WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

if surge was the biggest threat, why are the majority of the deaths in nearly every TC ecept for the BOB caused by flooding rains. This also applies to the Philippines. The majority of TC deaths there in the last 50 years are rain flooding.

Saying surge is the greatest threat is wrong.

Also, compare Joplin to Gulfport and you'll have an even different answer. Of course you run from the surge. However, don't place yourself as a sitting duck in front of 235 mph winds either! Saying otherwise is extremely DANGEROUS advice

[Alyono]

The UN figure is not accurate. They released a retraction. It referred to evacuation centers

[somethingfunny]

if surge was the biggest threat, why are the majority of the deaths in nearly every TC ecept for the BOB caused by flooding rains. This also applies to the Philippines. The majority of TC deaths there in the last 50 years are rain flooding.

Saying surge is the greatest threat is wrong.

Also, compare Joplin to Gulfport and you'll have an even different answer. Of course you run from the surge. However, don't place yourself as a sitting duck in front of 235 mph winds either! Saying otherwise is extremely DANGEROUS advice

You have to look at each situation individually. Haiyan was fast-moving so flash flooding and mudslides were never the main threat. It came into a funnel-shaped bay with a low-lying city at its' right-front apex. That was the main threat. Guiuan (struck directly by peak-intensity winds) seems to have dozens of fatalities, whereas Tacloban (struck by a bathymetrically-magnified storm surge) seems to have thousands of fatalities. Your advice is that evacuating to higher elevation is pointless because the winds will just kill you there anyway - but that is NOT the case.

The final death toll numbers will be interesting from a macabre horse-race standpoint, the rankings of the deadliest typhoons and disasters ever, but ultimately as long as it's understood that surge caused exponentially more deaths than wind, that is the key metric for emergency managers in the future.

[Alyono]

if surge was the biggest threat, why are the majority of the deaths in nearly every TC ecept for the BOB caused by flooding rains. This also applies to the Philippines. The majority of TC deaths there in the last 50 years are rain flooding.

Saying surge is the greatest threat is wrong.

Also, compare Joplin to Gulfport and you'll have an even different answer. Of course you run from the surge. However, don't place yourself as a sitting duck in front of 235 mph winds either! Saying otherwise is extremely DANGEROUS advice

You have to look at each situation individually. Haiyan was fast-moving so flash flooding and mudslides were never the main threat. It came into a funnel-shaped bay with a low-lying city at its' right-front apex. That was the main threat. Guiuan (struck directly by peak-intensity winds) seems to have dozens of fatalities, whereas Tacloban (struck by a bathymetrically-magnified storm surge) seems to have thousands of fatalities. Your advice is that evacuating to higher elevation is pointless because the winds will just kill you there anyway - but that is NOT the case.

The final death toll numbers will be interesting from a macabre horse-race standpoint, the rankings of the deadliest typhoons and disasters ever, but ultimately as long as it's understood that surge caused exponentially more deaths than wind, that is the key metric for emergency managers in the future.

The best advice was get out of the path entirely! At least out of the eyewall.

Perhaps what is needed in these areas is like what the Bangladesh gov't provides, re-enforced concrete structures designed to survive rediculous winds. These would need to be constructed like the tornado safe rooms are of course.

[stormkite]

Storm Surge: This is basically a dome or "mound" of water caused by the intense low pressure of a tropical cyclone coupled with the driving-force of the winds "pushing" the water along (mass transport). In deep water, the storm surge in intense tropical cyclones is only a foot or two high, caused by the low pressure, but contains a fast moving surface current called MASS TRANSPORT that flows with the storm winds (more enhanced to the right side of the storm core in the northern hemisphere). As this flow (and "mound") of water comes ashore, it interacts with the coastline, tides, and undersea topography and can be over 20 feet high in strong hurricanes! Storm surge rises quickly with the onset of the storm core and often floods coastal areas, threatening life by drowning, damaging beachfront property, marinas, even the coastline itself. Storm surge is most severe in and to the right (northern hemisphere) where the storm center crosses a coast. 90% of hurricane victims die from drowning in floods caused by the storm surge






A hurricane (or typhoon) can have winds near or exceeding that of the core region of a significant tornado. A hurricane (or typhoon) chaser must go THROUGH those dangerous winds. Hurricanes and typhoons CANNOT be observed from a distance. An 80-MPH wind can easily knock you down. 120-MPH-plus winds can lift you clear off your feet and carry you through the air!


