ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

I see looking at water vapor the dry air is dissipating to it's north closer to Louisiana and southwest of the system. Dry air remains near the LLC though. Storm has become so lackluster that this all there is to chat about. Lol.

[wxman57]

I know generally weak systems aren't as influenced by steering currents so if this does collapse or weaken significantly, does the storm and moisture trend more west again or is it too far north where it doesn't matter?

No, it would probably move with the upper-level winds, to the NE-E.

[robbielyn]

I see looking at water vapor the dry air is dissipating to it's north closer to Louisiana and southwest of the system. Dry air remains near the LLC though. Storm has become so lackluster that this all there is to chat about. Lol.

thats about it. nothing happening tonight. wouldnt be surprised tomorrow that it dissipates or same as it is now. maybe diurnal max will help it some

[HurriGuy]

Also looking at full scale water vapor, it's time frame of moving north is decreasing. Winds out the southwest are approaching quickly.

[Rail Dawg]

**SIGH**

C'mon 2014...

[Ntxw]

Latest satellite view (RGB)



Meanwhile, strong fall front is blasting its way south and will be through the central gulf later this weekend.

[robbielyn]

we have separation convection and llc parting ways.

[Evil Jeremy]

we have separation convection and llc parting ways.

You are writing Karen off to quickly. Convection is still firing around the SE portion of the CoC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Lets see what Karen looks like after DMAX before declaring her dead.

[floridasun78]

so think if that area rain if get pull east it could reach south fl and central fl?

[wxman57]

we have separation convection and llc parting ways.

You are writing Karen off to quickly. Convection is still firing around the SE portion of the CoC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Lets see what Karen looks like after DMAX before declaring her dead.

People tend to give way too much credit to DMAX (or DMIN). There can be an enhancement of convection at times, but that won't make much difference in moderate to high shear and dry air penetration. If Karen had not been a TS for a few days then I don't think anyone, even the NHC, would be arguing that it should be upgraded based on what we're seeing in the obs offshore or on satellite (or recon). There are no signs that the shear will decrease. Good news for those along the Gulf Coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Somebody tell Karen she needs to make a stage right if she wants to keep her figure and her wig from getting blown off!

[monicaei]

It's pretty much dead, right?

[ozonepete]

It's pretty much dead, right?

It's awfully close. Just looks like hell with very little possibility of coming back imho...

[robbielyn]

there is no convection to the se edge of the center its completely devoid from convection totally separated EJ

[cycloneye]

Doing like Chris. 2013 once again shows up in full force.

[Dean4Storms]

I think I hear Bones coming off the Transporter!

[Dave]

AF & NOAA2 headed home...

[ozonepete]

The main problem right now is that the LLC is actually still moving off northwestward and that is a killer. It should have turned to at least northward movement by now. because it hasn't it's going under major shear. The only thing worth watching for the overnight (if you care anymore) is the LLC direction of movement (which you can follow on RGB satellite quite well even at night.) If that LLC starts veering overnight and takes a pretty good turn to the northeast the convection can reform over it and it could make a last run at intensifying. That's the only option I see. And it's a really slim one. This is one of the most sheared TCs I've ever seen.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Like I said earlier this evening. This is going to turn out just like the last gulf invest from a few weeks ago. A shallow, low level swirl with no moisture. Bring on the winter storms I'm over this garbage. Don't know if I can handle any moreof what 2013 has to offer

[stormkite]

Imo Karen had the same characteristic's of a supercell that has deviated from the mean wind with separate updrafts with opposing rotations.



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