CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

ADT numbers raising this past hour.

Code: Select all

 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.9mb/ 47.0kt

     
 Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
  3.1     3.2     3.9

I highly doubt they'll raise it to 50 knts though.

[Kingarabian]

ADT numbers raising this past hour.

Code: Select all

 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.9mb/ 47.0kt

     
 Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
  3.1     3.2     3.9

I highly doubt they'll raise it to 50 knts though.

If SAB/TAFB both go up to 3.5 they should raise it. Especially with what the ASCAT pass showed.

[Kingarabian]

Core still intact.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT numbers raising this past hour.

Code: Select all

 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.9mb/ 47.0kt

     
 Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
  3.1     3.2     3.9

I highly doubt they'll raise it to 50 knts though.

If SAB/TAFB both go up to 3.5 they should raise it. Especially with what the ASCAT pass showed.

The ASCAT pass was from this afternoon I thought.

[Yellow Evan]

More boarder look on all of the Big Island's canes. Most storms that threatened Hawaii were in the 70's and 80's.

Will Flossie make landfall remains the big question and it IMO is becoming more and more likely.

[Yellow Evan]

BTW, the CPHC did something truly inexcusable, they failed to issue an intermediate advisory.

[Kingarabian]

BTW, the CPHC did something truly inexcusable, they failed to issue an intermediate advisory.

They also failed to issue a Hurricane Warning for Hurricane Iniki in 1993 until less than 24 hours before landfall. Not surprised. I wish the NHC in Florida was responsible for the CPAC. The CPHC is useless with the scarce amount of storms that form or enter that basin.

[Yellow Evan]

BTW, the CPHC did something truly inexcusable, they failed to issue an intermediate advisory.

They also failed to issue a Hurricane Warning for Hurricane Iniki in 1993 until less than 24 hours before landfall. Not surprised. I wish the NHC in Florida was responsible for the CPAC. The CPHC is useless with the scarce amount of storms that form or enter that basin.

Regarding Iniki, it was a different situation. Prior to Iniki, the CPHC had a problem of issuing hurricane watches for every storm that came near the islands likely due to computer models not being nearly as skilled as they are today. Iniki I can somewhat understand, during the 80's and 90's when they had many storms enter the region, they were decent. But now they seem not to care. I hate to say this, but I think a re-Iwa or Iniki will happen in a few years. I've long been in favor of shutting down the CPHC, even though they were an decent agency back then, they should have been shut down in 1988 when the EPHC folded. I still can't believe there is no intermediate for Flossie. From their website "They may be issued every two or three hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect."

[hawaiigirl]

do you think that their not taking it serious or they don't want to scare us because they know they f'd up when our governor decided to spend our hurricane relief fund?

[supercane4867]

Up to 50kt

EP, 06, 2013072806, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1443W, 50, 998, TS,

[Kingarabian]

do you think that their not taking it serious or they don't want to scare us because they know they f'd up when our governor decided to spend our hurricane relief fund?

I was thinking of this. But let's not get into politics.

[Kingarabian]

It's already 11PM HST and no 11PM advisory...

[Kingarabian]

WTPA41 PHFO 280849
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...AND CIRRUS
OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATING THAT
FLOSSIE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
BULLETIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 50 KT...
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 275
DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS.

ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SOMEWHAT ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST
WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
THEREAFTER...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 120
HOURS...WHICH IS LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF FROM THE
SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
FORCE FLOSSIE TOWARD DUE WEST...AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AROUND MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. WITH
PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INCREASING FOR OAHU...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 19.4N 145.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.8N 147.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.0N 151.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 20.0N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 20.1N 157.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 20.4N 164.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 20.5N 171.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

678
WTHW80 PHFO 280910
HLSHFO

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1110 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES AS A THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR BIG ISLAND MAUI
MOLOKAI LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED
FOR OAHU.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...
KAHOOLAWE...MAUI...THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY WATERS...
WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI CHANNEL...OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS AND OAHU LEEWARD WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
BEGINNING AT 600 AM HST MONDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4N...LONGITUDE 145.2W...OR ABOUT 645 MI EAST OF
HILO HAWAII...OR ABOUT 835 MI EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII. TROPICAL
STORM FLOSSIE IS MOVING W AT 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE NOW BEEN
ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.
EVEN SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING EFFECTS CAN
EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH MAKE CONTINUING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DANGEROUS. A WATCH IS THE TIME FOR YOU
TO PREPARE.

A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. A WARNING IS THE TIME
FOR YOU TO FINISH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND BEGIN MOVING TO SAFE
SHELTER.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...
SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

[WeatherGuesser]

I think I prefer the CPHC format/page layout over NHC.




What's the time conversion from Central time? (I guess I could find it .... )

[Alyono]

Flossie now nearly a cane and yet no recon

Who made the decision to not fly Flossie? A near cane 24 hours from landfall in the USA and no recon?

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

EP, 06, 2013072812, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1460W, 55, 996, TS

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
200 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 145.8W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

Hmmmm, will it make it to H1 before it falls back?

Guess we'll see soon.

[senorpepr]

Some slight near-term development of Flossie, but weakening should start soon as Flossie approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The key concern will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds, especially in the windward portions of Hawaii and Maui Counties.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iq8M_NI5ZKQ[/youtube]