CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[WeatherGuesser]

Should get drenched. Kaneohe/Kailua is a pretty wet area here in Oahu.

Looks to be at or near sea level with high hills behind. Could make for a flooding issue if nothing else.

[Yellow Evan]

Do any members here live in Hawaii?

That strengthening was a surprise given the cooler waters. No models forecast it to become a hurricane though...

My daughter does. Even tho she's been in hurricanes here in Texas, this will be her first storm while living there. She's not scared, but I am.

She lives on Oahu in Kaneohe, if anyone has any thoughts on what that area can expect.

I think she can expect a foot or two of rain at worst. Should be a bit north of the center though. But remember,

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[Yellow Evan]

Latest from the NRL.

[Kingarabian]

Should get drenched. Kaneohe/Kailua is a pretty wet area here in Oahu.

Looks to be at or near sea level with high hills behind. Could make for a flooding issue if nothing else.

Major flooding issues. Meanwhile, convection has warmed but an eye is evident...

[Kingarabian]

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Latest from the NRL.

[WeatherGuesser]

WIND

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Big Island and Maui county Monday morning, and are possible on Oahu Monday night.


RAINFALL

Heavy rainfall is expected to begin as early as Monday morning over Hawaii county and Monday afternoon over Maui county, with heavy rain spreading to Oahu by Monday night. Flossie is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches over the Big Island and Maui county, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible, mainly windward. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over Oahu, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible, mainly windward. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in the mountains.


SURF

Dangerously large surf will begin to impact east facing shores of the islands as early as tonight with the largest surf expected on Monday into Tuesday. Be aware that large surf can cause coastal road closures, even before the storm arrives. Please consult the latest hurricane local statement for information specific to your area.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 281513.php

Doesn't look good to me. There's a LOT of people in those areas.

[Yellow Evan]

WIND

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Big Island and Maui county Monday morning, and are possible on Oahu Monday night.


RAINFALL

Heavy rainfall is expected to begin as early as Monday morning over Hawaii county and Monday afternoon over Maui county, with heavy rain spreading to Oahu by Monday night. Flossie is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches over the Big Island and Maui county, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible, mainly windward. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over Oahu, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible, mainly windward. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in the mountains.


SURF

Dangerously large surf will begin to impact east facing shores of the islands as early as tonight with the largest surf expected on Monday into Tuesday. Be aware that large surf can cause coastal road closures, even before the storm arrives. Please consult the latest hurricane local statement for information specific to your area.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 281513.php

Doesn't look good to me. There's a LOT of people in those areas.

I won't be shocked to see find out Hawaii will get more than 15 inches, Hiki 50 caused over 50 inches, and several storms have cuased more than 20.

[Yellow Evan]

Still trying to form an eye. Doubt it will get to cane status though. Maybe, just maybe 60 knts though.

[WeatherGuesser]

Local coverage:

KHON: http://www.khon2.com/2013/07/27/flossie ... from-hilo/

Hawaii News Now: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/2294 ... rm-flossie

Maui Now: http://mauinow.com/2013/07/27/flossie-e ... -72-hours/

KITV: http://www.kitv.com/weather/hurricanes/ ... index.html

[Kingarabian]

Latest SSMIS pass.

[Yellow Evan]

What are the odds of a 55 or 50 knt Hawaiian landfall?

[SapphireSea]

What are the odds of a 55 or 50 knt Hawaiian landfall?

Unknown. My GUESS would be pretty good. SSTs on the rise on the path and shear is still fairly light. A minor hurricane is not out of the question. But, I don't know the full story, stable air may be ahead of the system and keep it in check. NHC guidance is the best guess right now, as it should be.

[hawaiigirl]

is waters near the islands warmer? Will Flossie strengthen as it gets closer?- sorry, no meteorologist here... Just trying to learn.

[HURAKAN]

is waters near the islands warmer? Will Flossie strengthen as it gets closer?- sorry, no meteorologist here... Just trying to learn.

part of the latest discussion:

ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR ALOFT...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS
FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN
EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THUS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 1307281453

[Yellow Evan]

I'm a bit surprised they have not been any shelters for Hawaii.

[TexasSam]

My Sister & Brother-n-law live on Maui. I guess I can expect a phone call when she wakes up to all this. LOL! guess I need to walk her through the steps to get ready, you know the drill bottled water, fill the bathtub so yo have water to flush with if the water goes out. all the fun things. She tends to freak out about stuff like this...

[Yellow Evan]

My Sister & Brother-n-law live on Maui. I guess I can expect a phone call when she wakes up to all this. LOL! guess I need to walk her through the steps to get ready, you know the drill bottled water, fill the bathtub so yo have water to flush with if the water goes out. all the fun things. She tends to freak out about stuff like this...

It's not funny. Hope they are safe though.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA31 PHFO 281745
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
800 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

...FLOSSIE MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 147.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY MONDAY MORNING...AND ARE POSSIBLE ON OAHU
MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY...
WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING TO OAHU BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

SURF...DANGEROUSLY LARGE SURF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT WITH THE LARGEST SURF
EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BE AWARE THAT LARGE SURF CAN CAUSE
COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES...EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Latest

[CrazyC83]

The overwhelming majority of Hawaii's population is in the leeward part of Oahu, which should get a lot less actual rainfall - but runoff from the mountains would still be an issue.

The eastern (windward) slopes, like Hilo, Haiku, Kaluhui, Kailua Kona and Hana will get the big rainfall and major flood potential.