ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[tolakram]

126 hours, saved image

[Rgv20]

12zCMC has it crawling in the Western Gulf

126hrs



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Should start turning West with a building Ridge to its North..132hrs



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

970ish

[Ivanhater]

GFDL Ensembles

[Ivanhater]

[ronjon]

Actually if the initialization is the trop cyclone symbol in that plot everything would be shifted east 100 miles or so.

[ROCK]

thats like a 600 mile spread...lol

[Ivanhater]

Actually if the initialization is the trop cyclone symbol in that plot everything would be shifted east 100 miles or so.

Noticed that as well.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF same as the 12zGFS....splits the 850mb Vorticity in 72hrs.

[CrazyC83]

Is the GFDL trying to make a major hurricane out of it? Looking at the colors, it seems so (on a BAD track too!)

[ROCK]

Is the GFDL trying to make a major hurricane out of it? Looking at the colors, it seems so (on a BAD track too!)

the 12Z GFDL didnt do anything with it.....

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET looks like it wants to split the 850mb Vorticity in 72hrs similar to the Euro and GFS but the difference is that it leaves a stronger vorticity in the BOC.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ROCK]

the 18Z BAMM suite has flipped back to western solution / BAMMD going into STX now





the 12Z GFS ensembles memeber are out but have not updated on this map yet......

[StormTracker]

Actually if the initialization is the trop cyclone symbol in that plot everything would be shifted east 100 miles or so.

Actually if the initialization is the trop cyclone symbol in that plot everything would be shifted east 100 miles or so.

Noticed that as well.

My thoughts too guys! Ya'll beat me to it! ScottNAtlanta started this! IMO, I think we are in for an eastward swing once RECON nails this system down 2morrow! We'll probably be able to visually see the change before RECON!
Not an official forecast...ST

[tolakram]

12Z euro, 120H shows vorticity max going into central La. Again, no low development, but vorticity seems to be much better defined this run, in my amateur opinion. Vorticity charts will be available for free soon after this run is done.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Let's just split the difference between all this move west to south Texas or northeast to Pensacola talk and say somewhere around the central LA coast is the bulleye like the euro shows.

[tolakram]

The 850 wind chart from the euro does show an L off the LA coast at 120 hours. Not sure if that indicates minor development or not.

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity

[CaneCurious]

Anyone think that the SHIPS model is ramping it up too much?

[gatorcane]

Today's HPC snippet about the models and what it expects:

A NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BEING THE MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. THE STATIONARY
UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IMPLIES THAT THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE CARIBBEAN...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IN THE
GULF. IN ANY CASE...HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CAN BE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES IN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. PLEASE CHECK THE NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd