ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Rgv20]

The 850 wind chart from the euro does show an L off the LA coast at 120 hours. Not sure if that indicates minor development or not.

Nothing at the surface tho...Pressure at 1016mb.

[ronjon]

12z HWRF into Gulfport MS at 981 mb.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013081412-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ROCK]

12z HWRF into Gulfport MS at 981 mb.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013081412-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

yeah it was 975mb into STX last night....

[HouTXmetro]

That's a big shift for the HWRF

[PTrackerLA]

I wonder if a stronger system would still follow what the Euro is showing the voriticity doing. I certainly don't want to see a strong storm in my area but we're running 7"-8" below normal since June 1 so a soaking system would be welcome here and especially Texas.

[PTrackerLA]

Not surprised by that swing in the HWRF. It has been one of the most unreliable models the past few seasons IMO.

[gatorcane]

Here is where the 12Z ECMWF has 92L in 96 hours (approaching LA):

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM just out. Similar to ECMWF but a little faster into LA:

[ROCK]

Here is where the 12Z ECMWF has 92L in 96 hours (approaching LA):

that doesnt even have a closed isobar...lol....maybe a split of energy...

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

18Z NAM...in the WGOM / BOC at 60hrs 1008mb....trof is lifting out...does send some moisture up into the trof..around LA..

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[caneman]

18Z NAM...in the WGOM / BOC at 60hrs 1008mb....trof is lifting out...does send some moisture up into the trof..around LA..

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

It is of course the NAM though

[gatorcane]

Latest model plots:

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles are still battling themselves with 92L path...Still so many possibilities.


Saturday


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Sunday


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Monday


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[ROCK]

wow on Monday.... I am curious..

[tailgater]

Latest model plots:

Nice to see they all agree. We need to save this to see if any get it right. I like the OCD5

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is the Intensity Guidance. Most of these models show the intensity dropping off in the long-range and while intensity forecasts are extremely challenging, it still doesn't look like there will be ideal conditions in the GOM for 92L to really intensify. This could change, but right now it doesn't look like that is the case given the data at-hand which is good news for folks living along the Gulf.

[ROCK]

the 12Z GFS ensembles have ran but yet to see a map with updates....

[Rgv20]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is the Intensity Guidance. Most of these models show the intensity dropping off in the long-range and while intensity forecasts are extremely challenging, it still doesn't look like there will be ideal conditions in the GOM for 92L to really intensify. This could change, but right now it doesn't look like that is the case given the data at-hand which is good news for folks living along the Gulf.

[img]http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/7505/h3u.png

If it goes to the Northern Gulf landfall would probably be in less than 72hrs..

[chaser1]

The fact that the COC has yet to vertically develop, it will be a bit hard for the models to ideally latch on (though we're not talking about "too much" difference in general point of the system center. On the other hand, I'd have to go with a likely center being 50-100 miles east of where NHC is indicating at the moment. On an oft chance that this may be so, then this basically would mean that the system has a bit more time to consolodate over water, thus a more northward motion is what I'd assume to occur. Then, depending on timing, how much deepening occurs, and whether a "veer back" might occur approaching the N. Gulf coast in advance of a departing trough/building ridge...., that would seem to look like a Mobile, Al. to Pensacola, Fl. landfall (to me that is), could suddenly evolve into something more "Elena-like"....... interesting times!