Effects of a category-five hurricane can be incredible and frightening. In the 1935 "Labor Day" hurricane, winds near 200-MPH turned a beach into a sandblast that literally ripped the skin off some of the victims who did not already perish in the 20 foot storm surge. Some were recovered with no clothes, no skin, and only their shoes and belts on them! Hurricane "Camille" in 1969 created a sandblast effect too, so violent that sand actually sparked when it hit metal poles! Hurricane "Andrew" in 1992 actually pulverized concrete from the brute force of its winds and rain.

Alyono (The best advice was get out of the path entirely) . Spot on



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[tdp]

[cheezyWXguy]

Storm Surge: This is basically a dome or "mound" of water caused by the intense low pressure of a tropical cyclone coupled with the driving-force of the winds "pushing" the water along (mass transport). In deep water, the storm surge in intense tropical cyclones is only a foot or two high, caused by the low pressure, but contains a fast moving surface current called MASS TRANSPORT that flows with the storm winds (more enhanced to the right side of the storm core in the northern hemisphere). As this flow (and "mound") of water comes ashore, it interacts with the coastline, tides, and undersea topography and can be over 20 feet high in strong hurricanes! Storm surge rises quickly with the onset of the storm core and often floods coastal areas, threatening life by drowning, damaging beachfront property, marinas, even the coastline itself. Storm surge is most severe in and to the right (northern hemisphere) where the storm center crosses a coast. 90% of hurricane victims die from drowning in floods caused by the storm surge






A hurricane (or typhoon) can have winds near or exceeding that of the core region of a significant tornado. A hurricane (or typhoon) chaser must go THROUGH those dangerous winds. Hurricanes and typhoons CANNOT be observed from a distance. An 80-MPH wind can easily knock you down. 120-MPH-plus winds can lift you clear off your feet and carry you through the air!


Effects of a category-five hurricane can be incredible and frightening. In the 1935 "Labor Day" hurricane, winds near 200-MPH turned a beach into a sandblast that literally ripped the skin off some of the victims who did not already perish in the 20 foot storm surge. Some were recovered with no clothes, no skin, and only their shoes and belts on them! Hurricane "Camille" in 1969 created a sandblast effect too, so violent that sand actually sparked when it hit metal poles! Hurricane "Andrew" in 1992 actually pulverized concrete from the brute force of its winds and rain.

Alyono (The best advice was get out of the path entirely) . Spot on



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[tdp]

Great post, your facts about the cat5 hurricanes are very interesting. I only have one issue, and thats with your diagram of category vs. storm surge. While a category 5 hurricane would likely generate more storm surge than a category 1 of the same size, the correlation of wind to surge is rather loose. It comes down to a few more factors than that, some of which you did mention above (coastline, tides, undersea topography, etc). But especially, size of the storm is a huge factor as well, which, along with the previous factors, is why we saw such large storm surges with relatively "weak" storms like Ike or Sandy.

[tolakram]

The number of people in the Philippines confirmed dead from Typhoon Haiyan now stands at 3,621, officials say.

UN and local agencies have issued conflicting tolls, and the final figure is likely to rise still higher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24954011

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters Friday discussion one week after Super Typhoon Haiyan struck the Central Phillippines.

A full week after one of the strongest tropical cyclones in world history devastated the Philippines, the full extent of the death and destruction wrought by Super Typhoon Haiyan is still not fully known, nor do we have actual ground measurements of the storm's peak winds and lowest pressure. The Philippines ‪National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council‬ estimates 3432 people were killed, and the U.N. puts this number at 4,460. This makes Haiyan the 2nd deadliest Philippines tropical cyclone in history, behind Tropical Storm Thelma of 1991, which killed 5081 - 8165 people. Damage is estimated at $12 - $15 billion, or about 5% of the Philippines' GDP.

What was Haiyan's lowest pressure?

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) estimated that Haiyan's central pressure was 895 mb at landfall, which would make it the 12th strongest tropical cyclone in world history (by pressure.) We now have pressure measurements from Haiyan's second landfall in Tacloban, where a group of storm chasers deployed two high-quality Kestrel pressure instruments in the Hotel Alejandro, in the heart of the Downtown district (11.2414N 125.0036E.) This location was about eighteen miles north of the center of the eye, and did not receive the typhoon's strongest winds, which probably occurred about two miles to the south, judging by the zoomed-in radar image from landfall (Figure 3.) Josh Morgerman of iCyclone.com was kind enough to send me plots of the data recorded from their instruments. Device 1 measured a minimum pressure of 960.8 mb at 7:12 am, and their Device 2 measured 960.3 mb at 7:20 am. Josh talked to a source at the Tacloban Airport, located about 1 mile farther to the south, who said that the airport measured 955.6 mb at 7:15 am, before power was lost. These readings suggest that Haiyan had a pressure gradient of about 4 mb per mile. If we assume the airport was 17 miles north of the center of the eye, and there was a 4 mb/mile pressure gradient, Haiyan could have had an 888 mb central pressure. An email I received from NHC hurricane specialist Dr. Jack Beven documented several cases of Category 5 tropical cyclones with extreme pressure gradients:

Hurricane Andrew, 1992 (South Florida): 60 mb in 14 miles (4.3 mb/mile)
Hurricane Wilma, 2005 (in Caribbean): 94 mb in 14 miles (6.7 mb/mile)
Super Typhoon Megi, 2010 (east of Philippines): 60 mb in 14 miles (4.6 mb/mile)
September 1933 hurricane (ship measurement): 45 mb in 6 miles (7.5 mb/mile)
Hurricane Felix, 2007 (in Caribbean): 63 mb in 14 miles (4.5 mb/mile)

So, it is certainly possible that Haiyan had a pressure below 900 mb, but we will probably never know for certain.


How strong were Haiyan's winds at initial landfall in Guiuan?

Haiyan's strongest winds occurred on the south shore of Samar Island and the city of Guiuan (population 47,000), where the super typhoon initially made landfall with 1-minute average winds estimated at 195 mph. This estimate came from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and was based on satellite measurements. We have no ground level or hurricane hunter measurements to verify this estimate. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which uses their own techniques to estimate typhoon strength via satellite imagery, put Haiyan's peak strength at 125 knots (145 mph), using a 10-minute averaging time for wind speeds. The averaging time used by JTWC and NHC is 1-minute, resulting in a higher wind estimate than the 10-minute average winds used by JMA and PAGASA in their advisories. To convert from 10-minute averaged winds to 1-minute average, one conversion factor that is commonly used is to multiply by 1.14--though lower conversion factors are sometimes used. JMA satellite strength estimates are consistently much lower than those from JTWC for high-end Category 5 strength typhoons; JTWC estimates are the ones most commonly used by the hurricane research community. A searchable database going back to 1976 of the JMA typhoon information available at Digital Typhoon reveals that Haiyan is tied for second place as the strongest typhoon that JMA has rated, and was the strongest landfalling typhoon, when measured by wind speed. The only typhoon they rated as stronger was Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, but that storm weakened to Category 1 strength before making landfall in Japan.


Typhoon and hurricane maximum wind speed estimates are only valid for over water exposure, and winds over land are typically reduced by about 15%, due to friction. This would put Haiyan's winds at 165 mph over land areas on the south shore of Samar Island. This is equivalent to a high end EF-3 tornado. Forty minutes before landfall, the airport in Guiuan reported sustained 10-minute average winds of 96 mph, with a pressure of 977 mb, before contact was lost. damage photos of Guiuan show at least EF-2 scale damage (111 - 135 mph winds): Roofs torn off well-constructed houses; foundations of frame homes shifted; mobile homes completely destroyed; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles generated; cars lifted off ground. The mayor of the city had his car lifted off the ground and slammed into a building, which is consistent with at least EF-2 damage. There is possible EF-3 damage (136-165 mph winds) in the Guiuan damage photos, with the 400-year-old stone Church of the Immaculate Conception collapsed, and a bus toppled. EF-3 damage is defined as: Entire stories of well-constructed houses destroyed; severe damage to large buildings such as shopping malls; trains overturned; trees debarked; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance. A detailed damage survey would be need to determine if EF-3 winds really did occur in Guiuan.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2580

[Alyono]

One major issue with Masters analysis is that I believe many of the structures in Guiuan were made of concrete and not wood as is the case in tornado alley. Thus, he has to use different DIs to come up with an EF rating. It's why an F scale analysis indicated lower winds in Andrew than were recorded. Again due to better construction methods (concrete vs wood)

[Alyono]

Had a chance to relook at some of the Megi flight level data as it was posted to the T storms list today. It really helps in determining the peak winds in Haiyan

120030 1744N 12506E 6968 02855 //// +093 //// 269097 099 092 012 01
120100 1746N 12506E 6967 02818 //// +093 //// 270105 108 099 006 01
120130 1748N 12506E 6966 02780 9584 +104 //// 271114 117 105 000 05
120200 1749N 12506E 6968 02725 9558 +107 //// 272129 134 113 002 05
120230 1750N 12506E 6962 02665 //// +085 //// 273141 144 123 013 01
120300 1751N 12506E 6961 02583 //// +089 //// 272147 151 133 038 01
120330 1753N 12506E 6948 02503 //// +097 //// 268146 153 147 033 05
120400 1754N 12506E 7003 02318 //// +127 //// 269121 130 163 004 05
120430 1756N 12506E 6961 02277 9022 +168 +167 271088 102 149 007 03
120500 1757N 12505E 6966 02219 8972 +171 +157 278040 050 050 005 03
120530 1759N 12506E 6967 02201 8961 +159 //// 251018 024 038 005 05
120600 1801N 12505E 6967 02188 8945 +164 //// 155005 010 036 004 05
120630 1803N 12504E 6970 02183 8941 +168 +162 070024 034 040 004 00
120700 1804N 12503E 6965 02206 8949 +180 +153 061045 051 048 004 00
120730 1805N 12502E 6961 02247 8978 +184 +149 055069 083 071 003 03
120800 1806N 12500E 6966 02284 9036 +167 +155 050105 116 148 002 03
120830 1807N 12458E 6953 02400 //// +116 //// 044157 178 173 008 05
120900 1808N 12456E 7019 02454 //// +077 //// 041186 192 159 034 05
120930 1808N 12455E 6940 02641 //// +078 //// 038170 174 136 023 05
121000 1809N 12454E 6977 02666 //// +079 //// 040156 161 126 017 01

easily shows the JT BT of 165 KT is wrong. Should have been set to 175 KT using either the 90 percent rule or the SFMR (ignore the auto flagging, that wind is valid, just look at the pattern, nothing is out of place)

Now, with the pressure at Guiuan being around the 890 that Megi had (the data justifies about 890 mb due to the high surface winds in the eye), the two storms apparently were very similar in terms of pressure. To determine the max winds, one would likely need to examine the gradient between the storm and the environment. Given the fast forward speed of Haiyan, that would likely add some wind to the north side of the circulation, meaning winds would almost certainly be greater than the 175 KT in Megi. In addition, the fast forward speed likely meant stronger ridging and a stronger pressure gradient.

