WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 90kts.

11W UTOR 130810 1200 14.0N 128.2E WPAC 90 956

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (UTOR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.4N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.3N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.4N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.5N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.6N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 127.7E.
TYPHOON 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EASTWARD OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

Not sure this is going to Hong Kong. I dont see anything in the steering that will cause this to turn.Also, lets not forget that the models are known for turning these north far too qucikly in the SCS

[RobWESTPACWX]

Some light troughing in central china could cause that northernly turn, the image at the link is the JMA 300hpa analysis.

lhttp://www.jma.go.jp/jp/metcht/pdf/kosou/aupn30_12.pdf



Plus my overnight video update is in. #WARNING! I do bash PAGASA a little bit at the start.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1I72Vw1tT8[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA finally upgraded it... but still at lower intensity compared to other agencies...just like what they did with Bopha prior to initial landfall in mindanao


SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER SIX
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING: TYPHOON “LABUYO”
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 10 AUGUST 2013


TROPICAL STORM “LABUYO” HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON AS IT CONTINUES TO THREATEN LUZON.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Typhoon “LABUYO”
was estimated based on all available data at 470 km
East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.4°N, 127.8°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 120 kph near the center and
gustiness of 150 kph.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 19 kph.

Forecast Positions: Typhoon “LABUYO” is expected to be at 220 km
East of Baler, Aurora by tomorrow evening. By
Monday evening, it will be at 90 km West of Sinait,
Ilocos Sur and at 460 km Northwest of Laoag City
by Tuesday evening or outside the PAR

Public storm signal no 2 (Winds of 61-100 kph is expected in at least 24 hrs) :
Isabela,Aurora,Quirino, Polillo Is., CamarinesNorte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes

Public storm signal no. 1(Winds of 45-60 kph is expected within the next 36 hours) :
Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Ilocos ,Norte ,Apayao ,Abra , Kalinga, Ilocos Sur , Mountain Province, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Viscaya , Pangasinan, Tarlac , Nueva Ecija ,Zambales, Pampanga ,Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Quezon,Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao Islands and Metro Manila

['CaneFreak]

Good job. I agreed with most of your thoughts. We will just have to see about Hong Kong. There might be just enough of a weakness to allow a turn to the north. Anxious to see what the model guidance has to say this afternoon.

Some light troughing in central china could cause that northernly turn, the image at the link is the JMA 300hpa analysis.

lhttp://www.jma.go.jp/jp/metcht/pdf/kosou/aupn30_12.pdf



Plus my overnight video update is in. #WARNING! I do bash PAGASA a little bit at the start.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1I72Vw1tT8[/youtube]

[Dave C]

Looks to be feeling some easterly shear but the CDO is holding firm. You can see the clouds push further to the west with a sharp edge on the east side.

['CaneFreak]

Can anyone with better model resolution tell me how close the 12Z run gets to Hong Kong? It looked pretty close to me but I was looking at an image with poor resolution. Thanks.

[phwxenthusiast]

Virac Radar says hi to Utor... looks like the eye is starting to be picked up by the site... so glad PAGASA has put this radar site online (even though it's not part of the NOAH Radar Network just yet)...



now if only they'd make Aurora Radar online as well; that'd be so cool as it'll be close to the landfall point currently being forecast...

[vrif]

Can anyone with better model resolution tell me how close the 12Z run gets to Hong Kong? It looked pretty close to me but I was looking at an image with poor resolution. Thanks.

Here is the last 4 GFS track.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0810 1452Z
Finally a useful OSCAT pass.

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1311 UTOR (1311)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 14.2N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 16.2N 123.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 121800UTC 18.7N 118.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 131800UTC 20.4N 114.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

[vrif]

12Z Model Track

[phwxenthusiast]

latest radar out of Virac... looks like there's a severe blindspot to the north so it's not showing the full extent of those rain bands... i'm just hoping this radar can show us the landfall later tonight...

[dexterlabio]

I was about to comment on the moderate easterly shear affecting Utor last night but I was so sleepy. Though right now the shear around the area has relaxed further...

Also I was suspicious about that "dark spot" over the large CDO so I checked the latest microwave imagery and this is what I got...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Pat do you have the link for accessing Virac radar?

Many thanks!

[ManilaTC]

Here is the link James.

The track is eerily similar to 1995 Angela's. It will all depend on the ridge north of the Typhoon.
It has been strong season-long...

What worries me is that because of the FIBA-Asia Basketball tournament, the Filipinos will have their guards down...I do hope Pinoys do take heed...

Manila is still under the gun.

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/index.php/weather/radar-image

[dexterlabio]

Here is the link James.

The track is eerily similar to 1995 Angela's. It will all depend on the ridge north of the Typhoon.
It has been strong season-long...

What worries me is that because of the FIBA-Asia Basketball tournament, the Filipinos will have their guards down...I do hope Pinoys do take heed...

Manila is still under the gun.

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/index.php/weather/radar-image

We were cheering so loud at the Mall of Asia Arena last night and it was worth it. But I was also thinking the same. . You know, when something really good has happened but there's something nasty that awaits after... I do hope everyone is even aware of this storm. It's a sunny morning here in Manila. No ones seems to bother check the latest weather report, and the media's highlight is RP team's win against South Korea in FIBA Asian championship.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to cat 3 (100kts)

11W UTOR 130811 0000 14.4N 125.9E WPAC 100 948

[ManilaTC]

Here is the link James.

The track is eerily similar to 1995 Angela's. It will all depend on the ridge north of the Typhoon.
It has been strong season-long...

What worries me is that because of the FIBA-Asia Basketball tournament, the Filipinos will have their guards down...I do hope Pinoys do take heed...

Manila is still under the gun.

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/index.php/weather/radar-image

We were cheering so loud at the Mall of Asia Arena last night and it was worth it. But I was also thinking the same. . You know, when something really good has happened but there's something nasty that awaits after... I do hope everyone is even aware of this storm. It's a sunny morning here in Manila. No ones seems to bother check the latest weather report, and the media's highlight is RP team's win against South Korea in FIBA Asian championship.

Recipe for disaster indeed.