ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville afternoon discussion..

''.LONG TERM...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DUE
TO AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND AND
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST. MODELS AREA IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GFS/ECMWF PROJECT THE PATH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE TO ENTERED MEXICO AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BLOCKING THE LOWER VALLEY OF
ANY DIRECT IMPACT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE
FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD AND AS A RESULT
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RGV. THIS
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE CWA WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AT THIS TIME. THE PROLONGED EAST FLOW WITH THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATION BETWEEN
2 TO 4 INCHES MORE ASIDE TO THE RAIN WE HAD THE PAST WEEK. SINCE
THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM ALL THE RAIN WE HAD...EXPECT A
POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SW
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FROM SOUTH TEXAS...BUT DO EXPECT THE
RAINFALL TO OCCUR. STAY TUNED TO ANY CHANGES ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE GULF WATERS. DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 85 TO 95 DEGREES FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.''

[ROCK]

I know there is a vigorous rotation deep in the Yucatan, but Is it possible this storm can consolidate further north towards deeper convection? Or are the current dynamics against any type of "center" relocation?

I think if this was sheared to the NE we could get a center relo...seen it happen before..doesnt look all that sheared to me...I think its slightly tilted though to the SW.....

[Wx_Warrior]

IMO, if it sits, I can see Brownsville.

GOM is wide open next week if this turns tropical.

[Portastorm]

Satellite loop review of the last few hours shows a very disorganized system and that MLC which many of us were tracking this morning seems to have diminished. Think this thing has a while to go before any consolidation. However, the overall cloud pattern does have "the look." Just my two pesos.

[South Texas Storms]

I know there is a vigorous rotation deep in the Yucatan, but Is it possible this storm can consolidate further north towards deeper convection? Or are the current dynamics against any type of "center" relocation?

I think if this was sheared to the NE we could get a center relo...seen it happen before..doesnt look all that sheared to me...I think its slightly tilted though to the SW.....

But most of the convection is currently NE of the MLC. I wonder if that remains the case when it enters the BOC if a relocation of the center could happen.

[South Texas Storms]

IMO, if it sits, I can see Brownsville.

GOM is wide open next week if this turns tropical.

I agree with you on that. IMO, the longer it sits and spins in the BOC, the greater chance it has to move further north once the ridge slides off to the SE US.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I've got the low at 891W 188N moving west-northwest.

[Rgv20]

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Tropical cyclone development is likely over the Bay of Campeche later this week. The next name on the list will be "Ingrid". We'll need to keep an eye on the possibility of minor coastal flooding this weekend and early next week if something does indeed develop. Rip currents and increased surf will also be a hazard.

[PauleinHouston]

Here's a google earth snapshot of all best track points including 18Z today:

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2013 18:00 Z

Location at the time:
68 statue miles (109 km) to the WSW (258°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1008 mb (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa)

Coordinates:
18.3N 89.3W


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[Hammy]

Here's a google earth snapshot of all best track points including 18Z today:

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Wednesday, Sep. 11, 2013 18:00 Z

Location at the time:
68 statue miles (109 km) to the WSW (258°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1008 mb (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa)

Coordinates:
18.3N 89.3W


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

looks to be taking the same northwest turn as it gets closer to the Gulf as Barry and Fernand did, but starting out farther north.

[PauleinHouston]

looks to be taking the same northwest turn as it gets closer to the Gulf as Barry and Fernand did, but starting out farther north.

Just like you said a few pages back ...disorganized at this point, but to be expected, although the visible presentation still is good imo for having crossed such a large amount of landmass so far:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[cycloneye]

Will new invest 90E in EPAC located south of BOC have an influence on 93L? All is part of the big monsoon gyre.

[TexWx]

I think it would.

[HouTXmetro]

Someone mentioned Fujiwara effect earlier. Maybe that's why It's going stay stuck in the BOC for a while.

[Portastorm]

No, there won't be a Fujiwara effect as you have to have two developed systems. This was explained by a pro met in a different storm thread earlier this summer. However, I think it is very possible that the developing EPAC system would have an effect on 93L, depending on which one develops first. This really is a monsoonal slop-gyre setup down there.

[cycloneye]

It would be good for the men in blue to chim in on this interesting scenario developing.

[Alyono]

the EPAC disturbance will almost certainly simply become part of the inflow of 93L

[PauleinHouston]

No, there won't be a Fujiwara effect as you have to have two developed systems. This was explained by a pro met in a different storm thread earlier this summer. However, I think it is very possible that the developing EPAC system would have an effect on 93L, depending on which one develops first. This really is a monsoonal slop-gyre setup down there.

Porta...afternoon from League City/South of Houston. So, can you give me a bit of insight as to what sort of affect might be expected...in either scenario...i.e.- 93L develops first or the EPAC system first?

Concur with Portastorm, very monsoonal gyre mess. Between the Epac and Boc systems whichever develops quicker/dominant will likely cause the other to be weaker.

And why is that? Available moisture or venting?

[Ntxw]

Concur with Portastorm, very monsoonal gyre mess. Between the Epac and Boc systems whichever develops quicker/dominant will likely cause the other to be weaker.

[PauleinHouston]

the EPAC disturbance will almost certainly simply become part of the inflow of 93L

Fair enough...and what about the deep ULL over East Texas area? Fairly significant surface pressure falls across SE/SCentral and West Texas.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/geir304&width=640&height=480