WPAC: SOULIK- Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

If this become a significant typhoon, then we should give some props to CMC.
it's still moving wsw...
where is it going??- it depends on the STR above it. hehe

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 92W. Future Tropical Storm Soulik. Nice solid convection, spiral banding in the northern part of the storm and an area of tropical storm force winds in the southern part of the storm.

[phwxenthusiast]

If this become a significant typhoon, then we should give some props to CMC.
it's still moving wsw...
where is it going??- it depends on the STR above it. hehe

indeed, amazing how that model sniffed this one out.. and now the other models are starting to follow suit...
12z GFS takes this down to 943mb!

[dexterlabio]

since yesterday i had this feeling that it will be a strong system. Now the GFS is showing it reaching strong Cat2 strength. I won't be surprised if it gets a lot stronger than that.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Now Tropical Depression 07W as per JTWC

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071421ZJUL2013//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 147.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 147.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.2N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.4N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.8N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.9N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.2N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 146.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 071421Z JUL 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 071430). //
NNNN




WDPN31 PGTW 072100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 01 CORRECTED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON THE PGTW
FIX WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE TD IS EXHIBITING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM WAS ORIGINALLY A COLD-CORE
SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT HAS SINCE ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MOVED OUT OF ITS SOURCE REGION, AS EVIDENCED ON RECENT SATELLITE
CROSS-SECTION PRODUCTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. STEERED BY THE STR, TD 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION - TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY
TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD DIRECTON AS THE STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 70 KNOTS
DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 96.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 96;
AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE STEERING RIDGE.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MODEL DISCUSSION IN PARA
3.C. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

097
WTPQ31 PGUM 072218
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072013
800 AM CHST MON JUL 8 2013

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W OVER NORTHERN CNMI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN AND PAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 146.8E

ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 295 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 370 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.8
EAST. 07W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH. 07W IS ANTICIPATED TO
STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.

$$

CHAN

[mrbagyo]

the development of this system greatly resembles the development of typhoon Gordon of 1989. both formed near Wake Island, both originated as cold core low and both have Strong subtropical ridge to its north..let's see if the trend will continue...

I think it will bomb once it enters the warm waters of northern Philippine Sea.
ECMWF and GFS at 96 hr

[jaguarjace]

TS Soulik is looking impressive.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Really fascinating storm Soulik - its unusual formation, potential track and the models suddenly going ballistic with it.

I agree with the comments above, I really wouldn't be surprised to see a very strong typhoon. It looks great already on satellite imagery. Unfortunately it does look like Taiwan and Ryuku islands are going to have to watch this very carefully.

[mrbagyo]

it's starting to build a CDO and maybe an eye...
we will have our first OFFICIAL typhoon of 2013 finally



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[Typhoon Hunter]

Models continuing to forecast bombing out of Soulik. Not often you see ECMWF showing 59m/s winds at 850hPa, which is what it shows in 00z. Shows Soulik raking the Ryuku island before a hard hit on eastern China.



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[Meow]

After the damned 2010 season, 2013 is also the year which first-half part does not have any TY in the 21st century.

Soulik should have more chances to become a typhoon, as JMA has estimated it will become a TY on 10 July.



TS 1307 (SOULIK)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 8 July 2013

<Analyses at 08/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°10'(19.2°)
E143°55'(143.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E141°35'(141.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E139°20'(139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°55'(20.9°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)



Also, it is very impressive for a new-born tropical storm.

[mrbagyo]

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.5N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.7N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 143.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 080535Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AS THE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS HAVE
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS TWO TUTT CELLS, ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE, HAVE AIDED IN UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE TUTT CELLS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS 07W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 WILL PREVAIL AND
PROMOTE STEADY, IF NOT RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 24 AND REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ON A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY THE END OF FORECAST AS VWS AND SUBSIDENCE IMPACT THE
SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SPREADING AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACK MECHANISM;
AFTERWARDS, THE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE STEERING RIDGE.//
NNNN

and it's also aided by TUTT cells (left and right) just like Gordon. whoa

[Typhoon Hunter]

My word, this was a tropical depression less than 12 hours ago, wow!!



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[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking very impressive for a tropical storm especially the banding!

[RobWESTPACWX]

One of the model outlooks (GFS) with a Cat 3 in Okinawa Friday. Most models gunning more and more at this type of outcome intensity wise. Location. HMMM Granted, its Monday and this is for Friday!

[mrbagyo]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2013 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 19:27:33 N Lon : 143:09:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 988.3mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 4.5 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

Center Temp : +4.9C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

My word, this was a tropical depression less than 12 hours ago, wow!!

huge development within less than a day. WOW!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In less than 12 hours, the ACE has racked up to 0.5225 and compare it to Bebinca, which was only 0.4900 in 5 days!!!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA's weather advisory as of 7/8/13 at 10:30 AM
Weather Advisory No. 1
For: Tropical Storm (SOULIK)
Issued at: 10:30 AM, 08 July 2013
At 10:00 a.m. today, a Tropical Storm (International Name: SOULIK) was estimated at 2,140 km East of Basco, Batanes (19.1°N, 145.1°E) outside the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). SOULIK'S maximum sustained winds is 65 kph with gustiness of 80 kph. It is forecast to move west at 20 kph. It is expected to enter the PAR on Wednesday morning and will not have any direct effect on any part of the country within the next 2 days. However, SOULIK will enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring rains on the western part of the country by thursday.

The next advisory will be issued at 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
My prayers go to those will be affected by the storm.