Taking this into consideration, it is highly likely that the JT estimate of 170 KT is quite a bit low. I would contend that sustained winds at Guiuan landfall were as high as 185 KT or 210 mph. This would explain some of the reports on the T storms list that concrete buildings were leveled in Guiuan

[stormkite]

To "assume” the distance with numeral data into any calculation will only lead to inherently flawed results.

[brunota2003]

What is the T storms list? And reports?

[Alyono]

What is the T storms list? And reports?

The T storms list is an e-mail list where many tropical meteorologists exchange ideas, etc

[euro6208]

Had a chance to relook at some of the Megi flight level data as it was posted to the T storms list today. It really helps in determining the peak winds in Haiyan

120030 1744N 12506E 6968 02855 //// +093 //// 269097 099 092 012 01
120100 1746N 12506E 6967 02818 //// +093 //// 270105 108 099 006 01
120130 1748N 12506E 6966 02780 9584 +104 //// 271114 117 105 000 05
120200 1749N 12506E 6968 02725 9558 +107 //// 272129 134 113 002 05
120230 1750N 12506E 6962 02665 //// +085 //// 273141 144 123 013 01
120300 1751N 12506E 6961 02583 //// +089 //// 272147 151 133 038 01
120330 1753N 12506E 6948 02503 //// +097 //// 268146 153 147 033 05
120400 1754N 12506E 7003 02318 //// +127 //// 269121 130 163 004 05
120430 1756N 12506E 6961 02277 9022 +168 +167 271088 102 149 007 03
120500 1757N 12505E 6966 02219 8972 +171 +157 278040 050 050 005 03
120530 1759N 12506E 6967 02201 8961 +159 //// 251018 024 038 005 05
120600 1801N 12505E 6967 02188 8945 +164 //// 155005 010 036 004 05
120630 1803N 12504E 6970 02183 8941 +168 +162 070024 034 040 004 00
120700 1804N 12503E 6965 02206 8949 +180 +153 061045 051 048 004 00
120730 1805N 12502E 6961 02247 8978 +184 +149 055069 083 071 003 03
120800 1806N 12500E 6966 02284 9036 +167 +155 050105 116 148 002 03
120830 1807N 12458E 6953 02400 //// +116 //// 044157 178 173 008 05
120900 1808N 12456E 7019 02454 //// +077 //// 041186 192 159 034 05
120930 1808N 12455E 6940 02641 //// +078 //// 038170 174 136 023 05
121000 1809N 12454E 6977 02666 //// +079 //// 040156 161 126 017 01

easily shows the JT BT of 165 KT is wrong. Should have been set to 175 KT using either the 90 percent rule or the SFMR (ignore the auto flagging, that wind is valid, just look at the pattern, nothing is out of place)

thanks for posting this...this should put to rest some members who call me crazy and just hyping up when i said megi had winds of 175 knots just because JTWC had it lower...

clearly haiyan is stronger than megi, as noted in the very dark grey tops, that sustained winds could have been somewhere between 185 to 200 knots...

[Alyono]

Had a chance to relook at some of the Megi flight level data as it was posted to the T storms list today. It really helps in determining the peak winds in Haiyan

