ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[SFLcane]

At that latitude I wouldn't hold my breath more then likely will recurve but we shall see. Could be seasons first cane

Its at 8.2N. How much further south can it get?

Expected to gain some latitude

[Hammy]

looping IR imagery on NRL I have a hard time buying the position estimate as the winds appear to be onshore at about 14-15N.

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090300, , BEST, 0, 89N, 153W, 20, 1009, DB

[Extratropical94]

3. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

06z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090306, , BEST, 0, 97N, 163W, 20, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013090312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 165W, 20, 1009, DB

[wxman57]

Time to drop this invest and initiate one near the Yucatan.

[Gustywind]

First appareance on SSD.

03/1200 UTC 9.8N 16.2W TOO WEAK 98L

[Florida1118]

Down to a roaring 0%.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers. Big jump to the North!

03/1800 UTC 13.4N 20.4W TOO WEAK 98L
03/1200 UTC 9.8N 16.2W TOO WEAK 98L

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very weak, dried out and sad like all the waves that preceded it, whether they developed or not.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

What a dud CV season so far...hope it stays that way.......MGC

[TheStormExpert]

And to think back in May and June everyone was assuming this would be an active Cape Verde season.

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309032305
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[SeGaBob]

Not really a surprise the way this season has been.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

And to think back in May and June everyone was assuming this would be an active Cape Verde season.

Not everyone, see my posts from back in July and even late June.

[ninel conde]

the mighty 98L has struck out.