WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

i think the storm will turn to a WNW track in the next 24/hours. Haiyan is now getting the attention it deserves and it's only about 1 day and 9 hours since it's birth.

Stay safe xtyphooncyclonex.


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Still turning due west, this is very unexpected!... NO!


Anyway, experienced an F0 tornado, but caused moderate damage over Mandaue and Lapu-lapu Mactan...

[cycloneye]

JTWC 12z best track is up to 90kts and pressure is down to 956 mbs.

| 20131105.1257.mtsat1r.x.ir1km_bw.31WHAIYAN.90kts-956mb-68N-1430E.97pc.jpg |

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC 12z best track is up to 90kts and pressure is down to 956 mbs.

| 20131105.1257.mtsat1r.x.ir1km_bw.31WHAIYAN.90kts-956mb-68N-1430E.97pc.jpg |

Rapidly intensifying! Earlier than expected.. Scary for us =(

[euro6208]

I almost fell off my chair at that increase to 90 knots...

this is now a category 2 equivalent on the SSHS and land won't be a problem...

[dexterlabio]

Latest from JTWC

[cycloneye]

Moving now WNW at 285 degrees.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
1100 PM CHST TUE NOV 5 2013

...TYPHOON HAIYAN UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...AND FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI AND NGULU IN YAP
STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS WILL END SHORTLY AT WOLEAI. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR NGULU.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.5N 143.8E

ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.0
EAST.

TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. HAIYAN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF FAIS AND ULITHI
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 25 MILES. TYPHOON HAIYAN IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[stormstrike]

JTWC 12z best track is up to 90kts and pressure is down to 956 mbs.

| 20131105.1257.mtsat1r.x.ir1km_bw.31WHAIYAN.90kts-956mb-68N-1430E.97pc.jpg |

Rapidly intensifying! Earlier than expected.. Scary for us =(

it's quite scarier for us. i'm from Leyte and this is scaring the heck out of me..
we've never been visited by a typhoon since Frank i guess..

and now this.. looking at JTWC's latest track.. the interval between 08/12z and 07/12z is a lot of time for Haiyan to
gain more strength. possibly higher than 130 kts..

[oaba09]

Everyone from southern luzon to southern visayas needs to prepared because of possible changes in the track...The system is still a few days away so a lot can still happen...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC 12z best track is up to 90kts and pressure is down to 956 mbs.

| 20131105.1257.mtsat1r.x.ir1km_bw.31WHAIYAN.90kts-956mb-68N-1430E.97pc.jpg |

Rapidly intensifying! Earlier than expected.. Scary for us =(

it's quite scarier for us. i'm from Leyte and this is scaring the heck out of me..
we've never been visited by a typhoon since Frank i guess..

and now this.. looking at JTWC's latest track.. the interval between 08/12z and 07/12z is a lot of time for Haiyan to
gain more strength. possibly higher than 130 kts..

Can u understand... Diri na ini maupay! Malalabad an uran ug hangin!

[stormstrike]

Can u understand... Diri na ini maupay! Malalabad an uran ug hangin!

Why do you ask? We're not experiencing here strong winds and rains as of the moment. But yeah it's gonna be bad if Haiyan passes our area.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can u understand... Diri na ini maupay! Malalabad an uran ug hangin!

Why do you ask? We're not experiencing here strong winds and rains as of the moment. But yeah it's gonna be bad if Haiyan passes our area.

Oh sorry I was referring about the scenarion on Friday....

[stormstrike]

Can u understand... Diri na ini maupay! Malalabad an uran ug hangin!

Why do you ask? We're not experiencing here strong winds and rains as of the moment. But yeah it's gonna be bad if Haiyan passes our area.

Oh sorry I was referring about the scenarion on Friday....

Oh. I don't speak Bisaya. Our language here is different from yours but some words are identical.


Anyway, here's the latest ADT for Haiyan:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 7:01:49 N Lon : 142:03:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.2mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 6.0 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 8.6 degrees

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just made my latest webcast on the storm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QNedcz-Ztk[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

wow, I can't wait for the visible image..

[euro6208]

believe it or not, JMA still calling this a 60 knot Severe Tropical Storm when it's been a typhoon (JTWC) for so long...

[euro6208]

Rapidly intensifying Category 2 Typhoon...

WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A RECENTLY DEVELOPED WARM SPOT IN
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. CORE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. A 050816Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WARM SPOT IN THE EIR
AS WELL AS A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 051202Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KTS. PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES
ROSE ONE T-NUMBER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 31W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA, SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COAMPS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY HAIYAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO
TAU 72 OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. TY 31W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, BUT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA NEAR A 110 KNOT INTENSITY. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Using the Latest track from JTWC, landfall should be around the minanut island area in eastern samar province or north of Llorente which is the biggest town near the projected landfall. Haiyan still far out so this will change. Stay tuned...

[Alyono]

truth be told, there is satellite data from 12Z indicating 76 KT max 1 minute winds. JMA may be closer to reality this time

[euro6208]

080
WTPQ33 PGUM 051543
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
200 AM CHST WED NOV 6 2013

...TYPHOON HAIYAN STILL HEADED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR WOLEAI IS CANCELLED AS OF 200 AM CHST.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...AND FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.9N 142.3E

ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.3 EAST.

TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. HAIYAN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS THE CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF FAIS AND ULITHI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON HAIYAN IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
AM.

$$

MCELROY