ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

TexWx · #281 Postby **TexWx** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:51 pm

Bones?

#282 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:56 pm

LOL

...don't even say it

floridasun78 · #283 Postby **floridasun78** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:30 pm

95l look weaker tonight

#284 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:53 pm

floridasun78 wrote:95l look weaker tonight

Well, if one were ignoring all data and strong model consensus, and ONLY comparing tonight's satellite images with last night's images of a large rich moist envelope of deep convection seemingly rotating under a gentle spreading upper level anticyclone...seemingly forming while even over land...

ummm, never mind.

Yeah, your right - does look weaker tonight thus far!

#285 Postby **stormkite** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:21 pm

Still looking ok to me I believe chances are quite high. High enough that I believe the next blow up will allow for this to be numbered.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static/pics/hurr ... ghetti.gif

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#286 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:43 pm

Give it time. DMAX is coming up shortly.

supercane4867 · #287 Postby **supercane4867** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:43 am

No change

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

#288 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:17 am

Falling pressure at the BOC Buoy

#289 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:24 am

LLC at 20N 93.5W according to latest SCAT data

#290 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:29 am

200mb Vorticity is in the clear.

Core at 2C but low.

Just needs at little convection over the LLC and it should all snap in place.

#291 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:39 am

Looks like a good setup on water vapor.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

Convective debris from Manuel feeding into 95L and a strong ULL off the east coast setting up a poleward outflow channel.

#292 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:41 am

Nice convergence on TPW

#293 Postby **stormkite** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:21 am

Definitely looks like its now getting its act together.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#294 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:26 am

8 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED
BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

#295 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:56 am

development may be less likely now. Conditions simply failed to become as favorable as the models were indicating this time. No signs of organization at all with the convection

#296 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:00 am

so would non-development actually result in the trough really stripping all the moistre away and sending it ene along its path?
i'm thinking this will be quite a wet party early next week for west coast Florida and the big bend area.
-maybe our last big rain event before the dry season starts kicking in. October is usually beautiful here.

#297 Postby **stormkite** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:07 am

8am NHC Discussion -
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#298 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:08 am

It certainly doesn't look very impressive this morning. But I still think it has a better than not chance of becoming a weak TS by tomorrow afternoon before conditions aloft deteriorate as the front approaches. Don't see any TS threat to the northern Gulf Coast or to Florida. Will probably merge with the cold front Mon/Tue and its moisture will track northeastward. May have to watch the trailing end of the front next week in the Gulf for possible development.

#299 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:11 am

Doesn't look too good on satellite this morning, time is running out before front comes knocking.

Not to derail this thread but for those having Atlantic cyclone eye candy blues check out Super Typhoon Usagi currently in wpac thread, thing is a monster over there.

alienstorm · #300 Postby **alienstorm** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:22 am

This shouldn't even be an invest ---- the tale of 2013 continues

ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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