ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Yikes 18z GFS now down in moderate TS range. Looks like wxman57s forecast of a 65 mph TS might come true.

Sure does, GFS 18z down to 998mb and up to 60kts at landfall around P'Cola at 900mb.

[Dean4Storms]

I kind of expected an 18z Tropical Model output???

[cycloneye]

First plots at 00z.


391
WHXX01 KWBC 140041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 0000 130814 1200 130815 0000 130815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 81.4W 17.0N 83.9W 17.9N 86.2W 18.6N 88.2W
BAMD 16.2N 81.4W 17.1N 83.3W 18.1N 85.3W 19.1N 87.2W
BAMM 16.2N 81.4W 17.1N 83.4W 18.0N 85.4W 18.8N 87.4W
LBAR 16.2N 81.4W 17.0N 83.1W 18.3N 85.0W 19.7N 87.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 0000 130817 0000 130818 0000 130819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 89.9W 20.0N 92.0W 20.7N 94.3W 21.6N 97.5W
BAMD 20.0N 89.0W 21.4N 91.6W 22.9N 93.4W 24.7N 95.3W
BAMM 19.6N 89.1W 20.8N 91.6W 21.9N 93.8W 23.1N 96.3W
LBAR 21.5N 88.8W 25.1N 90.7W 31.2N 89.4W 38.0N 84.3W
SHIP 47KTS 64KTS 71KTS 71KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 81.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 80.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[NDG]

I don't agree with the BAM models forecast track of a westerly track almost straight west towards the BOC, but then again they were started on the MLC that the much sufisticated GFS forecasts to die out and for a new vorticity to take over further north.

[Rgv20]

First Models Plots for 92L



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

man those tracks look like the EURO, UKMET, and the NAM....who would have thought that?

[bamajammer4eva]

Ships showing strong tropical storm-but is that assuming it takes the southern track minus the land interactions that DShips shows? Would the further North track be much weaker as GFS/Canadian/Nogaps show?

[lester]

man those tracks look like the EURO, UKMET, and the NAM....who would have thought that?

too bad they're the bamm models, wake me up when it shows the real models

[ROCK]

I am sniffing a major model swing at 0Z on some of the big boys....

[NDG]

I am sniffing a major model swing at 0Z on some of the big boys....

The day the GFS is wrong and the BAM models and NAM are correct might as well destroy the GFS, lol.

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z ECM Ensembles already started to show a split with the energy toward the northern Gulf. If the Vort to the north takes off the ECM will swing.

[Stormcenter]

Swing where?

I am sniffing a major model swing at 0Z on some of the big boys....

[gatorcane]

Latest HPC discussion about the models:

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... GFS/CMC RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAY 5 SUN. AS PER CONTINUITY FROM
NHC/WPC COORDINATION FROM MON AUG 12 PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD
CONSENSUS OF OTHER GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT TAKES
A MORE SRN TRACK INTO THE SWRN GULF. ONE OTHER ISSUE OVER THE
EAST IS EXACT POSITIONING OF THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SFC FRONT.
THE ECMWF STILL BRINGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD BUT APPEARS TO HAVE
BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM EARLIER DAYS

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[canetracker]

I am sniffing a major model swing at 0Z on some of the big boys....

The day the GFS is wrong and the BAM models and NAM are correct might as well destroy the GFS, lol.

Agreed NDG.

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

Swing where?

I am sniffing a major model swing at 0Z on some of the big boys....

Towards the lone star state....yesterday it was season cancel on thge board, today its two invests

[tropicwatch]

The upper level low northwest of Invest 92l would really have to erode or move significantly for a Texas landfall IMO.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

The fact that the 12z euro has the vorticity and even shows a low pressure area in the BOC leads me to lean toward a more southern track. GFS has a right bias, euro has a somewhat of a left bias, so it seems logical somewhere in between might be the answer.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

00UTC SHIPs output below.

Notice it is showing the shear increasing by days 4 and 5:

SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 0 2 1 9 4 12 6 15 14 20

Code: Select all

 *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL922013  08/14/13  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    27    30    38    47    57    64    68    71    72    71
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    27    30    38    30    28    38    42    45    46    45
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    25    30    27    27    36    44    51    56    61
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         2     3     1     0     2     1     9     4    12     6    15    14    20
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1    -1     0     1     0    -2    -1    -5    -3    -4     0    -2    -1
SHEAR DIR        133   153   159   326   208   100   151   144   175   240   205   270   255
SST (C)         28.9  28.9  29.1  29.2  29.3  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.4  29.6  29.6  29.2
POT. INT. (KT)   149   150   154   155   157   155   154   153   153   157   160   161   153
ADJ. POT. INT.   140   145   148   149   150   146   142   139   138   141   144   144   136
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     7     9    10     8    11     9    12    10    12    10    13
700-500 MB RH     73    74    74    72    73    70    69    64    61    51    51    48    48
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     7     7     7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    55    46    34    26    29    12    -2    14    40     0     0   -21   -16
200 MB DIV        90    62    49    46    50    47    41    33    20    -4    13    11    23
700-850 TADV       1     0     0    -1     3     0     2     0     1    -2     6    -3     7
LAND (KM)        234   201   167   190   236    14  -154    -7   127   237   352   247   153
LAT (DEG N)     16.2  16.7  17.1  17.6  18.0  18.8  19.6  20.2  20.8  21.2  21.9  22.5  23.1
LONG(DEG W)     81.4  82.4  83.4  84.4  85.4  87.4  89.1  90.4  91.6  92.6  93.8  95.0  96.3
STM SPEED (KT)     7    11    11    11    10    10     8     6     6     6     6     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      25    30    36    41    48    28     0    20    23    26    36    36    34

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  4      CX,CY:  -3/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  539  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  54.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   0.   5.  11.  19.  24.  29.  33.  36.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   5.   6.  10.  12.  14.  15.  15.  15.  14.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  10.  18.  27.  37.  44.  48.  51.  52.  51.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013     INVEST 08/14/13  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   1.8 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.5 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  36.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  59.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    39% is   3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     7% is   2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013     INVEST 08/14/13  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013     INVEST 08/14/2013  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

[ROCK]

I never said a Texas issue? not sure where you are going with that.....but whatever