ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Is now inland.

AL, 02, 2013061800, , BEST, 0, 165N, 886W, 30, 1007, TD

[BZSTORM]

Although where I am on the Placencia Peninsula We didn't get much in way of winds today despite landfall very close to us, this video shot in San Pedro shows what being in the NE quadrant can be like miles from the center, T'zac W Gilbertwho posted this on facebook gave permission for it to be shared by anyone https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=52 ... =2&theater

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT
ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW
CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25
KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED
A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS
INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. AS THE
FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
MEXICO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[supercane4867]

00z GFS says it's not done

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED...
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN
GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH
OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN
SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Interesting little jog to the NW according to this position.

AL, 02, 2013061812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 896W, 25, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[Bizzles]

If it makes it through Mexico and crosses into the EPac, will it keep it's name?

Nice.

[TexasF6]

Some of the convection is moving due north as well. TD2 is trying to exit from a different path...


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

12z Best Track

Interesting little jog to the NW according to this position.

AL, 02, 2013061812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 896W, 25, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

its much farther north than that. Visible imagery puts it near 18N

[wxman57]

Center appears to be well north of last NHC estimate. I think it will become Barry in the BoC tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting development.

[Dean4Storms]

The NHC's mission is to help mitigate damage and personal injury from tropical cyclones. In this case, TD 02L is nearing landfall in Belize. Thus, the decision to upgrade is appropriate in my opinion. However, a depression in the middle Gulf 24 hours or more away from landfall is not an immediate threat and can await confirmation before upgrading. At least in my opinion that is true.

There are also shipping and oil rig concerns in the Gulf that you're forgetting. I thought the NHC used obs, sat. presentations, e.t.c... in determining classifications not if it was a threat soon enough. That is not the way they are suppose to classify these systems.

[Dean4Storms]

Center appears to be well north of last NHC estimate. I think it will become Barry in the BoC tomorrow.

Agree, much of the structure will survive this land interaction and we all know the reputation for the BOC.

[Alyono]

The NHC's mission is to help mitigate damage and personal injury from tropical cyclones. In this case, TD 02L is nearing landfall in Belize. Thus, the decision to upgrade is appropriate in my opinion. However, a depression in the middle Gulf 24 hours or more away from landfall is not an immediate threat and can await confirmation before upgrading. At least in my opinion that is true.

There are also shipping and oil rig concerns in the Gulf that you're forgetting. I thought the NHC used obs, sat. presentations, e.t.c... in determining classifications not if it was a threat soon enough. That is not the way they are suppose to classify these systems.

Offshore companies tend to use private industry for hurricane forecasts

[cycloneye]

A shift more north at 12z.

[cycloneye]

You can see how it has jogged more to the NW in the past few hours.

[TexasF6]

Slightly off topic, but perhaps not, I noticed a cool Eddy like feature on the water vapor loop? Looks like a white cloud flash in a semi circle? then spins itself out. Pretty neat feature!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

[cycloneye]

Missions for today were canceled.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT TUE 18 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-018

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 19/1800Z                A. 20/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0102A CYCLONE     B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1430Z                C. 20/0815Z
       D. 18.8N 93.8W             D. 19.1N 95.4W
       E. 19/1700 TO 19/2100Z     E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 18/2000Z AND FIX MISSION FOR
       19/1200Z ON THIS SYSTEM CANCELED BY NHC AT 18/1230Z

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE
DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN
PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND.
HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300
DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW
RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL SLIGHT
NORTHWARD BIAS OBSERVED IN THE MODELS IN THIS AREA...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 20/0000Z 19.0N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 20/1200Z 19.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

wxman57, you still think TD 2 will become Barry at BOC? I ask because NHC doesn't strengthen it even over water.