ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N37W TO A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 8N39W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTION NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE AXIS EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 40W-44W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[Gustywind]

WHXX01 KWBC 071145
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 UTC SUN JUL 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130707 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130707 1200 130708 0000 130708 1200 130709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.0N 40.8W 10.4N 45.5W 12.1N 50.7W 14.2N 55.7W
BAMD 9.0N 40.8W 9.9N 45.1W 11.2N 49.4W 12.9N 53.4W
BAMM 9.0N 40.8W 10.0N 45.5W 11.3N 50.4W 13.0N 55.0W
LBAR 9.0N 40.8W 10.0N 45.0W 11.4N 49.6W 13.0N 54.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130709 1200 130710 1200 130711 1200 130712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 60.9W 20.3N 70.1W 24.0N 75.9W 27.8N 77.6W
BAMD 14.6N 56.9W 17.2N 62.5W 18.2N 65.7W 17.6N 67.4W
BAMM 14.8N 59.4W 18.3N 67.3W 21.8N 72.7W 24.9N 74.7W
LBAR 14.5N 58.2W 18.1N 64.7W 28.2N 55.3W 26.4N 56.3W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 40.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 8.4N LONM12 = 36.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 7.9N LONM24 = 32.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Gustywind]

Again... increasing numbers continue for 95L!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/1145 UTC 9.1N 41.1W T2.0/2.0 95L -- Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir


20130707.1145.95LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-90N-408W

[ouragans]

Best track updated

AL, 95, 2013070712, , BEST, 0, 90N, 408W, 30, 1008, WV

[caneman]

Anyone see this slowing down at all? Heading for a cruise to the Bahamas around Wed. so this could be a problem.

[Hurricane_Luis]

There is some spinning going on, but there is still no closed surface circulation.

Invest 95L

[cycloneye]

Circulation appears to be semiexposed.

[Weatherboy1]

Sure looks to me like like there's a circulation center at the NE corner of the main ball of convection. Maybe 9/41?

[northjaxpro]

This looks ominous for the Bahamas in the coming days, and potentially the SE Atlantic U.S. coast down the road. I agree with the troughing pattern that the turn will probably occur somewhere from 75-80 degrees longitude.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Circulation appears to be semiexposed.

Does it mean, that shear is a bit strong in vicinity of 95L or not?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Circulation appears to be semiexposed.

Does it mean, that shear is a bit strong in vicinity of 95L or not?

A combination of moving fast,dry air in area and maybe some shear from the north is exposing center to the north of convection. It has to slowdown to have a better chance to organize.

[wxman57]

Impressive disturbance, but conditions are just a bit hostile for development for the next 4-5 days. Should bring some squalls and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Could be a threat to the southeast U.S. next weekend.

[Blown Away]

JB tweeting about 95L.

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF shows a large break in the ridge over the SE United States by next weekend:

[Jevo]

7/7 6z HWRF Short term track and intensity

[blp]

Recent ASCAT.

[gatorcane]

Didn't the long-range CFS from about 3 or 4 weeks ago show exactly this scenario with a weak Cape Verde system passing near or through the NE Leewards?

If so kudos for it picking this up so far out.

[SFLcane]

The way this is going I won't be surprised if this heads out to sea or possibly threaten Bermuda but well shall see still early in the game. As gatorcane stated there will be a break in the ridge as shown by the European model.


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