WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[blp]

Did the storm qualify as an annular storm. The pic below sure does look like one.

[hurricanes1234]

WHAT THE...??? Just look at that otherworldly symmetry and perfectly round and clear eye!!!

The only thing that didn't make this storm annular was the fact that strong banding was still present on the western quadrant!

[Alyono]

not even close to annular

rainbands were very present

[RL3AO]

This had a very pronounced band feature on the western side for most of its life as a strong typhoon.

[blp]

Thanks for the clarification I had missed the rain band characteristic on the west side. I was focused on the circular appearance.

I must say though that is the definition of a buzz saw looking storm. Will end up on quite a few avatars.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thanks for the clarification I had missed the rain band characteristic on the west side. I was focused on the circular appearance.

I must say though that is the definition of a buzz saw looking storm. Will end up on quite a few avatars.

Even still, this thing wasn't even close to annular. It seems that every time we get an unusually strong tropical cyclone, people want to throw the 'A' word around. Saw it with Katrina and so many others and just like then, it's not true. Annular hurricanes are characterized by a near total lack of outer bands, as well as a rather disproportionately large eye. Haiyan had neither of these. They are also much less subject to ERC's, which Haiyan had just recently completed before reaching its peak. Im sure there are other characteristics as well that I've failed to mention, but the point is that these types of hurricanes are very rare. If you want examples, see Hurricane Isabel '03, Hurricane Daniel '06 and Typhoon Nester '97.

[blp]

Thanks for the clarification I had missed the rain band characteristic on the west side. I was focused on the circular appearance.

I must say though that is the definition of a buzz saw looking storm. Will end up on quite a few avatars.

Even still, this thing wasn't even close to annular. It seems that every time we get an unusually strong tropical cyclone, people want to throw the 'A' word around. Saw it with Katrina and so many others and just like then, it's not true. Annular hurricanes are characterized by a near total lack of outer bands, as well as a rather disproportionately large eye. Haiyan had neither of these. They are also much less subject to ERC's, which Haiyan had just recently completed before reaching its peak. Im sure there are other characteristics as well that I've failed to mention, but the point is that these types of hurricanes are very rare. If you want examples, see Hurricane Isabel '03, Hurricane Daniel '06 and Typhoon Nester '97.

For the record, I have never mentioned the word annular since I joined in 2004. So I just want to clarify to you so that you don't bunch me in with any group that as you say throw the "A" word around. With that said, I am for the insight as I am always trying to learn.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thanks for the clarification I had missed the rain band characteristic on the west side. I was focused on the circular appearance.

I must say though that is the definition of a buzz saw looking storm. Will end up on quite a few avatars.

Even still, this thing wasn't even close to annular. It seems that every time we get an unusually strong tropical cyclone, people want to throw the 'A' word around. Saw it with Katrina and so many others and just like then, it's not true. Annular hurricanes are characterized by a near total lack of outer bands, as well as a rather disproportionately large eye. Haiyan had neither of these. They are also much less subject to ERC's, which Haiyan had just recently completed before reaching its peak. Im sure there are other characteristics as well that I've failed to mention, but the point is that these types of hurricanes are very rare. If you want examples, see Hurricane Isabel '03, Hurricane Daniel '06 and Typhoon Nester '97.

For the record, I have never mentioned the word annular since I joined in 2004. So I just want to clarify to you so that you don't bunch me in with any group that as you say throw the "A" word around. With that said, I am for the insight as I am always trying to learn.

Of course. I didn't mean to make it sound like I was calling you out, I just wanted to make my point clear. It wouldn't be the first time that when we're tracking an intense tropical cyclone with a symmetrical core, the question comes up of whether the storm is annular or not. It's just important to acknowledge that symmetrical cores are characteristics of strong tropical cyclones in general, not just annular ones.

[stormkite]

Philippine government faces criticism over slow typhoon response

The Philippines Government is defending itself against claims that its response to Typhoon Haiyan has been largely inadequate.President Benigno Aquino is under growing pressure to speed up the distribution of food, water and medicine to desperate survivors and to get paralysed local governments functioning.He has said the death toll might have been higher had it not been for the evacuation of people and the readying of relief supplies.The Philippines formally asked Washington for help on Saturday, one day after the storm slammed into cities and towns in the central Philippines, the US State Department said.Mr Aquino has also stoked debate over the extent of the casualties, citing a much lower death toll than the 10,000 estimated by local authorities.The official confirmed death toll stood at 2,357 on Thursday, a figure aid workers expect to rise.City administrator Lim, who previously estimated 10,000 people likely died in Tacloban alone, said Mr Aquino may be deliberately downplaying casualties."Of course he doesn't want to create too much panic. Perhaps he is grappling with whether he wants to reduce the panic so that life goes on," he said.Widespread looting of rice stocks and other supplies broke out across hardest-hit Leyte province on Wednesday, despite the deployment of solders to maintain law and order.

While international relief efforts have picked up, many petrol station owners whose businesses were spared have refused to reopen, leaving little fuel for trucks needed to move supplies and medical teams to affected areas. Bodies still litter the streets of Tacloban, while others lie putrefying in body bags outside the broken city hall, awaiting mass burials.
The city government remains decimated, with just 70 workers compared to 2,500 normally, he added. Many were killed, injured, lost family or were simply too overcome with grief to work.
The USS George Washington aircraft has arrived in the Tacloban, with 5,000 sailors and more than 80 aircraft on board. Marine Brigadier General Paul Kennedy says it will significantly improve relief efforts around the devastated coastal city. Japan plans to send up to 1,000 troops as well as naval vessels and aircraft, in what could be Tokyo's biggest post-war military deployment.

