CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

#21 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:46 am

I'm a bit surprised that it is still 20%.

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 1:00 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:12 pm

12z ECMWF sends 98E/Flossie to Hawaii.

#24 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF sends 98E/Flossie to Hawaii.

[img][/img]

Yep. Stronger than it was yesterday.
12z ECMWF 7-22-13

12z ECMWF 7-21-13

#25 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:37 pm

12Z GFS echos its past runs and brings Flossie over Hawaii. Either way we have consensus between two reliable major models... Bears watching for sure. 200 hours out is a long time though so a large margin for error remains.

#26 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:03 pm

From the NHC EPAC discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AROUND A LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 11N108W...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT E OF 120W. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE
LOW SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
INTENSIFYING THROUGH SUN W OF 120W. A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WAS USED FOR FORECAST GRIDS.

#27 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:38 pm

Very very nice low level convergence. I doubt it will have any problems firing convection.

#28 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:Very very nice low level convergence. I doubt it will have any problems firing convection.

RL3AO, do you think it will pay a visit to the Islands?

#29 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:55 pm

I don't know. Its a long ways away and its a pretty small target to hit. :lol:

#30 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 5:10 pm

Most models have it becoming a hurricane soon AFAIK. I doubt it will happen soon, later this week, yea, but not during the next 24 to 36 hours IMO

#31 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 5:56 pm

I'd raise it to 40% at the next TWO.

jaguarjace · #32 Postby **jaguarjace** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BERG

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 22, 2013 7:57 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 98, 2013072300, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1089W, 25, 1007, LO

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC TUE JUL 23 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982013) 20130723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130723 0000 130723 1200 130724 0000 130724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 108.9W 14.4N 111.0W 15.5N 113.3W 16.7N 115.9W
BAMD 13.1N 108.9W 13.8N 111.2W 14.7N 113.6W 15.6N 116.0W
BAMM 13.1N 108.9W 14.0N 111.3W 15.0N 113.7W 16.0N 116.2W
LBAR 13.1N 108.9W 14.1N 111.3W 15.4N 114.4W 16.7N 117.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130725 0000 130726 0000 130727 0000 130728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 118.8W 20.0N 125.6W 22.1N 133.0W 22.8N 140.5W
BAMD 16.6N 118.5W 18.7N 124.0W 20.9N 129.7W 23.1N 134.5W
BAMM 17.0N 118.8W 19.0N 124.8W 20.9N 131.3W 22.3N 137.7W
LBAR 18.1N 121.0W 21.2N 126.9W 24.0N 131.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 56KTS 48KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 56KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 108.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 107.5W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 105.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 270NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#34 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:11 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230503
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

#35 Postby **Kingarabian** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 4:00 am

0z Euro has 98E/Flossie over Hawaii again. A lil weaker.

#36 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 10:03 am

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:45 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#38 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:46 pm

Time for 98E is starting to run up.

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:48 pm

18z Best Track.

EP, 98, 2013072318, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1156W, 25, 1007, LO

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC TUE JUL 23 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982013) 20130723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130723 1800 130724 0600 130724 1800 130725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 115.6W 12.6N 117.3W 13.4N 119.3W 14.3N 121.4W
BAMD 12.0N 115.6W 12.5N 117.8W 13.3N 120.0W 14.1N 122.2W
BAMM 12.0N 115.6W 12.7N 117.7W 13.5N 119.8W 14.5N 121.9W
LBAR 12.0N 115.6W 12.5N 118.5W 13.2N 121.8W 14.2N 125.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130725 1800 130726 1800 130727 1800 130728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 123.8W 17.9N 129.7W 20.3N 135.8W 21.7N 140.8W
BAMD 14.9N 124.5W 17.1N 129.3W 19.9N 133.7W 22.5N 136.7W
BAMM 15.7N 124.3W 18.3N 129.9W 20.4N 135.3W 21.8N 139.9W
LBAR 15.1N 128.9W 17.2N 135.8W 19.7N 137.6W 20.7N 141.7W
SHIP 59KTS 59KTS 48KTS 42KTS
DSHP 59KTS 59KTS 48KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 115.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 112.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 109.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 270NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#40 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:13 pm

http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mod ... pac_55.png

http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mod ... pac_60.png

CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

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