLC and convection to the NE take over...

DIND DING DING, we have a winner. We have seen that Over and Over and Over again. I almost expect that to be the case at this point again.

[Extratropical94]

Latest best track:

AL, 92, 2013081418, , BEST, 0, 178N, 846W, 30, 1009, DB,

[Steve]

DIND DING DING, we have a winner. We have seen that Over and Over and Over again. I almost expect that to be the case at this point again.

This is true. But just to play devil's advocate, we have equally seen misleading MLC's that looked almost like hurricanes fade off into nothing only for the convection to refire along the "exposed" llc.

I'm still 35% South TX/N Mex, 30% FL Panhandle, 25% Mexico and 10% random loops/stalls/LA hit or whatever. But since Sunday (anyone can look back to my post from Sunday night for reference), both the Panhandle and N Mex/S Tex scenarios have been completely legit and have split the models. Typhoon Utor's track argued strongly against a North Gulf hit unless either 1) the circulation formed much farther north or was fast to form and find its way out with the trough, or 2) the energy split with a piece of it going north and another piece (presumably with the wave axis) continuing across the Yucatan into the BOC or SW Gulf. There is 0 doubt in my mind that some of this energy will be sucked up out front/east of the trough, and almost 0 doubt that we'll still be tracking some energy in the SW Gulf/BOC in 2-3 days.

Steve

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan (via Twitter) thinks this is now likely not to develop before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula due to the wave axis moving west of the convection.

[canetracker]

I honestly think this is destined for the AL/MS coast as a sheared TS (maybe 55-60kt) This has been the year of a NO summer with trof's effecting the East coast with EASE. There is not much doubt in my mind that whatever is out there, is gonna get picked up northward.

Yep shear is something I am not seeing discussed much, but isn't it supposed to be a little hostile in the central to northern GOM?