United Nations has 'let people down'
Meanwhile, the United Nations has admitted its response to the typhoon disaster in the Philippines had been too slow, amid reports of hunger and thirst among desperate survivors.
The UN's humanitarian chief Valerie Amos said the scale of the disaster and the logistics challenges it posed meant that six days on from the storm, some places remained without help.
"There are still areas that we have not been able to get to where people are in desperate need," she told reporters in Manila "I very much hope that over the next 48 hours that that will change significantly. "I do feel that we have let people down."
Criticism is growing over the pace of aid to Tacloban and other areas that were splintered by Typhoon Haiyan when it swept through the central Philippines last Friday. Thousands of desperate survivors are clamouring to get out of a place where clean drinking water is in short supply and many have no shelter. "The situation is dismal. Those who have been able to leave have done so. Many more are trying. People are extremely desperate for help," Ms Amos said.
"We need to get assistance to them now. They are already saying it has taken too long to arrive. Ensuring a faster delivery is our... immediate priority."However, she added: "There are thousands (of them) but we would never make the claim that we would be able to get to everyone."Ms Amos, who visited Tacloban on Wednesday to see the scale of the disaster, said her staff felt frustrated that supplies were stuck in the capital Manila.The Philippines' shaky infrastructure took a battering in Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall. Many roads were left impassable, cluttered by debris from broken buildings that were destroyed when the ocean surged ashore.


14/11/2013 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013

[Alyono]

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/11/14/police-general-who-predicted-10000-deaths-removed/

more evidence of a death toll coverup. They fired the police official who said 10,000 deaths.

Since the Philippine prez says this isn't that bad, the money I was going to donat to relief efforts is being allocated elsewhere, to more serious disasters. To those in the Philippines, please be sure to relay this message to your self serving president.

[tolakram]

Let's carefully back away from the politics of it and stick to the storm please. Current death toll is 2500+, which is pretty damn bad, and I agree it could easily get to 10,000. There's arguments on both sides as to either a coverup of the scope of the disaster or inflated numbers in order to get more aid. I don't see any good coming from arguing about either opinion and I honestly don't know what to believe at this point, other than the fact that a lot of people perished and a lot more are desperate for aid.

[Gorky]

It is incredibly common for death counts for disasters to be over estimated early on - Katrina, 9/11, Japanese Tsunami... all massively overestimated once the scale of the disaster was evident. There are still idiots out there who believe hundreds died in Andrew but because they were poor/black/illegals etc, it was covered up by the government. It is prudent to only report the confirmed fatalities and not speculate wildly which is exactly what the Philippines government are doing. All the 10000 figures were estimates in the early hours of the disaster during communications blackouts which meant accurate figures could be in no way determined, which the media got a hold of and they now have a life of their own. Will they end up being accurate? Perhaps they might as the toll continues to rise..... but the Philippines is a modern country and the chances that a government could get away with covering up 7500 deaths is frankly ridiculous. As deaths are processed, the death toll will continue to rise until there are no more to report and a final toll will be available. It's pointless speculating until then.

[Extratropical94]

I don't know whether the Weather Channel uses data from official sources or not, but on their website they're currently reporting that the death toll has risen to 4460.

Quote:
Authorities say 4,460 people have been confirmed dead, a figure that is expected to rise, perhaps significantly, when information is collected from other areas of the disaster zone.

[Alyono]

The UN is the source of the 4460 death toll

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013 ... -4400?lite

not a good enough source for Wikipedia, however

[cycloneye]

Here is another news that will have some reaction.

Storm Surge not explained enough says PAGASA Oficial

[somethingfunny]

Why are you so fixated upon the death toll Alyono? Are there other things worth discussing at this point?

[somethingfunny]

Here is another news that will have some reaction.

Storrm Surge not explained enough says PAGASA

This is spot-on.

We saw the lack of awareness about storm surge before the storm in this thread here even. The Tacloban resident, Stormstrike, seemed unaware of the threat until we expressed the point that it would be like a tsunami in terms of effect.

Even some pro meteorologists seemed much more concerned about winds than about surge. While the winds were estimated (not yet confirmed) to be record-breaking, and that's a very dangerous and sexy sounding threat, the biggest threat (as has been proven in virtually every single hurricane ever) is and was storm surge. Especially in a geographic location such as Tacloban, a very low-lying city with the bay narrowing to a funnel in the front-right quadrant of the storm's eyewall. The surge should have surprised absolutely nobody, but the winds were record breaking so I guess when it's "EF-4 or EF-5 strength winds" then all the rules about hide from wind, run from surge just go out the window, huh? Compare the death toll from Guiuan to the death toll from Tacloban. Compare the death toll from Gulfport to the death toll from Moore. The surge is always the premiere threat. Hide from wind, but run from surge. It is not complicated, there is nothing that could mitigate this, not even 170kt winds are less survivable than a 20 foot surge.

[Alyono]

Why are you so fixated upon the death toll Alyono? Are there other things worth discussing at this point?

because is it essential to know the extent of what happened for future mitigation purposes

[somethingfunny]

Why are you so fixated upon the death toll Alyono? Are there other things worth discussing at this point?

because is it essential to know the extent of what happened for future mitigation purposes

No it isn't. It's essential to know that the surge was devastating, but whether it killed 1% or 10% of Tacloban's population... I don't find that to be essential knowledge. I find the surge's height and the extent of inundation essential.

[Alyono]

Why are you so fixated upon the death toll Alyono? Are there other things worth discussing at this point?

because is it essential to know the extent of what happened for future mitigation purposes

No it isn't. It's essential to know that the surge was devastating, but whether it killed 1% or 10% of Tacloban's population... I don't find that to be essential knowledge. I find the surge's height and the extent of inundation essential.

you may not, but a risk manager would, emergency managers would

Where the deaths occurred also would help determine future evacuation zones, etc