ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Alyono]

I would not say this is rapidly organizing. It already has passed the most favorable environmental conditions. Conditions will only get more hostile from here on out.

Still thinking this will be a June-like sheared mess heading toward the northern Gulf. Thus, while I think GFS is too weak, it has the right idea this time

[Dean4Storms]

Crazy HWRF, 18z back to south TX with a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

00z plots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0001 UTC THU AUG 15 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130815 0000 130815 1200 130816 0000 130816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 85.0W 19.2N 87.4W 20.2N 89.5W 20.9N 91.2W
BAMD 17.8N 85.0W 18.8N 86.7W 19.5N 88.4W 20.0N 89.9W
BAMM 17.8N 85.0W 18.8N 86.9W 19.7N 88.7W 20.2N 90.4W
LBAR 17.8N 85.0W 18.8N 86.9W 20.1N 88.9W 21.5N 90.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130817 0000 130818 0000 130819 0000 130820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.3N 92.5W 21.6N 95.1W 21.1N 97.5W 20.2N 100.1W
BAMD 20.4N 91.5W 21.2N 94.4W 21.6N 96.6W 21.7N 99.0W
BAMM 20.6N 92.0W 21.1N 95.0W 20.9N 97.5W 20.4N 100.3W
LBAR 23.1N 92.4W 27.3N 93.1W 34.0N 90.4W 37.5N 84.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 85.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 81.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Dean4Storms]

18z NAVGEM to AL/MS border with weak TS.

[cycloneye]

00z tracks.

[tailgater]

[quote="cycloneye"]00z tracks.

[img]http://oi43.tinypic.com/
24nfw3n.jpg[/img][/quote

Watch out Gal/Houston you've got the bullseye,!

[ROCK]

looks like some big shifts tonight again..the BAMM suite change a full 180 degrees today... HWRF now back to STexas as a hurricane as it was last night...

[ROCK]

18Z GFS Ensembles.....

[wxman57]

looks like some big shifts tonight again..the BAMM suite change a full 180 degrees today... HWRF now back to STexas as a hurricane as it was last night...

Time to ignore the BAMs. They're not dynamic and won't see the changing pattern across the Gulf. BAM models are generally only good south of about 15N latitude when a system is tracking west beneath the Bermuda high.

Convection weakening now. Shear maps indicate decreasing shear over the next 24 to 48 hrs then increasing as it approaches the central Gulf Friday evening. Not low, but not TOO high before then. I'm not sure the models have the upper winds right (GFS), so they may not have the shear prediction right.

[ROCK]

0Z intensity guidance

[ROCK]

looks like some big shifts tonight again..the BAMM suite change a full 180 degrees today... HWRF now back to STexas as a hurricane as it was last night...

Time to ignore the BAMs. They're not dynamic and won't see the changing pattern across the Gulf. BAM models are generally only good south of about 15N latitude when a system is tracking west beneath the Bermuda high.

Convection weakening now. Shear maps indicate decreasing shear over the next 24 to 48 hrs then increasing as it approaches the central Gulf Friday evening. Not low, but not TOO high before then. I'm not sure the models have the upper winds right (GFS), so they may not have the shear prediction right.

Oh, I pretty much ignore them...just making light they flipped another 1200 miles...lol convection really thinning out so nothing at the surface to suggest a LLC....will be inland tomorrow so might have a rough road ahead.

[ROCK]

FIM9 does an about face and just send some moisture up towards MS/AL....and the rest of the wave heads west.....no closed circulation that I can tell...

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM

thinking that the MLC get shaved off and heads up into the trof while the rest moves west....this is a big change since every run since like forever has showed a closed circulation.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS shows little development as does every run of the ECMWF the past several days.

The 18Z FIM model also has suddenly dropped development.

Good news is that conditions still don't look favorable for any kind of strong system in the Gulf right now and a hurricane doesn't look likely at the moment.

Some kind of sheared elonged tropical system looks more likely but it could end up being quite a rainmaker.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jeff]

Northern cluster of models are about 24 hours faster on the timing than the southern clustering. Given the steady forward motion today it seems the quicker motion is more likely and the northern guidance set most likely at the moment. Some pretty nasty shear is noted over the NW Gulf west of the TC track clustering this weekend so fully expect what comes northward will be wet and lopsided to the east with dry air and shear impacting from the WNW and NW.

Moisture and slow moving trough will bring the threat for tremendous tropical rains inland across areas already dealing with way above normal rainfall this summer. The legacy of this system may be some very serious inland flooding across the SE and E US.

[deltadog03]

Thats the thing I expect for my DMA....Very heavy rain and thunder over GA

[ninel conde]

Northern cluster of models are about 24 hours faster on the timing than the southern clustering. Given the steady forward motion today it seems the quicker motion is more likely and the northern guidance set most likely at the moment. Some pretty nasty shear is noted over the NW Gulf west of the TC track clustering this weekend so fully expect what comes northward will be wet and lopsided to the east with dry air and shear impacting from the WNW and NW.

Moisture and slow moving trough will bring the threat for tremendous tropical rains inland across areas already dealing with way above normal rainfall this summer. The legacy of this system may be some very serious inland flooding across the SE and E US.

exactly what we didnt need. could be a disaster in the making

[Tyler Penland]

Thats the thing I expect for my DMA....Very heavy rain and thunder over GA

Out of curiosity, how far north do you see this going? Trying to decide exactly what to expect up here in terms of rainfall. Getting some somewhat unexpected heavy rain today and really any more will result in flooding. IMO NOLA->HSV->MRX could all see some hefty totals out of this.

[Tyler Penland]

Thats the thing I expect for my DMA....Very heavy rain and thunder over GA

Out of curiosity, how far north do you see this going? Trying to decide exactly what to expect up here in terms of rainfall. Getting some somewhat unexpected heavy rain today and really any more will result in flooding. IMO NOLA->HSV->MRX could all see some hefty totals out of this.

[deltadog03]

I would say maybe 4-6" total rain from today through Sunday around here possible. I would say 2-4" for yall

[Tyler Penland]

Thats the thing I expect for my DMA....Very heavy rain and thunder over GA

Out of curiosity, how far north do you see this going? Trying to decide exactly what to expect up here in terms of rainfall. Getting some somewhat unexpected heavy rain today and really any more will result in flooding. IMO NOLA->HSV->MRX could all see some hefty totals out of this.