120030 1744N 12506E 6968 02855 //// +093 //// 269097 099 092 012 01
120100 1746N 12506E 6967 02818 //// +093 //// 270105 108 099 006 01
120130 1748N 12506E 6966 02780 9584 +104 //// 271114 117 105 000 05
120200 1749N 12506E 6968 02725 9558 +107 //// 272129 134 113 002 05
120230 1750N 12506E 6962 02665 //// +085 //// 273141 144 123 013 01
120300 1751N 12506E 6961 02583 //// +089 //// 272147 151 133 038 01
120330 1753N 12506E 6948 02503 //// +097 //// 268146 153 147 033 05
120400 1754N 12506E 7003 02318 //// +127 //// 269121 130 163 004 05
120430 1756N 12506E 6961 02277 9022 +168 +167 271088 102 149 007 03
120500 1757N 12505E 6966 02219 8972 +171 +157 278040 050 050 005 03
120530 1759N 12506E 6967 02201 8961 +159 //// 251018 024 038 005 05
120600 1801N 12505E 6967 02188 8945 +164 //// 155005 010 036 004 05
120630 1803N 12504E 6970 02183 8941 +168 +162 070024 034 040 004 00
120700 1804N 12503E 6965 02206 8949 +180 +153 061045 051 048 004 00
120730 1805N 12502E 6961 02247 8978 +184 +149 055069 083 071 003 03
120800 1806N 12500E 6966 02284 9036 +167 +155 050105 116 148 002 03
120830 1807N 12458E 6953 02400 //// +116 //// 044157 178 173 008 05
120900 1808N 12456E 7019 02454 //// +077 //// 041186 192 159 034 05
120930 1808N 12455E 6940 02641 //// +078 //// 038170 174 136 023 05
121000 1809N 12454E 6977 02666 //// +079 //// 040156 161 126 017 01

easily shows the JT BT of 165 KT is wrong. Should have been set to 175 KT using either the 90 percent rule or the SFMR (ignore the auto flagging, that wind is valid, just look at the pattern, nothing is out of place)

thanks for posting this...this should put to rest some members who call me crazy and just hyping up when i said megi had winds of 175 knots just because JTWC had it lower...

clearly haiyan is stronger than megi, as noted in the very dark grey tops, that sustained winds could have been somewhere between 185 to 200 knots...

lets not go overboard with 200 KT winds. I also threw out the Dvorak estimates due to the margin of error they have and only focused on comparing the two storms from a translational speed and gradient sense

[Cyclenall]

I can't believe JB said this:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7 Nov
@HeidiCullen
Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water

I can't believe anything JB says.

clearly haiyan is stronger than megi, as noted in the very dark grey tops, that sustained winds could have been somewhere between 185 to 200 knots...

Every time you make a new estimate, it jumps 15 knots (the high end of the range). If you accept that 200 knots is within the realm of possibility for Haiyan, than its suggested that Haiyan could have been a category 7 typhoon if the scale kept going at equal intervals. I can believe it for gusts but not sustained. Solid concrete, steel reinforced buildings should be swept clean off the ground in conditions like that.

Also I hear occasionally this idea that there is not CAT6+ or EF6+ because the damage caused from one rung below it would look the same as its "complete destruction". Well I have to disagree because for instance there are structures built that can withstand EF5 winds (to 318 mph) like a huge hospital in a city or skyscraper would still be there in most cases. In Joplin the hospital was destroyed but the structure was intact, moved off its foundation by some inches. In the next category, it should be obliterated. Just because you can go an entire lifetime without seeing it doesn't mean it shouldn't be there.

This would explain some of the reports on the T storms list that concrete buildings were leveled in Guiuan.

I want to see photos of this, that would be insane.

CNN spent 31 minutes on Haiyan at 5:00 pm Monday, very impressive. What bothers me is the pressure estimate from the official data that is based off satellites is 895 mb which we all know is ridiculous. It was at least 874 mb or lower...likely lower than Tip. Its in the Wpac and it wasn't a small typhoon.

Usually its the rain from TC's that cause the most deaths but if you have a 175+ knot typhoon making landfall, you will die if not in a proper position. The scope of CAT5 level winds are far higher in something like this than anything else, normally you would have a tiny speck of CAT5 winds in a CAT5 but I think Haiyan had a much more uniform wind profile of insane winds. Like the southern eyewall probably had 140+ knot winds instead of 125 knot winds etc. Also storm surge in certain powerful large tropical cyclones that overtop buildings are always extremely deadly and nearly impossible to survive so a death toll over 4,000 is no surprise because that is what usually drives up the numbers past 4 digits.

[Alyono]

I can't believe JB said this:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7 Nov
@HeidiCullen
Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water

I can't believe anything JB says.

clearly haiyan is stronger than megi, as noted in the very dark grey tops, that sustained winds could have been somewhere between 185 to 200 knots...

Every time you make a new estimate, it jumps 15 knots (the high end of the range). If you accept that 200 knots is within the realm of possibility for Haiyan, than its suggested that Haiyan could have been a category 7 typhoon if the scale kept going at equal intervals. I can believe it for gusts but not sustained. Solid concrete, steel reinforced buildings should be swept clean off the ground in conditions like that.

Also I hear occasionally this idea that there is not CAT6+ or EF6+ because the damage caused from one rung below it would look the same as its "complete destruction". Well I have to disagree because for instance there are structures built that can withstand EF5 winds (to 318 mph) like a huge hospital in a city or skyscraper would still be there in most cases. In Joplin the hospital was destroyed but the structure was intact, moved off its foundation by some inches. In the next category, it should be obliterated. Just because you can go an entire lifetime without seeing it doesn't mean it shouldn't be there.

This would explain some of the reports on the T storms list that concrete buildings were leveled in Guiuan.

I want to see photos of this, that would be insane.

CNN spent 31 minutes on Haiyan at 5:00 pm Monday, very impressive. What bothers me is the pressure estimate from the official data that is based off satellites is 895 mb which we all know is ridiculous. It was at least 874 mb or lower...likely lower than Tip. Its in the Wpac and it wasn't a small typhoon.

Usually its the rain from TC's that cause the most deaths but if you have a 175+ knot typhoon making landfall, you will die if not in a proper position. The scope of CAT5 level winds are far higher in something like this than anything else, normally you would have a tiny speck of CAT5 winds in a CAT5 but I think Haiyan had a much more uniform wind profile of insane winds. Like the southern eyewall probably had 140+ knot winds instead of 125 knot winds etc. Also storm surge in certain powerful large tropical cyclones that overtop buildings are always extremely deadly and nearly impossible to survive so a death toll over 4,000 is no surprise because that is what usually drives up the numbers past 4 digits.

All available evidence indicates that the pressure was well higher than was Tip. Probably by as much as 15-20 mb

[stormkite]

Usually its the rain from TC's that cause the most deaths but if you have a 175+ knot typhoon making landfall, you will die if not in a proper position. The scope of CAT5 level winds are far higher in something like this than anything else, normally you would have a tiny speck of CAT5 winds in a CAT5 but I think Haiyan had a much more uniform wind profile of insane winds. Like the southern eyewall probably had 140+ knot winds instead of 125 knot winds etc. Also storm surge in certain powerful large tropical cyclones that overtop buildings are always extremely deadly and nearly impossible to survive so a death toll over 4,000 is no surprise because that is what usually drives up the numbers past 4 digits.

he highest storm surge ever recorded in the United States was 34 feet associated with the right side of Hurricane Katrina along the Mississippi Coastline (near Biloxi and Gulfport) in August 2005. The largest storm surge ever seen on earth was 43 feet at Bathhurst Bay in Australia from an 1899 cyclone. The deadliest storm surge was a surge of over 20 feet from the Bhola cyclone in Bangladesh's Bay of Bengal back in 1970 that killed over a half million people.


euro6208 At best you could add the 18 knots the reported forward speed ? to the right side of the typhoon sustained wind speed.

[HurricaneBill]

At this point, there are only two natural disasters in the Philippines deadlier than Super Typhoon Haiyan:

1976 Moro Gulf earthquake and tsunami
1991 Tropical Storm Thelma (Uring)

Both killed between 5,000-8,000 people.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess Haiyan may beat those two in terms of death toll. But I hope that it won't reach 10,000-a very high estimate.

Haiyan-Yolanda also has a chance to surpass Bopha-Pablo in terms of damages, over $1 billion!