ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Like I said earlier this evening. This is going to turn out just like the last gulf invest from a few weeks ago. A shallow, low level swirl with no moisture. Bring on the winter storms I'm over this garbage. Don't know if I can handle any moreof what 2013 has to offer

I have a feeling we will get an impressive system to develop in the Western Caribbean this month and in fact the GFS has such a system in the long-range with development timeframe coming in gradually. Season far from over. Model runs and details of this system being discussed in Global Model Discussions thread.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Janie2006]

I know we have a lot of lurkers here, so I'm going to say this.

Peeps, panicking helps no one, least of all you. On two separate occasions, at two different service stations in Mobile, regular unleaded gas ran out. Nothing unusual about that, normal hurricane routine. However, the behaviour I saw was atrocious. No, the cashiers are not *hoarding* the regular unleaded gasoline, nor are they attempting to cheat you. You live in hurricane country, you know better than this. Threatening the people providing a vital service won't help anything.

I don't know if this is because of media hype, ignorance, or a combination of both, but it was a disgusting display. Learn to take information and use it wisely, and act like you've got a lick of sense.

[ROCK]

wow... I leave before the 4pm discussion and the GFS has shifted left some to match the EURO....imagine that... I recall the EURO basically weakening this as it approached the coast...whereas the GFS yesterday had the upper high moving with it intenisifying. Looks pretty weak....a decapitated naked swirl...typical for Oct. Westerlies on the way so we can shut down the GOM soon......

have fun in your tropical rain shower Steve!!!

[deltadog03]

Euro did do the best once it caught the idea that something was developed, but yes.....GFS really really blew it so far. This one might all but be over.

[ROCK]

if she doesnt fire something off soon that LLC will spin down....doesnt look promising...

time to hit the gym and get a good pump!!

[jlauderdal]

I know we have a lot of lurkers here, so I'm going to say this.

Peeps, panicking helps no one, least of all you. On two separate occasions, at two different service stations in Mobile, regular unleaded gas ran out. Nothing unusual about that, normal hurricane routine. However, the behaviour I saw was atrocious. No, the cashiers are not *hoarding* the regular unleaded gasoline, nor are they attempting to cheat you. You live in hurricane country, you know better than this. Threatening the people providing a vital service won't help anything.

I don't know if this is because of media hype, ignorance, or a combination of both, but it was a disgusting display. Learn to take information and use it wisely, and act like you've got a lick of sense.

that type of behavior would never occur in south florida..

[floridasun78]

look area rain moving more toward to east toward central fl and south fl and north toward north fl if look at sat pic you see we more cloud moving toward tampa area that mean shear strong from west north fl is cloud less and north gulf coast too

[floridasun78]

north fl having good view stars cloudless sky

[smw1981]

I know we have a lot of lurkers here, so I'm going to say this.

Peeps, panicking helps no one, least of all you. On two separate occasions, at two different service stations in Mobile, regular unleaded gas ran out. Nothing unusual about that, normal hurricane routine. However, the behaviour I saw was atrocious. No, the cashiers are not *hoarding* the regular unleaded gasoline, nor are they attempting to cheat you. You live in hurricane country, you know better than this. Threatening the people providing a vital service won't help anything.

I don't know if this is because of media hype, ignorance, or a combination of both, but it was a disgusting display. Learn to take information and use it wisely, and act like you've got a lick of sense.

I'm not sure which stations you went to, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me for overly dramatic people to be panicking when they think the gas station attendant is hoarding the gas they desperately need, but I will say that I went to both the Mid-town Wal-Mart (during lunch!) and a grocery store today and was surprised at the fact that there were absolutely no lines and all shelves were stocked. I got the sense that no one took this too seriously because it was "just a tropical storm". Of course, every village has their idiots, but I think most Mobilians know what a TS with 50mph winds will bring us and, therefore, prepares accordingly. Poor gas station attendants!

Edited to say: I always think it's funny when people want something and threaten the people they want it from. Yeah, that will work! Keep doing that! Good luck to ya! Haha

[Ntxw]

Looks very ugly on WV. Horror of 2013, more trick than treat.

[monicaei]

I know we have a lot of lurkers here, so I'm going to say this.

Peeps, panicking helps no one, least of all you. On two separate occasions, at two different service stations in Mobile, regular unleaded gas ran out. Nothing unusual about that, normal hurricane routine. However, the behaviour I saw was atrocious. No, the cashiers are not *hoarding* the regular unleaded gasoline, nor are they attempting to cheat you. You live in hurricane country, you know better than this. Threatening the people providing a vital service won't help anything.

I don't know if this is because of media hype, ignorance, or a combination of both, but it was a disgusting display. Learn to take information and use it wisely, and act like you've got a lick of sense.

I saw this kind of behavior ONCE. Post Katrina in Baton Rouge. It was disgusting. A grown man wrestled a bag of ice away from a teenage girl.

The idea that something even remotely similar to that display could occur, PRE TROPICAL STORM, is disturbing. That's really happening somewhere right now? Seriously?

[ninel conde]

Looks very ugly on WV. Horror of 2013, more trick than treat.

http://i44.tinypic.com/ekmaac.gif

people in mobile are panicking over that? i would think they were more hurricane savvy than that.

[MGC]

Despite being mostly naked, Karen is still moving along to the NNW this evening and still has a vigorous low level circulation. Whal little deep convection is displaced well to the SE of the surface vortex. Dry air and shear continue to dominate the western Gulf of Mexico and wreck havoc with Karen. The trough that will pick up Karen is currently cruising though Texas and a squall line have developed across Okalahoma. Karen might have an occasional burst of convection near the circulation center, if not the vortex should slowly begin to spin down and turn to a more easterly heading by dawn. Considering the dry air and shear, I would expect Karen to approach the Louisiana coast a a minimal tropical storm. The cyclone might get a reprieve from some of the shear but not the dry air. Glad to see that this will likely be a dud for the northern Gulf Coast......MGC


The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[MGC]

I was watching both WKRG out of Mobile and WLOX out of Biloxi this evening and both stations are saying there will be 40-60mph winds along the coast this weekend and power outages. We all are still gun shy from that other K named storm......MGC

[cycloneye]

From 10 PM discussion:

KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND NOW
CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LINEAR
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

[ozonepete]

Euro did do the best once it caught the idea that something was developed, but yes.....GFS really really blew it so far. This one might all but be over.

IMHO neither of them have done well so far on this. At times the Euro trended back towards the GFS and vice versa and neither look like they will get the right final solution anyway. While I think both are really great models, I don't think they are yet capable of resolving situations this complicated. Once again shear is so ephemeral that the models still can't handle it well. Thank god in a way. It allows fools like me to get my own two cents in and be smarter than them once in a while. One day they will be indisputable enough that we won't be able to outguess them.

[stormkite]

As with all active tropical storms it's wise to keep a paranoid respect .

[monicaei]

From 10 PM discussion:

KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND NOW
CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LINEAR
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

Ok... If something has been DECAPITATIED, shes officially dead... Right? Lol

[ozonepete]

From 10 PM discussion:

KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND NOW
CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LINEAR
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

Ok... If something has been DECAPITATIED, shes officially dead... Right? Lol

Well it's not a person, lol! Although I love the analogy. The 10PM discussion is really excellent, as almost all of them always are. There is one other solution that could occur: the LLC moving northwestward could dissipate and a new one could form to the northeast and sprout up convection over it. That happens with TDs and weak tropical storms often anyway, so let's see what happens.

[WeatherGuesser]

...KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OE MEXICO...
10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 4
Location: 26.4°N 90.5°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph