ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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N2FSU
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#21 Postby N2FSU » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:48 am

00Z Euro; 144hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:05 am

Looks to be somewhat substantial as in at least a tropical storm or subtropical storm at landfall based on the NAVGEM and GFS (and certainly the CMC). I like the ideas of the system coming up north and then fading off NE/NNE out front of the front. Clearly the season isn't dead, as this well could be the J storm and perhaps the 6th system to impact the Western Hemisphere. Of course half the foum are Baghdad Bobs telling us it's a non-season, but whatever on that. I'm wondering if southern Walton and Okaloosa Counties are the rainiest places in the CONUS this year.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#23 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:11 am

Steve wrote:. I'm wondering if southern Walton and Okaloosa Counties are the rainiest places in the CONUS this year.

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Don't forget about Bay County.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:34 am

06 GFS and 06 FIM9 keep a TD/TS down in the BOC for 5 days. 06 GFS Ensembles show the same as operational. Trof doesnt get it....

the 0Z CMC and 06Z NAVGEM only really seeing something coming up into the NGOM where the Trof does have enough depth to pick it up...

the 0Z EURO last night just has a strung low pressure in the WGOM. Not much to look at....

12Z runs coming up..
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#25 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:37 am

we have a better shot at this one rock!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#26 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:38 am

stormlover2013 wrote:we have a better shot at this one rock!!


Are you located in Texas, stormlover2013? It would be great if you would update your profile to indicate where you are located. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#27 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:46 am

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

12Z BAMMS.....lets get this party started!.... :lol:...looks sort of similiar... :D

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Last edited by ROCK on Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#28 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:48 am

I just updated it sorry!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#29 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:15 am

Looks Mexico bound again. Those folks just can't get a break.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#30 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:17 am

12Z GFS just strings out a bunch of lows on the GOM at 132hr....12Z CMC / NAVGEM just started.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#31 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:21 am

GFS as bad as the Steelers offense. And the NAVgem was spot on with Ingrid. SPOT ON. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#32 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:29 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:GFS as bad as the Steelers offense. And the NAVgem was spot on with Ingrid. SPOT ON. :lol:



lol...the NAVGEM had one bad run..I know I saw all of them since Ingrid was just a cloud....it still needs some proving to do.
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#33 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:37 am

Come on now is ANY model truely perfect?
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#34 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:38 am

The Southeast U.S. ridge is already breaking down at 72 hours - I don't think this one takes the Ingrid path into Mexico. Look for it to get pulled north from somewhere around the SW Gulf / Yucatan area and if it develops become a threat for somebody along the Gulf:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#35 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:41 am

but does anything develop? and would front block anything at surface?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#36 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:57 am

12Z GEM thinks SW LA now.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_15.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#37 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:58 am

12Z NAVGEM...96hr...looks like CMC

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_17.png
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#38 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:02 pm

If the Florida path verified would Georgia and South Carolina get rain from it or would it likely be in Southern Florida?

And I mean IF it went to Florida...answers are appreciated. :)

EDIT: I will post this in the discussion thread instead of here...a moderator can feel free to delete this. :)
Last edited by SeGaBob on Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#39 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:03 pm

take that back on the NAV.....at 120hr in the central GOM...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png

132hr moving towards FL...looks like prior run...
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#40 Postby N2FSU » Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:04 pm

12Z GFS; 126hr

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