WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track stays at 140kts.

17W USAGI 130920 0000 19.2N 125.5E WPAC 140 918

[Macrocane]

I thought this year we were not going to have a cat 5 in the northern Hemisphere but I was wrrong. If the WPAC had a cat 5 maybe the EPAC and Atlantic will have a major and the North Inidian will have a hurricane equivalent.

[beoumont]

I found this tweet about James going to Taiwan.

Jame Reynolds (@TyphoonFury) flying to Taiwan for first of his hoped for TWO intercepts.

Now that's a chaser's gamble, with the hopes of seeing it in a stronger state before the forecasted weakening down to 95-100 kts. before the storm reaches Hong Kong. Also likely based on the assumption that he might either intercept a cat. 4 or 5 on Taiwan, but if it goes south of the island, he will be able to fly back to Hong Kong on time to see it there. But, the risk is: the Typhoon going 30-40 miles south of the island and only seeing 80-90 mph sustained, but flooding of the roads making it impossible to get back to an airport to get back to his home in Hong Kong, China before the landfall there.

If he does beat it back to Hong Kong, I bet that flight from Taiwan to H.K. will be just a little bit bumpy.

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.2N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.6N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.1N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.8N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.2N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.4N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 125.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

PAGASA-Manila finally has followed suit on its latest bulletin ramping up Super Typhoon ODETTE (Usagi) and prompted the raising of Typhoon Warning Signal Number 4.

They now have Usagi at 205 kph maximum winds.

PAGASA TYPHOON WARNING SIGNALS (as of 11 am Warning)
SIGNAL NUMBER 4 -- Batanes Group of Islands... meaning winds exceeding 185 kph are expected in at least the next 12 hours
SIGNAL NUMBER 3 -- Calayan Group of Islands and Babuyan Group of Islands... meaning winds from 101 to 185 kph
SIGNAL NUMBER 2 -- Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao... meaning winds of 61-100 kph are expected in the next 24 hours
SIGNAL NUMBER 1 -- Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, and Ifugao... meaning winds of 45-60 kph are expected in the next 36 hours

[RobWESTPACWX]

I found this tweet about James going to Taiwan.

Jame Reynolds (@TyphoonFury) flying to Taiwan for first of his hoped for TWO intercepts.

Now that's a chaser's gamble, with the hopes of seeing it in a stronger state before the forecasted weakening down to 95-100 kts. before the storm reaches Hong Kong. Also likely based on the assumption that he might either intercept a cat. 4 or 5 on Taiwan, but if it goes south of the island, he will be able to fly back to Hong Kong on time to see it there. But, the risk is: the Typhoon going 30-40 miles south of the island and only seeing 80-90 mph sustained, but flooding of the roads making it impossible to get back to an airport to get back to his home in Hong Kong, China before the landfall there.

If he does beat it back to Hong Kong, I bet that flight from Taiwan to H.K. will be just a little bit bumpy.

Ya James is flying with Jim Edds as well. They both are going to head south on Taiwan catch the storm and if ther holds get back to HK or at least nearby for the storm by Sunday night. Best of Luck to them!!!


I just put together another video on this. Lots of information jammed in there. Much easier to do this than to post a million photos.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7plIAfUSqY[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

First time signal number 4 has been raised since Super Typhoon Nanmadol in 2011. (though i believe signal number 4 should've been raised last year with STY Bopha).

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 17W HAS MAINTAINED A 140 KNOT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15-NM ROUND EYE WITH A BROKEN BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 192329Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
FURTHER REVEAL THE BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS A WEAKER
BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCIPIENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) AS A WEAK OUTER BAND SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL HAS DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING FEATURES. ADDITIONALLY, A
DEFINED MOAT BETWEEN THE INNER EYEWALL AND CONSOLIDATING OUTER BANDS
IS APPARENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE IN THE
EIR AND MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. STY 17W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CHINA INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24 AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED STR. BASED ON RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS, THE STR IS ASSESSED AS
STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM 150E LONGITUDE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CHINA.
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR 140 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12; HOWEVER, INITIAL
WEAKENING MAY OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
ERC. STY 17W WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO
APPROACH SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING LAND INTERACTION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 17W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG
KONG JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 AND THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
INLAND, BUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like Usagi has peaked in intensity. It still remains a very powerful cyclone though.

[RL3AO]

I'd estimate a peak of 145 to 150kt. There were a few frames where it showed an eye warm enough to get a T7.5

[stormkite]

I hope the track is not to daya bay as some are saying that's where the Nuclear Power Plant is situated.

[RL3AO]

I'm not an expert in Hong Kong geography, but I can't imagine how surge isn't a serious threat here.

[Dean4Storms]

One impressive Storm!

[phwxenthusiast]

extremely low pressures now being recorded in Northern Luzon...
Aparri: 953hPa
Casiguran: 947hPa
Calayan: 910hPa

i'm pretty sure those instruments are off and are probably not calibrated properly or maybe they're just erratic due to the rains and winds (??)...

[euro6208]

I'd estimate a peak of 145 to 150kt. There were a few frames where it showed an eye warm enough to get a T7.5

I think that's too low...this had higher numbers than felix, dean from 2007 and the big storms of the 2005 atlantic hurricane season...Goes to show that the real intensity always lead the highest numbers given...i'd estimate a peak of 160 to 165 knots peak...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

Weakens slightly but remains a very intense STY...Taiwan and especially hong kong- Direct hit!

WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT STY 17W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
DESPITE MAINTAINING A ROUND 14-NM EYE. A 200626Z SSMI IMAGE PROVIDES
EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS DEPICTED: A 40-NM INNER EYEWALL AND A 100-NM OUTER EYEWALL
ARE SEPARATED BY A CLEARLY-DEFINED MOAT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE IN IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS BASED ON THE FINAL-
T ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS AND SLIGHT WEAKENING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. STY 17W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CHINA INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE 20/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHEAST ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24 AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-
WEST ORIENTED STR. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS
TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
STY 17W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY DUE TO THE ERC BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. STY
17W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BY TAU 54. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE STIPS GUIDANCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK. STY 17W SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.//
NNNN

[madness]

Those low pressure readings in the Philippines may be at higher elevations?
This sometimes happens in Taiwan, I have seen pressure readings of lower than 890HPa before

[SouthDadeFish]

Outer eyewall has formed:



We will probably see the inner eyewall get replaced by the larger outer eyewall over the next 24-48 hours.

[euro6208]

interesting situation...

[dexterlabio]

there are unusually strong gusts outside our house here in Manila. I wonder if this is in any way related to Usagi's outer spiral bands...

I actually don't hate it. The whole day it was dark but there were no rains. This is an ideal 'storm' weather, just to make people feel chilly and winds to make the laundry dry fast. But I know the situation farther north of Luzon is turning bad.