ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Gustywind · #162 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:38 am

Up to 40%

8AM TWO

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

#163 Postby **abajan** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:42 am

Gustywind wrote:Up to 40%

8AM TWO ...

Wasn't it already up to 40% at 2 AM?

Gustywind · #164 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:49 am

abajan wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Up to 40%

8AM TWO ...
Wasn't it already up to 40% at 2 AM?

You're right :oops:

I missed the last one from 2AM :lol:

so it stays at 40% Abajan.

beoumont · #165 Postby **beoumont** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:55 am

fci wrote:Interesting to me that SST's are marginal at this time of the year.
Isn't that a bit unusual?

It appears around normal out there for this time of year according to Reynolds analysis and anomaly maps for July 20th:

Gustywind · #166 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:01 am

Atlantic Tropical Disturbance

July 23, 2013; 6:03 AM

An area of low pressure is trying to get organized near the Cape Verde Islands.

:rarrow:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

#167 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:10 am

Hey folks,

Please remember not to directly embed images from other sites unless you've copied the image to an image hosting site.

Embedding an image from tropicaltidbits, for example, will cost TT bandwidth as the image has to be served up for everyone who simply views this thread. This is a primary reason many weather related sites end up having to charge a fee in order to restrict bandwidth usage.

#168 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:12 am

Good morning. 98L continues to gradually organize this mornng. Certainly has the appearance on satellite imagery of already being a TD. I think we should see it declared a TD or possibly a TS by tomorrow morning by NHC.

This system will be an interesting one to track. Lots of varaiables, but for me the biggest factor down the road will be if the Ridge will re-establish itself, especially after we look beyond the 7-day mark from now.

#169 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:17 am

northjaxpro wrote:Good morning. 98L continues to gradually organize this mornng. Certainly has the appearance on satellite imagery of already being a TD. I think we should see it declared a TD or possibly a TS by tomorrow morning by NHC.

This system will be an interesting one to track. Lots of varaiables, but for me the biggest factor down the road will be if the Ridge will re-establish itself, especially after we look beyond the 7-day mark from now.

Also,even if this doesn't develop, it could be a good indicator in terms of how the steering will be in August/September.

#170 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:20 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013072312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO

Gustywind · #171 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:21 am

Lastest from SSD...

North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1145 UTC 12.3N 22.7W T1.0/1.0 98L
23/0545 UTC 12.2N 22.7W T1.0/1.0 98L
22/2345 UTC 12.2N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 98L
22/1745 UTC 12.4N 21.0W TOO WEAK 98L

#172 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:22 am

527
WHXX01 KWBC 231214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC TUE JUL 23 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20130723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130723 1200 130724 0000 130724 1200 130725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 22.7W 13.0N 25.5W 14.5N 29.1W 16.0N 33.1W
BAMD 12.2N 22.7W 12.9N 25.6W 13.9N 28.6W 15.1N 31.5W
BAMM 12.2N 22.7W 13.2N 25.5W 14.5N 28.7W 16.0N 32.3W
LBAR 12.2N 22.7W 12.9N 25.4W 14.1N 28.6W 15.5N 31.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130725 1200 130726 1200 130727 1200 130728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 37.5W 18.9N 46.5W 20.7N 55.0W 22.9N 61.9W
BAMD 16.2N 34.6W 17.8N 41.0W 18.4N 46.1W 18.0N 49.7W
BAMM 17.3N 36.2W 19.2N 43.8W 20.2N 50.8W 21.1N 56.9W
LBAR 16.7N 35.1W 17.8N 41.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 22.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 20.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 17.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Gustywind · #173 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:24 am

Latest from NRL:
:rarrow:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... bw&PROD=ir

20130723.1145.98L INVEST.25kts-1010mb-123N-218W.

#174 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:28 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013072312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO

It keeps tracking westward on a 270 degree heading at 10kts.

#175 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:29 am

Looks a little better to me in the 3 to 5 day range in terms of upper level wind shear. However, still worried about the forward speed being an issue.

floridasun78 · #176 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:31 am

dont show weakening on last ship report SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS

#177 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:34 am

Intensity now up slightly at 120 compared to going down in previous runs... For now to many models predicting toast for me to think otherwise

floridasun78 · #178 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:34 am

SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS ship dont show wreaking as did on monday
DSHP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS

#179 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:36 am

By looking at the latest best track data you can see that 98L slowed down a little bit (0.9 degrees in the last 6 hrs compared to 1.4-1.6 deg/6hrs yesterday). If this trend continues and the forward motion stays in the 10 knot-range, consolidation can occur much faster than with Chantal.

Gustywind · #180 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:37 am

Tracking Info For Invest 98L

:rarrow:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 07/22/13 12.7N 17.1W 20 1010 Invest
18 GMT 07/22/13 12.2N 18.9W 25 1009 Invest
18 GMT 07/22/13 12.2N 18.9W 25 1009 Invest
00 GMT 07/23/13 12.3N 21.3W 25 1010 Invest
06 GMT 07/23/13 12.3N 21.8W 25 1010 Invest
12 GMT 07/23/13 12.2N 22.7W 25 1009 Invest

ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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