EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
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supercane4867
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
Definitely undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Will it have enough time to clear out a more stable eye that can fend off cold waters and shear as it moves westward?
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
Here's an image of that incipient eyewall replacement cycle.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
...RAYMOND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE....
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 101.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL
DEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY
WEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
...RAYMOND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE....
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 101.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL
DEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY
WEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
It looks like Raymond peaked. 
Still a very pretty hurricane that became our first major of the season! I think Raymond deserves some recognition for this. And the models are apparently showing Raymond reintensifying over open waters. For a struggling season, this is one truly amazing hurricane.
Still a very pretty hurricane that became our first major of the season! I think Raymond deserves some recognition for this. And the models are apparently showing Raymond reintensifying over open waters. For a struggling season, this is one truly amazing hurricane.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Yellow Evan
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- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220233
TCDEP2
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL
DEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY
WEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ42 KNHC 220233
TCDEP2
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL
DEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY
WEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
SHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
Looks like 00Z GFS continue to show Raymond strengthening with a decent anticyclone aloft as it head west
SSTs will not be a problem at all through out forecast period and OHC is actually on the rise, may have some drier air to deal with
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 60 58 55 56 53 52 49 52 56
SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 13 13 14 9 10 10 10 1 7
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4
HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 21 23 22 26 27 17
SSTs will not be a problem at all through out forecast period and OHC is actually on the rise, may have some drier air to deal with
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 60 58 55 56 53 52 49 52 56
SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 10 13 13 14 9 10 10 10 1 7
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4
HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 21 23 22 26 27 17
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Yellow Evan
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supercane4867
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE
OF THE INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND
SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING
THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM MODEL ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.
ASIDE FROM SOME MEANDERING...THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RAYMOND IS LOCATED NEAR A COL IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TODAY. THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST. IN 36-48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND...WITH THIS RIDGE
BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOMORROW...AND TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
2-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
COMES TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 16.5N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
REDUCED TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE
OF THE INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND
SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING
THE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM MODEL ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.
ASIDE FROM SOME MEANDERING...THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RAYMOND IS LOCATED NEAR A COL IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TODAY. THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A
NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST. IN 36-48
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND...WITH THIS RIDGE
BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOMORROW...AND TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
2-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
COMES TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 16.5N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221132
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
...RAYMOND STILL STATIONARY...
...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 102.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. RAYMOND
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND
COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAYMOND IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY IF THE CENTER OF
RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING
AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTPZ32 KNHC 221132
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
...RAYMOND STILL STATIONARY...
...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 102.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. RAYMOND
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND
COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAYMOND IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY IF THE CENTER OF
RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING
AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
While Lorenzo looks a lot stronger than the last advisory indicted, Raymond looks a lot weaker. Dvorak at 4.0. Convection decreasing, eye less apparent. Probably due to considerable upwelling of cool water.
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tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 19183
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221441
TCDEP2
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
THE CLOUD PRESENTATION OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AS
THE COVERAGE AND SYMMETRY OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
DECREASED. ALSO...A 1032Z SSM/I PASS SHOWED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
ERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800Z TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF
THE INTENSITY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST
AND WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE
TO THE COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEGINNING BY 24 HOURS. AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 103.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.0N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTPZ42 KNHC 221441
TCDEP2
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
THE CLOUD PRESENTATION OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AS
THE COVERAGE AND SYMMETRY OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
DECREASED. ALSO...A 1032Z SSM/I PASS SHOWED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
ERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
RAYMOND AROUND 1800Z TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF
THE INTENSITY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST
AND WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE
TO THE COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEGINNING BY 24 HOURS. AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 103.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.0N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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M a r k
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
I can't figure out how to get anything but the latest HDOB on the NHC's recon page. Would like to check previous reports.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URPN15-USAF.shtml?text
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URPN15-USAF.shtml?text
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
wxman57 wrote:I can't figure out how to get anything but the latest HDOB on the NHC's recon page. Would like to check previous reports.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URPN15-USAF.shtml?text
This is the first pass...perhaps go to archive sites?
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tolakram
- Admin
- Posts: 19183
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- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
wxman57 wrote:I can't figure out how to get anything but the latest HDOB on the NHC's recon page. Would like to check previous reports.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URPN15-USAF.shtml?text
In here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2013/AHOPN1/?C=M;O=D
Sort by last modified until you see the latest one. Looks like it can only show so many entries and when sorted by name they don't show up.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
18 Z
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M a r k
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
Looks more impressive on satellite now, but recon has yet to measure hurricane-force winds at other than the flight level. Perhaps due to plenty of cool water upwelling since it's been stalled so long?
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