ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

latitude_20 · #141 Postby **latitude_20** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:44 pm

Yeah, the Weather Recon Squadron operates under "mission essential" directives, so no shutdown for them. Although I'm pretty sure the NOAA research flight operations out of MacDill are shut for now.

#142 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:54 pm

Models keep sliding east with each run...

floridasun78 · #143 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:00 pm

how far east?

#144 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:05 pm

floridasun78 wrote:how far east?

24 hours ago most showed landfall between Louisiana/Alabama and now it's Panhandle/Big Bend area...

blp · #145 Postby **blp** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:10 pm

Nice blowup going up now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

floridasun78 · #146 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:how far east?

24 hours ago most showed landfall between Louisiana/Alabama and now it's Panhandle/Big Bend area...

you all think could go back track from first run that was sw fl area?

#147 Postby **chaser1** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:56 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:how far east?

24 hours ago most showed landfall between Louisiana/Alabama and now it's Panhandle/Big Bend area...

you all think could go back track from first run that was sw fl area?

Could; I doubt it though. I'm thinking more like Big Bend area (North of Tampa)

#148 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:28 am

Turning in for the night, but looking at satellite imagery at this hour, it is apparent that convection is really beginning to build near an apparent LLC near approx 17.5 N 84 W. Beginning to see some curved banding for the first time. Tomorrow will be interesting when Recon gets in there. But, at this time, it looks to be starting to get somewhat organized.

LaBreeze · #149 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:38 am

So, is the front going to make it down to the northern Gulf Coast before 97L makes it? Some mets are saying that the front is not moving as quickly as once thought.

Hurricaneman · #150 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:39 am

I do believe some peeps in Florida especially the Panhandle may get a tropical storm out of this but it shouldn't be too strong due to where the front is set up

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caneman · #151 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:23 am

Really starting to look good. Wonder if we'll get a TD today?

#152 Postby **xironman** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:32 am

The upper level anti-cyclone is pretty evident in this loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12 I think it could have a chance.

#153 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:20 am

Yucatan-Basin Buoy

caneman · #154 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:23 am

You just beat me to it. Was getting ready to post that. Significant pressure fall. Also, look at the Satellite for GOM and there are some greys popping up in the IR image. I think we have take off.

#155 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:29 am

latitude_20 wrote:Yeah, the Weather Recon Squadron operates under "mission essential" directives, so no shutdown for them. Although I'm pretty sure the NOAA research flight operations out of MacDill are shut for now.

thanks, i noticed noaa is shutting down the websites...even the armed forces sports teams are shutdown

sammy126 · #156 Postby **sammy126** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:35 am

Here is a great site for models of 97L Myfoxhurricane.com hope I posted this in the right place.

#157 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:51 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
425 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH TIME RELATED TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FIRST OFF...IT
IS IMPORTANT TO SAY THAT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION WAS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A 50% CHANCES WITHIN THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MEANS AT LEAST REACHING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAGE...IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY INDICATE THE FORECAST OF
A NAMED STORM. THAT BEING SAID...NONE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE
MEMBERS BRING THIS SYSTEM (SHOULD IT DEVELOP) TOWARD OUR COASTLINE
AT THE PRESENT TIME. IF ANY DEVELOPMENT WERE TO OCCUR...IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE IMPACTS WOULD BE "FRINGE" TYPE EFFECTS RELATED TO
SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HIGHER SURF AND
RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG OUR AREA BEACHES. ALL OF THIS WILL BE DEALT
WITH SHOULD THE TIME COME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THE 02/00Z GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH A LOW TRACKING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE BOTH THE 02/00Z
ECMWF AND CMC MOVE A WEAKER OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE
01/18Z DGEX IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND CMC BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER. CONSENSUS FAVORS A BLEND HEAVILY WEIGHED TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE RANGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW CAUTION OR ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SWELLS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.

HOWEVER...ANY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINLY INTO
THE FORECAST AND WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. PERSONS MAKING
LATE WEEK PLANS SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST.

ronjon · #158 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:00 am

Judging by the building convection, the GFS might have the system better simulated now with last nights model runs showing greatest vorticity over western cuba. It certianly appears now that if the LLC develops under the heaviest convection, it will form signifcantly northeast of current model initializations. Have to watch if 97L intensifies for a more eastward track in the GOM.

#159 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:04 am

It had a good DMAX. Now let's see if it can continue organizing during the day.

jhpigott · #160 Postby **jhpigott** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:17 am

The smaller area of convection to the SW appears to be moving due west and has a nice rotation to it. The larger and deeper area of convection to NE appears to be heading more NW. Let's see if it can get stacked today -

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

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