WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Kinda disappointed why JMA did not upgrade this to "Violent''. When will JTWC release their Best Track?

[cycloneye]

Up to 140kts.

31W HAIYAN 131106 1200 7.9N 136.2E WPAC 140 918

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Scary. Track hitting Maasin and closer to my City. Shifted far south!

[Meow]

Kinda disappointed why JMA did not upgrade this to "Violent''. When will JTWC release their Best Track?

Commonly in April in next year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

THE FOURTH CAT 5 OF THIS SEASON!

[Meow]

Hanyan becomes a 110kt violent typhoon! JMA expects a 120kt typhoon, the first since Megi in 2010!



TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 6 November 2013

<Analyses at 06/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N7°55'(7.9°)
E136°10'(136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N9°50'(9.8°)
E129°55'(129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°35'(13.6°)
E114°10'(114.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Kinda disappointed why JMA did not upgrade this to "Violent''. When will JTWC release their Best Track?

Commonly in April in next year.

I meant their latest. Too late... It was updated 5 mins ago

STRONGEST STORM IN THE VISAYAS.. EVER!!!!!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Im super scared.. Nothing to do but pray that the effects won't be that bad...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Kinda disappointed why JMA did not upgrade this to "Violent''. When will JTWC release their Best Track?

Quick answer, JMA does not look at JTWC, shoot most of them probably cant read the english from JT or do they truly care what the United States Military is saying. Is it right? No, I think JT is a good resource but ya. Would be like saying why is the NHC not checking Chinas outlook on a Hurricane. (Not that China does do Hurricane Outlooks.. .or do they?)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Kinda disappointed why JMA did not upgrade this to "Violent''. When will JTWC release their Best Track?

Quick answer, JMA does not look at JTWC, shoot most of them probably cant read the english from JT or do they truly care what the United States Military is saying. Is it right? No, I think JT is a good resource but ya. Would be like saying why is the NHC not checking Chinas outlook on a Hurricane. (Not that China does do Hurricane Outlooks.. .or do they?)

Ok it was upgraded.... I have prepared for the worst storm of my life [as of now] and is too far south to hit Bicol.

Anyway I live in Cebu but the weather was pretty fine. I guess it may start raining tomorrow. On Friday, I should watch my doorstep!

[dexterlabio]

^will it directly hit Cebu City???

[RobWESTPACWX]

Despite the above post, JMA now has it as a Typhoon. Winds expected to max at 314kph and a pressure of 900hpa, strongest storm of 2013 just prior to landfall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^will it directly hit Cebu City???

GFS says yes. Actually i agree [but panicked!!!!] because the storm is in a very slight wnw direction (like stairs) and too far south to hit samar directly...




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormkite]

Kinda disappointed why JMA did not upgrade this to "Violent''. When will JTWC release their Best Track?

Commonly in April in next year.

Meow you would fit in well with us Aussie's you have a sense of humour.

[Meow]

Meow you would fit in well with us Aussie's you have a sense of humour.

I am not joking. JTWC does release their best track in April.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... st_tracks/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A track towards Southern Leyte [the southernmost tip], Central Cebu, Negros Island, south of Panay, Central Palawan and near Da Nang is likely due to the strong subtropical ridge.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah that's likely, the area has been in the cone of uncertainty since 2 or 3 days ago...

[cebuboy]

Gosh...I agree with xtyphooncyclonex..Weather is perfectly fine in Cebu..I can even see the stars right now. But there has been an announcement to prepare for this. I'm happy people take it seriously and the government initiative is good so far.

And I'm glad the media here in Cebu City and Philippines provides a broad coverage of this Typhoon. We will do our best to stay safe here. I pray that it will not be as "violent" as its predicted..

[dexterlabio]

^It's best if this one tracks well north of your area and Bohol. It is even unthinkable how the earthquake survivors will cope up with violent typhoon conditions.

[stormkite]

Just looked at loop HAIYAN is bombing out now.